Ibovespa Dips as Commodity Heavyweights Diverge Amid Global Tensions

The Brazilian stock market closed Tuesday with the Ibovespa at 138,840.02 points, a 0.30% decline, as reported by official B3 data.

This drop followed increased risk aversion after news of possible direct United States involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, which drove investors to seek safer assets.

The dollar appreciated to R$5.4968, up 0.20% against the real, reflecting this shift in sentiment. Petrobras shares gained over 2% as oil prices climbed, while Vale lost more than 4% due to falling iron ore prices and heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

Usiminas led the losses with a 5.92% drop, pressured by both commodity weakness and a downgrade from Itaú BBA. Magazine Luiza and CVC Brasil also posted significant declines, at 7.07% and 8.33% respectively, as the retail and travel sectors faced renewed headwinds.

Conversely, JBS, BRF, and Marfrig rose between 3% and 4.4% on strong quarterly results and improved export prospects. Gol shares jumped 12.1% after the company exited bankruptcy protection.

Trading volume reached approximately R$10.7 billion, aligning with recent averages. The iShares Ibovespa ETF (BOVA11) recorded a modest outflow of 0.41%, though its five-day net change remained positive at 0.87%.

Brazil’s Stock Market Shows Bullish Signs Despite Global Volatility

Foreign investors reversed last week’s trend and became net buyers, bringing in about R$780 million. Global equity benchmarks also faced pressure. The S&P 500 fell 0.84%, the Dow Jones lost 0.70%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.91%.

European equities mirrored this caution, with the Stoxx 600 down 0.85%. In Asia, the Nikkei rose 0.59% while the Hang Seng slipped 0.34%. The Bank of Japan’s decision to hold rates steady did little to calm nerves.

Technical analysis of the Ibovespa daily chart shows the index remains above its 200-day moving average, confirming a longer-term uptrend.

The 4-hour chart indicates a corrective pullback after testing resistance near 140,000 points, but the index closed above key moving averages, suggesting underlying bullishness.

The MACD on the 4-hour chart shows a mild bullish crossover, while the RSI hovers near 58, indicating no overbought conditions. On the daily chart, the MACD remains slightly negative, reflecting recent consolidation, and the RSI sits at 59, in neutral territory.

Immediate support lies at 138,150 points, with resistance at 139,500 and a record high at 140,110. A close above 139,250 could signal a retest of all-time highs, while a drop below 137,200 would indicate a deeper correction.

Brazil’s market performance lagged global peers, with commodity-linked stocks driving volatility. Investors focused on fundamentals, including domestic political developments and expectations for the central bank’s next interest rate move.

The Chamber of Deputies advanced a bill to overturn a government decree raising the IOF tax, but a final decision will come in July. This backdrop, combined with macroeconomic uncertainty, shaped a cautious session for Brazilian equities.

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