UNITED STATES · POLITICS
Key Facts
- What happened Democrats are projected to win the House and Senate, so they would name the committee chairs.
- When The new Congress takes office in early January, and the House then elects its Speaker, its presiding officer.
- The Speaker Hakeem Jeffries, the House Democratic leader, launched his bid for Speaker on Wednesday 4 November.
- The chairs Each committee’s top Democrat is in line for the gavel, but party votes decide.
- Prediction markets Polymarket, a US betting market, gives Jeffries a 93.7% chance of becoming Speaker (6 November, 5:23 a.m. ET).
Democrats are projected to control both chambers of the US Congress, and that would hand them the committee gavels for the next two years. A gavel is the small hammer a chair uses to open a meeting, and it stands for the power to run hearings and set the agenda.
For US readers, the chairs decide who writes the spending bills, who questions the Trump administration and which tax and trade ideas get a hearing. Official results and the committee lists are not final, so this guide separates what is settled from what is only expected.
What Is Settled and What Is Not
Democrats are projected to win the House and the Senate after the vote on Tuesday 3 November 2026, and counting continues in close races. Before the vote Republicans held 53 of the Senate’s 100 seats, and state election offices still have to certify the official results.
The new Congress, the 120th, begins its two-year term in early January 2027. Under the 20th Amendment, the term begins at noon on 3 January unless Congress sets another day by law.
Who Becomes Speaker
The House elects its Speaker, the presiding officer and the most powerful member of the chamber, when the new Congress meets. Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the Democratic leader since 2023, launched his bid in a letter to colleagues on Wednesday 4 November.
House Democrats will hold closed-door votes on their leaders, and the full House votes on the Speaker in January. Traders on both major US prediction markets expect Jeffries to win.
The House Gavels to Watch
Each of these Democrats is the party’s top member on the committee today, which is the usual first step to chairing it. The list comes from the committee rosters of the current Congress.
- Judiciary (courts, immigration law, impeachment): Jamie Raskin of Maryland.
- Appropriations (the annual spending bills): Rosa DeLauro of Connecticut.
- Oversight and Government Reform (investigations of the executive branch): Robert Garcia of California.
- Ways and Means (taxes and trade): Richard Neal of Massachusetts.
- Foreign Affairs (diplomacy, aid and sanctions): Gregory Meeks of New York.
The top Democrat does not get the gavel automatically, because the party caucus, the meeting of all its House members, must vote, and it has overruled seniority before. In June 2025 Democrats picked Garcia as their Oversight leader over the more senior Stephen Lynch of Massachusetts by 150 votes to 63, after the death of Gerry Connolly, the Virginia Democrat who held the post.
Senate Gavels and Retirements
Republican John Thune of South Dakota stays Senate majority leader until the new Congress starts. Senate Democrats then choose their chairs in their own party meetings.
On Judiciary, Dick Durbin of Illinois is retiring at the end of his term, and Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island has said he will seek the top Democratic job. On the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, which handles diplomacy and treaties, Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire is also retiring, so that post is open.
Ron Wyden of Oregon is the top Democrat on the Finance Committee, which handles taxes, trade and health programs, and he is first in line if Democrats choose him. No Senate chair is official until Democrats vote.
What a New Majority Can Open
A chair controls the hearing schedule, so the new majority can call administration officials and other witnesses to testify. It can also ask agencies for documents, using a subpoena (a legal order to hand them over), although a fight with the White House can end up in court.
Any bill still needs both chambers and the president’s signature, and Donald Trump can veto it. Overriding a veto takes two-thirds of the House and of the Senate, which Democrats are not projected to hold.
Our analysis of whether a Democratic Congress can limit Trump’s tariffs covers the trade side in detail. Tariffs rest largely on executive powers, so a committee hearing does not change them by itself.
What It Means for You
If you own US stocks or funds, committee control shapes the tax, spending and trade debates of 2027, but no law changes on the day a chair is named. Appropriations and Ways and Means are the two committees to watch.
Readers with ties to Latin America or Africa should follow Foreign Affairs and Foreign Relations, which hold hearings on aid, sanctions and migration. Our guide to what the midterms mean for Latin America explains the trade link.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket gives Hakeem Jeffries a 93.7% chance of being Speaker after the midterms, with US$38,488 traded. Kalshi, regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal derivatives regulator, prices Jeffries at 95.3% in its next new Speaker market (6 November, 5:23 a.m. ET).
On Polymarket, Chuck Schumer of New York, the Senate Democratic leader, is priced at 81.5% to be the next Senate majority leader, with US$254,858 traded. These prices are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
It is not known which chairs the caucuses will actually pick, because those votes follow the leadership elections. The final seat counts, and so the size of each majority, are also not settled.
It is unclear how far Democrats will stick to seniority, given the 2025 Oversight vote. House Democrats have not announced a date for their leadership vote, and the calendar of committee hearings for early 2027 has not been published.
What to Watch
- After the election: House Democrats hold closed-door votes on their leaders (date not yet announced).
- Before January: each party names its committee chairs and members.
- Early January 2027: the 120th Congress is sworn in and the House votes for Speaker.
More: US midterms 2026 coverage. See also Democrats Projected to Win US Congress and Can a Democratic Congress Limit Trump’s Tariffs?, plus what the midterms mean for Latin America.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who Will Be Speaker of the House?
Hakeem Jeffries, the House Democratic leader, launched his bid on 4 November 2026. The full House votes in January, and prediction markets rate him a strong favourite.
Who Chooses Committee Chairs?
Each party’s caucus, the group of its members in a chamber, picks its own chairs. The majority party’s choices become the chairs, so Democrats would pick them if projections hold.
Which Committees Matter Most to Households?
Appropriations writes spending bills, and Ways and Means in the House and Finance in the Senate handle taxes. Judiciary and Foreign Affairs shape immigration and foreign policy.
Can the New Majority Pass Laws Without Trump?
Not on its own. A bill needs both chambers and the president’s signature, and overriding a veto takes two-thirds of each chamber.
Sources: US Constitution, 20th Amendment (National Archives); Clerk of the US House of Representatives; House committee rosters; Polymarket, Speaker market; Kalshi, next Speaker market; Polymarket, Senate majority leader market. Retrieved 6 November 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief