Gold Falls 0.65% to US$3,922 as US Yields Rise | Gold & Silver, Nov 3
Key Facts
- Gold is 28.9% below its peak: it fell -0.65% on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, and sits 28.9% under its 28 January high of 5,513.
- Silver’s last verified spot close was US$50.63 on 2 November, up 3.18% from its 30 October close of 49.07, but the SLV silver fund fell 1.60% on Tuesday, so the bounce faded.
- Yields were the brake: the US 10-year Treasury yield rose 7 basis points to 4.97%, which makes a metal that pays no interest less attractive.
- The dollar edged up: the US dollar index gained 0.14% to 101.89, making metals dearer for buyers using other currencies.
- Mexico and Peru dominate silver: Mexico mined 172.9 million ounces in 2025 and Peru 130 million, so a price shock lands hardest in Mexico City and Lima.
- History is mildly encouraging: after 49 earlier gold falls of this size, the price was higher 20 sessions later in 28 cases, or 57%.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket puts an 79.5% chance on gold touching US$4,000 in November (7:55 p.m. ET, 3 November).
Today’s Focus
Gold ended Tuesday, November 3, 2026 down -0.65%, its second straight session below US$4,000 an ounce. It is now 28.9% below its record-setting 28 January high of 5,513.
Silver spot has no verified Tuesday close in our data. Its last close, US$50.63 on Monday 2 November, was up 3.18% from Friday’s close of 49.07, but the SLV silver fund fell 1.60% on Tuesday. Silver remains 55.8% below its 28 January high of 114.59, more than half its peak value gone.
The main brake is the price of money. With the US 10-year yield at 4.97%, investors earn a solid return on government bonds, while gold and silver pay nothing for being held.
What matters today. For a Mexican or Peruvian silver miner, the metal’s fall from its January peak matters more than one day’s bounce.
01 The session in one read
Think of gold as a very expensive savings account that pays no interest. When government bonds yield 4.97%, the case for holding it weakens, and that is the pressure it met on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Gold slipped -0.65% and closed under US$4,000 for the second day running. The largest gold-backed fund, GLD, closed at 359.26, down 0.66%, so ordinary investors moved with the metal.
Silver’s last verified spot close, on Monday, was US$50.63, up 3.18% from Friday’s low. On Tuesday the SLV silver fund lost 1.60%, so the bounce did not last. Silver is a smaller, jumpier market, and it often swings sharply after a heavy fall.
Gold is behaving like a market that is still digesting a huge January surge, with high bond yields and a slightly firmer dollar blocking any sustained rebound. Silver’s earlier bounce faded on Tuesday, when the SLV fund fell 1.60%, and the metal is still down 23.1% over 60 sessions. The variable to watch is the 10-year Treasury yield: a clear move back below 4.97% would ease the pressure on both metals.
02 The board
Gold is -0.65% on the day, and it has now fallen 3.46% over five sessions, 5.85% over 20 and 10.3% over 60. That is a steady slide, not a single bad day.
Silver’s 3.18% gain from 30 October to 2 November was its first rise after a run of weakness, but the SLV fund’s 1.60% fall on Tuesday shows it did not hold. Closing only 3.2% above Friday’s close of 49.07 shows how thin the cushion is.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | US$3,922/oz | -0.65% |
| Silver (last verified close, 2 Nov) | US$50.63/oz | +3.18% since 30 Oct |
Source: RT close, 2026-11-03. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 165,528.92 | -1.42% | +19.56% | 167,921.80 | 178,526 | 175,157 | — |
| IPSA | 10,365.73 | -0.09% | — | 10,375.55 | 10,722 | 10,633 | — |
| IPC MEX | 70,848.90 | +1.53% | +12.74% | 69,779.20 | 70,008 | 69,383 | 49,372,306 |
| MERVAL | 2,848,945 | — | +12.65% | 2,859,051 | — | — | — |
| COLCAP | 2,527.66 | +1.47% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.34 | -1.32% | -0.84% | 5.42 | 5.42 | 5.30 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +7.53% | -4.87% | 5.54 | 6.04 | 5.92 | — |
| USD/MXN | 18.69 | +0.62% | +1.45% | 18.57 | 18.69 | 18.54 | — |
| USD/CLP | 983.47 | -0.57% | +5.64% | 989.13 | 991.87 | 979.07 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,149 | +3.06% | -18.02% | 3,056 | 3,173 | 3,111 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.45 | +0.17% | +3.85% | 3.44 | 3.45 | 3.44 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,537 | -0.28% | +3.77% | 1,541 | 1,541 | 1,537 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.21 | +3.57% | +2.29% | 38.83 | 40.21 | 40.08 | — |
| USD/PYG | 5,803 | +3.78% | -16.54% | 5,592 | 5,803 | 5,735 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.97 | +4.93% | +77.92% | 11.41 | 11.97 | 11.82 | — |
| USD/DOP | 60.54 | +1.83% | -4.34% | 59.45 | 61.14 | 59.85 | — |
| USD/CRC | 451.24 | +2.13% | -7.80% | 441.83 | 451.40 | 450.04 | — |
| USD/GTQ | 7.64 | +3.23% | +2.18% | 7.40 | 7.64 | 7.64 | — |
03 Why it moved
First and heaviest is the cost of holding metal. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 7 basis points to 4.97%, and the dollar index rose 0.14% to 101.89, so gold lost on both counts.
Second is demand fatigue at these prices. Specialist reporting this week points to India, a giant buyer of gold jewellery, heading for a six-year low in demand because of the price rise, and the World Gold Council’s third-quarter demand review is on readers’ desks.
The conflicting signal is silver’s earlier bounce. Spot silver rose 3.18% from 30 October to 2 November, but the SLV fund’s 1.60% fall on Tuesday suggests the bargain-hunting after a 16.90% fall in 20 sessions faded.
Safe-haven demand did not rescue gold either. The VIX fear gauge fell 1.51% to 20.83 on the day, even though it is up 18.89% over five sessions, and the S&P 500 rose 0.36% to 7,569.
Our confidence is medium: yields and the dollar explain gold well, while the silver bounce is our best reading of the evidence.
04 The trend behind it
Gold peaked at 5,513 on 28 January and has since lost 28.9%. Its 12-month low is 3,875, set on 30 October, and Tuesday’s close is 1.2% above that.
This is a continuation, not a new phase: the metal is down 10.3% over 60 sessions and has fallen 5.85% over the last 20. Silver is the more dramatic case, down 55.8% from its 114.59 peak on the same January day.
RT’s own price history since 2007 gives some perspective. Gold has fallen at least this much in 20 sessions on 49 earlier occasions and was higher 20 sessions later in 28 of them, or 57%, with a median gain of 1.6% and a worst case of a 12.9% further fall.
Silver’s record is stronger: of 15 earlier falls this big, 11 were followed by a higher price 20 sessions later, or 73%, with a median gain of 5.1% and a worst case of 19.9% lower. History is not a forecast.
05 What it means for Latin America
Mexico was the world’s top silver producer in 2025 with 172.9 million ounces, about a fifth of global supply. Peru was second with 130 million ounces and China third with 113 million, according to the Silver Institute’s World Silver Survey 2026.
Mexican output fell 5%, its third annual decline in a row, blamed on operational disruption, government policy and falling ore grades. A weak price makes those problems harder to fix.
Peru’s output rose 7%, mostly silver mined as a by-product of copper. With copper holding above US$14,000, Peruvian miners are cushioned in a way that pure silver producers are not.
The Silver Institute also sees a market deficit of 40.3 million ounces in 2025, widening to 46.3 million in 2026, meaning demand exceeds supply. That is the long-term argument for a recovery, though we have not checked the report itself.
06 The names to watch
In Mexico, the silver producers Fresnillo and Peñoles are the most direct way the market reads this price move. In Peru, Buenaventura and Southern Copper show the mix of silver and copper.
For ordinary savers, gold funds such as GLD track the metal’s fall almost exactly, as the 0.66% drop in GLD shows. Travellers and jewellery buyers in Latin America should note that the metal’s price in local currency also depends on the dollar, which edged up on the day.
07 What would end it
The first line to watch for gold is 3,875, the 30 October low; a close below it would open the way to fresh lows. Resistance is the round US$4,000 mark that gold failed to hold for a second day.
For silver, the recent floor is 49.07, set on 30 October, and the ceiling is far away at 114.59. The one thing that would change the picture is a sustained fall in the 10-year yield from 4.97%.
Watch the next US jobs and inflation reports and the next Federal Reserve meeting, which set the path for yields. Does the slide stop? History says rebounds are more likely than not, but nothing yet shows the turn.
08 What to watch
- US 10-year yield: A move below 4.97% would ease the main pressure on both metals.
- Gold at 3,875: A close below the 30 October low would confirm further weakness.
- Silver at 49.07: Holding above Friday’s close would show the bounce has legs.
- Mexican and Peruvian output: Mexico’s third straight fall and Peru’s 7% rise show who gains from any rebound.
- US labour data: The US JOLTs report (the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) on job openings (forecast 7.13 million, previous 7.079 million) and quits (forecast 3.05 million, previous 3.066 million) had no published readings in the RT economic calendar when we wrote; a weaker labour market would support gold through lower rate expectations.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a prediction market where users bet real money, shows an 79.5% chance that gold touches US$4,000 an ounce at some point in November. It prices a 69.5% chance of a dip to US$3,900 and 58.5% for US$3,800, with US$45,547 traded. Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), prices a year-end gold price of US$4,000 or above at 65%, with 389,678 contracts traded. Prices were read at 7:55 p.m. ET on 3 November 2026. These are bets, not forecasts.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did gold fall on Tuesday, November 3, 2026?
The 10-year US Treasury yield rose 7 basis points to 4.97% and the dollar index gained 0.14%, which weighed on a metal that pays no interest.
Did silver rise when gold fell?
Spot silver’s last verified close was US$50.63 on 2 November, up 3.18% since 30 October, but the SLV fund fell 1.60% on Tuesday. Silver remains 55.8% below its January high.
Which Latin American countries matter most for silver?
Mexico mined 172.9 million ounces in 2025 and Peru 130 million, making them first and second in the world.
Is this a good moment to buy?
History is not a forecast, but gold was higher 20 sessions later in 57% of comparable falls and silver in 73%.
Market data: The Rio Times
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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