Key Facts
- Who: South Africa’s Electoral Commission (IEC) and the MK party of former president Jacob Zuma.
- What: The IEC refused MK’s request to correct, add and replace candidates on its lists.
- Why it matters: A Constitutional Court ruling restored 181 ANC candidates, but the IEC says it did not reopen nominations.
- When: The complaint was reported on 24 October; voting is Wednesday, 4 November 2026.
- Scale: 136,790 candidates compete for 10,526 council seats in 257 municipalities.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket and Kalshi put Helen Zille at about 51% to be Johannesburg mayor (25 October 2026, 2:22 a.m. ET).
Election Body Denies Party Plea
South Africa’s Electoral Commission (IEC) has rejected a request by the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, founded by former president Jacob Zuma, to amend its candidate lists for the 4 November local elections. MK officials had sought to correct nominations, add omitted candidates and replace deceased candidates.
The IEC said the Constitutional Court’s ruling on the African National Congress (ANC) did not reopen nominations in general. It said the ruling only restored nominations that had already been captured on its online system before the deadline.
The party’s complaint was reported on Saturday 24 October. No court order overturning the IEC’s decision has been reported.
Parliament Backs Election Readiness
Parliament said on 24 October that it was confident in the IEC’s readiness after three committees visited the commission on Friday 23 October. They were the Portfolio Committee on Home Affairs, the Portfolio Committee on Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs, and the Select Committee on Security and Justice.
Committee chairperson Mosa Chabane said Parliament was confident the IEC would deliver free and fair elections. He said problems might arise, but the IEC would mitigate them.
Election Timetable And Scale
Voting is fixed for Wednesday, 4 November 2026. Special voting for those who cannot vote on the day is scheduled for 2 and 3 November.
The election covers more than 29 million registered voters, 136,790 candidates and 10,526 council seats across 257 municipalities. The IEC approved 2,655,067 special-vote applications after the window closed on 12 October, 131% more than the 1,147,759 approved in 2021.
Where The Polls Stood
A MarkData poll for eNCA, with fieldwork from 12 August to 10 September and reported on 18 October, put the DA at 35% in Johannesburg. The ANC was at 22%, MK and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) at about 12% each, and ActionSA at about 10%.
In Nelson Mandela Bay, the DA and ANC were each at about 37% in the figures discussed by EWN on 22 October. Analyst Melanie Verwoerd said sample size and methodology matter, particularly where metro-level samples are below 1,000 respondents.
What Prediction Markets Say
Traders on Polymarket put Helen Zille, the Democratic Alliance (DA) candidate, at 51.5% to become Johannesburg’s next mayor, ahead of David Makhura at 15.7% and Herman Mashaba at 7.0%. Kalshi, a market regulated in the US by the CFTC, had Zille at 51.0%, Makhura at 14.0% and Mashaba at 7.0%.
Polymarket had about US$135,000 traded and Kalshi about 13,500 contracts, as of 2:22 a.m. ET on 25 October 2026. These are bets on the mayoral race, not on the candidate-list dispute, and they are not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
For US readers, the dispute shows the strain on South Africa’s election machinery ten days before voting. The IEC is also managing a Constitutional Court ruling that restored 181 ANC candidates and required about 6.6 million extra ballot papers.
Chief Electoral Officer Sy Mamabolo expects printing to finish by 30 October, four days before voting. Chairperson Mosotho Moepya said on 17 October that logistical preparations had been significantly affected.
What Is Not Known
The number of MK candidates affected by the rejected amendments has not been made public. It is not clear whether MK will seek urgent judicial relief.
The effect of the late ANC reinstatements and extra printing on ballot delivery by 4 November remains unresolved. Coalition outcomes in Johannesburg, Durban and Nelson Mandela Bay are uncertain, and the polls above are snapshots of voting intentions, not forecasts.
Sources
EWN (17, 19, 22 and 24 October 2026), IOL (24 October 2026), TimesLive (18 October 2026), SAnews and the Electoral Commission of South Africa. Prediction-market prices from Polymarket and Kalshi.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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Frequently Asked Questions
Why did the IEC reject the MK party’s request?
The IEC said the Constitutional Court’s ANC ruling did not reopen the nomination process generally. It said the ruling only restored nominations already captured on its online system before the deadline.
When is South Africa’s local government election?
Voting is fixed for Wednesday, 4 November 2026. Special voting is scheduled for 2 and 3 November.
What do polls say about Johannesburg?
A MarkData poll for eNCA, with fieldwork from 12 August to 10 September, put the DA at 35% and the ANC at 22%. These are snapshots of voting intentions, not forecasts.
Who do prediction markets favour for Johannesburg mayor?
On 25 October 2026, Polymarket put Helen Zille at 51.5% and Kalshi at 51.0%. These are market prices, not poll results.