Gold Fund Rises 0.8% as Silver Fund Slips 0.5% | Gold & Silver Wrap, Nov 5
Key Facts
- Silver sits 55.6% below its January peak. The silver tracker is also 7.8% above its 12-month low, a level touched exactly a year ago, on 6 November 2025.
- Gold rose while silver slipped on Thursday, 5 November 2026. The split shows investors treating gold as shelter and silver as a factory metal at risk.
- Shares fell hard. The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% as investors ran for cover from the tech sell-off.
- Bond yields eased. The US 10-year Treasury yield fell 4 basis points to 4.85%, which lowers the cost of holding gold.
- History leans mildly positive for silver. After 33 earlier falls this large, silver was higher 20 sessions later in 24 cases, or 73%.
- Mexico and Peru sit at the centre of the silver story. They are the world’s top two silver miners, so their producers feel every swing.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket, where users bet real money, puts 66.5% on gold touching US$4,200 an ounce in November and 72.2% on silver touching US$54 (US$85,148 and US$81,170 traded, 7:59 p.m. ET, 5 November).
Today’s Focus
Gold edged higher on Thursday, 5 November 2026, while silver slipped, as a savage fall in shares sent investors looking for safety. Gold plays that role; silver, which is also used in solar panels and electronics, gets sold when growth worries rise.
The pull came from three directions: a softer dollar, falling bond yields and fear. The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, jumped 69.66% in a single day to 28.18.
For Latin America the split matters because Mexico and Peru are the world’s two largest silver producers. Their mining shares and export earnings follow silver, not gold.
What matters today. Gold is behaving like a refuge again, but silver, still more than half below its January peak, is trading as a growth bet.
01 The session in one read
Wall Street had a brutal Thursday, and gold was one of the few places to hide. The S&P 500 fell hardest in technology and artificial-intelligence names, and investors reached for assets that do not depend on corporate profits.
Silver told a different story. It is half precious metal and half industrial input, so a sell-off driven by worries over factories and chips pulled it down even as gold rose.
The day’s evidence points to a flight to safety that helped gold and a cash-raising sale that hurt silver. Neither metal is in a clean trend: gold is rebuilding from a recent low, while silver is still working off a spectacular January spike. The variable to watch is the US jobs report due today, Friday, 6 November, because it will decide whether markets keep trimming bets on a December interest-rate rise.
02 The board
The gold tracker, the SPDR GLD fund, closed at US$375.49, up 0.81%. It has now risen two sessions in a row.
The silver tracker, the SLV fund, closed at US$46.93, down 0.49%. Its fall was small, but it came on a day when its safe-haven cousin gained.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Gold (GLD tracker) | US$375.49 | +0.81% |
| Silver (SLV tracker) | US$46.93 | -0.49% |
Source: RT close, 2026-11-05. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 166,191.45 | -0.82% | +8.41% | 167,563.47 | 168,994 | 166,190 | — |
| IPSA | 10,465.26 | -1.52% | — | 10,627.08 | 10,741 | 10,346 | — |
| IPC MEX | 71,033.20 | +0.30% | +12.16% | 70,819.80 | 71,422 | 70,331 | 182,333,478 |
| MERVAL | 2,848,945 | — | -6.54% | 2,859,051 | — | — | — |
| COLCAP | 2,484.43 | -0.88% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.49 | +0.51% | +2.40% | 5.46 | 5.49 | 5.49 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 6.17 | +0.44% | +0.25% | 6.14 | 6.17 | 6.16 | — |
| USD/MXN | 18.74 | +0.65% | +0.81% | 18.62 | 18.79 | 18.71 | — |
| USD/CLP | 977.69 | +1.16% | +3.63% | 966.50 | 977.69 | 977.69 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,230 | -0.63% | -15.73% | 3,250 | 3,230 | 3,230 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.44 | -0.08% | +3.83% | 3.44 | 3.44 | 3.44 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,545 | -0.19% | +6.46% | 1,548 | 1,547 | 1,544 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.22 | +3.24% | +2.50% | 38.96 | 40.26 | 40.22 | — |
| USD/PYG | 6,358 | +9.88% | -8.70% | 5,787 | 6,358 | 6,031 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.92 | +1.74% | +77.02% | 11.72 | 12.00 | 11.92 | — |
| USD/DOP | 59.79 | -1.17% | -6.65% | 60.50 | 59.79 | 59.79 | — |
| USD/CRC | 449.63 | +2.27% | -8.18% | 439.66 | 450.45 | 448.95 | — |
| USD/GTQ | 7.64 | +3.16% | +2.07% | 7.41 | 7.64 | 7.64 | — |
03 Why it moved
Cause one, with fairly high confidence, was fear. The VIX surge and the equity rout drove money towards gold.
Cause two was the cost of holding gold, which pays no interest. The ten-year yield fell by 10 basis points over five sessions. US weekly jobless claims (forecast 196,000, previous 194,000) were also due on the day; the result was not yet in the RT economic calendar when we wrote this.
Cause three, with medium confidence, explains silver. Investors appear to have sold it to raise cash against stock losses and on worries about industrial demand.
One signal does not fit. The US dollar index, a gauge of the dollar against major currencies, finished flat at 101.56 on the day, having slipped 0.46% over five sessions, so the dollar was a gentle help rather than the driver.
04 The trend behind it
Gold is 24.3% below its 12-month high of US$495.90 on the tracker, set on 29 January. It is still 5.5% above its 12-month low of US$355.78, touched on 30 October, and has gained 1.88% in five sessions, though it is down 7.3% over 60.
Silver is the more dramatic case: its tracker peaked at US$105.60 on 28 January and has lost 20.5% in 60 sessions. That makes this a long unwinding of a speculative surge, not a new shock.
Here is our own history, which is not a forecast. Silver has now fallen 12.2% in 20 sessions, and in the 33 earlier cases of a drop that large, it was higher 20 sessions later in 24 of them, or 73%, with a median gain of 4.2%. The worst outcome was a further 20.7% fall, the best a 18.7% rise.
05 What it means for Latin America
Mexico is the world’s top silver producer and Peru ranks second, so a weak silver price squeezes mining revenue, royalties and the share prices of listed miners such as Mexico’s Fresnillo, a silver producer, and Peru’s Buenaventura, a gold and silver producer.
The Silver Institute, the industry body for silver, says in its latest annual survey that the world still consumes more silver than mines and recycling supply, and it expects the shortfall to widen this year. That gap is the long-term argument for miners, even on days like Thursday.
Oil producers such as Brazil, Colombia and Mexico earn more when crude rises.
06 The names to watch
Watch the two trackers first: the SPDR GLD fund for gold and the SLV fund for silver. Both are proxies, not spot prices, but they move with the metals.
Then watch Fresnillo and Buenaventura, which give a direct read on Latin American silver and gold earnings, and the USO fund, which tracks US crude oil.
07 What would end it
For gold, a close below the 12-month low of US$355.78 would cancel the recovery, while a push back towards US$495.90 would need a sustained fall in yields. For silver, the line to defend is US$43.55, the 12-month low from a year ago.
The next big test is the US jobs report today, Friday, 6 November: strong hiring would revive rate-rise bets and hurt both metals. A calm in shares would end gold’s safe-haven bid, so the honest answer is that this pattern stops when the stock market stops falling.
08 What to watch
- US jobs report: Released today, Friday, 6 November; strong hiring would lift yields and pressure both metals.
- Ten-year Treasury yield: A move back above 4.85% would hurt gold, which pays no interest.
- VIX fear gauge: If it falls back from 28.18, the safe-haven case for gold weakens.
- Silver tracker low: A close below US$43.55 would break the 12-month low.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a prediction market where users bet real money, shows a 66.5% chance that gold touches US$4,200 an ounce at some point in November and a 67.5% chance that it dips to US$4,000, with US$85,148 traded. For silver it shows 72.2% for a touch of US$54 and 70.0% for a dip to US$50, with US$81,170 traded.
Prices were read at 7:59 p.m. ET on 5 November 2026. These are bets, not forecasts.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did gold rise while silver fell?
Gold is a classic refuge when shares tumble, while silver is also used in industry and was sold on growth worries and to raise cash.
Which countries mine the most silver?
Mexico is first and Peru second, according to the Silver Institute’s latest survey.
Do falling yields help gold?
Yes. Gold pays no interest, so lower bond yields make it relatively more attractive.
Is silver likely to rebound?
History is not a forecast, but in 24 of 33 earlier cases of a comparable fall, silver was higher 20 sessions later.
Market data: The Rio Times
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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