Trump Plus 18 State Turns Senate Toss Up
A Senate seat Republicans have held for decades is suddenly a toss-up six days before the vote. A new Siena College poll of likely voters, released on Wednesday, 28 October 2026, puts Republican Sen. Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews level at 48% each in South Carolina.
It widens the fight for control of the Senate in the 2026 US midterm elections, and it matters to US investors and policy watchers because the Senate confirms officials and passes spending bills. Graham was appointed after her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, died in July 2026, and won the August runoff.
This story is part of our coverage of the 2026 US midterm elections. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide.
Latest: Democrats Need Four Senate Seats
Key Facts
- South Carolina: Siena College poll of likely voters has Graham and Andrews tied at 48%.
- National mood: An Ipsos poll of registered voters gives Democrats 47% and Republicans 36%.
- Election Day: Tuesday, 3 November 2026, six days from 28 October.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gives Democrats 66.5% to win the Senate and 92.5% the House (28 October, 4:22 p.m. ET).
Why South Carolina Is Suddenly in Play
South Carolina is a conservative state: Donald Trump won it by 18 points in 2024, and no Democrat has won a US Senate seat there since 1998. A tie in a likely-voter poll is therefore a warning sign for Republicans.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election forecast run by the University of Virginia, has moved 21 races toward Democrats this week. It shifted South Carolina’s Senate race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.
The Final Week on the Road
President Trump held rallies on Tuesday, 27 October, in Lubbock and Corpus Christi, Texas, backing Republican Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general. Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico, and Republicans have won every statewide race in Texas since 1994.
On Wednesday, 28 October, Trump heads to Chillicothe, Ohio, for a rally at 7:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time. Former President Barack Obama campaigns the same day in Atlanta with Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff and Keisha Lance Bottoms, the Democratic candidate for governor.
The National Mood and the Money
An Ipsos poll of registered voters, fielded 22 to 26 October, shows Democrats ahead 47% to 36% on the generic congressional ballot. Trump’s approval rose one point to 32% in the same survey, and 73% of respondents said the cost of living is heading in the wrong direction.
AdImpact, a firm that tracks political advertising, counts more than US$11.2 billion in midterm ad spending, a record for a midterm cycle. In Kansas, about US$71 million in ads is expected, a state record.
Georgia’s early vote has passed 2 million ballots, about 28% turnout. In Alaska, Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski endorsed Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins for governor.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, priced a Democratic Senate win at 66.5% and a Democratic House win at 92.5% on 28 October at 4:22 p.m. ET. The Senate contract has traded about US$10.4 million and the House contract about US$25.4 million.
Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), priced Graham winning South Carolina by at least one point at 70%. These prices are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
If Democrats take the Senate, the White House would face a chamber able to block nominations and reshape spending bills. A split result would keep markets focused on which chamber each party holds.
Election Day is Tuesday, 3 November 2026. Polling hours are set by each state and locality, so check your state election office.
What Is Not Known
One poll is not a forecast, and a tie leaves South Carolina’s winner open. No official nationwide turnout estimate exists yet.
The polls do not decide which party controls the House or Senate. Final results will depend on turnout and on late-counted ballots.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the new South Carolina poll show?
A Siena College poll of likely voters, released on 28 October 2026, has Republican Sen. Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews tied at 48% each.
When is Election Day for the 2026 midterms?
Election Day is Tuesday, 3 November 2026. Polling hours are set by each state and locality.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief