Colombian Peso Slips to 3,269 per Dollar | Colombia Market Report, Nov 9
Key Facts
- The Colombian peso weakened on Monday 9 November as the dollar closed at 3,269.21 pesos, 0.97% above the official rate of 3,237.83 that applied for the day.
- Oil was the drag because the US oil fund USO lost 3.87% and oil is Colombia’s biggest export.
- Wall Street rallied anyway with the S&P 500 up 2.35% and the VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, down 22.31% to 19.92.
- The peso remains far stronger than a year ago because the dollar is still down about 13% since the end of 2025.
- Inflation edged up to 6.30% in October from 6.29% in September, the national statistics office DANE reported, a touch below the 6.4% economists expected.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket, a platform where users bet real money, puts 65.0% on no change in Colombia’s interest rate in December and 32.4% on a 0.25-point rise (US$39,656 traded, 8:21 p.m. ET, 9 November 2026).
Today’s Focus
Colombia’s peso lost ground on Monday 9 November, even as stock markets elsewhere in the Americas surged. The US dollar closed at 3,269.21 pesos, which is 31.38 pesos above the official rate (the TRM, set by the central bank) of 3,237.83.
The official rate is set from the previous trading day, which is why Monday’s close can differ from it.
One reason sits in the oil market. Colombia depends on crude for a large share of its export earnings, and the USO fund, which tracks US crude, fell 3.87%.
We could not verify the close of the COLCAP, the index of Colombia’s largest listed companies, so this report leaves it out rather than guess.
What matters today. The peso is following oil more than Wall Street, so a further slide in crude would keep pressure on it.
01 The session in one read
Think of the peso as a scoreboard for how investors feel about Colombia’s economy and its oil income. On Monday it moved against the global mood.
Wall Street cheered. The S&P 500, the main US stock index, rose 2.35% to 7,550, and the VIX fell to 19.92, a sign that investors were calmer.
Yet Colombian pesos were sold, and the dollar ended the day at 3,269.21 pesos. The gap between the global rally and the weaker peso is the story.
The move fits oil weakness better than any global driver, because the dollar index also fell on the day and normally helps emerging-market currencies.
The honest limit is that we have no verified COLCAP close, so we cannot say whether Colombian shares followed the peso. The variable to watch is the oil price, which sets the tone for Colombia’s export income.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| US dollar vs peso (USD/COP) | 3,269.21 | +0.97% | Peso weaker; change measured against the official rate of 3,237.83 |
| Annual inflation (October) | 6.30% | — | Up from 6.29%; forecast was 6.4% |
| COLCAP index | — | — | Close not verified; not quoted |
| Oil fund (USO) | US$142.66 | −3.87% | Oil lower; Colombia’s main export |
The official rate, the TRM, is a weighted average of the previous trading day, which is why Monday’s close differs from it. A dollar at 3,269 pesos means one peso is worth about US$0.0003.
Compared with the end of 2025 the dollar is still down about 13%, so the peso remains much stronger than a year ago.
We do not hold a verified COLCAP level, so we leave it blank rather than guess. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceColombia — Live Market Board
Colombia — Live Market Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
COLCAP
2,576.36
+3.67%
—
—
—
—
—
USD/COP
3,269
+0.88%
-12.53%
3,240
3,269
3,267
—
BRENT
92.53
-5.89%
+44.44%
98.32
92.53
92.00
578
WTI
86.68
-4.57%
+44.15%
90.83
86.74
86.11
3,127
ECOPETROL
15.61
+0.39%
+58.00%
15.55
15.73
15.17
2,199,339
BANCOLOMBIA
94.91
+2.75%
+49.30%
92.37
94.91
91.07
352,514
GRUPO AVAL
4.34
+0.70%
-0.23%
4.31
4.38
4.11
154,280
TECNOGLASS
47.09
+7.17%
+0.43%
43.94
47.14
44.22
442,413
CREDICORP
355.90
+2.29%
+37.41%
347.93
358.65
348.28
323,331
BUENAVENTURA
28.90
+3.25%
+23.82%
27.99
29.38
28.48
704,578
SOUTHERN COPPER
176.02
+5.23%
+32.36%
167.27
178.46
174.04
866,245
03 Why it moved — oil down, peso under pressure
The first and heaviest cause was oil. The oil fund USO fell 3.87%, and a lower oil price means fewer dollars flowing into Colombia. Confidence: medium to high.
The second was the global mood, which cut the other way. The S&P 500 rose 2.35% to 7,550, the VIX fell 22.31% to 19.92, and the dollar index fell 0.61% to 101.68, all of which normally help emerging-market currencies. Confidence: high that these happened, medium on how much they offset the oil drag.
Official data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA, eia.gov) gave no oil shock: commercial crude stocks were 409.8 million barrels, 0.9 million lower than the week before. Confidence: medium.
The US 10-year Treasury yield, the return on US government borrowing, edged up 3 basis points to 4.89%. A rising yield is usually a headwind for emerging-market currencies.
04 The day’s movers
| Driver | Level / Move | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil fund (USO) | 142.66 | −3.87% | Oil is down 9.06% over five sessions; the macro anchor |
| S&P 500 | 7,550 | +2.35% | Wall Street rally set the global tone |
| VIX fear gauge | 19.92 | −22.31% | Investor anxiety dropped sharply |
| Dollar index | 101.68 | −0.61% | Weaker dollar normally helps emerging-market currencies |
| US 10-year yield | 4.89% | +3 basis points | A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point |
Per-share data for Colombian companies is not verified for this session, so this table tracks the forces that moved the whole market instead.
The mix is unusual. Fear and the dollar index fell while oil dropped, and the peso still lost ground, which points to an oil-led move rather than a clean global trend.
Colombia’s October inflation, published by the statistics office DANE, came in at 6.30% year on year, a touch above September’s 6.29% and below the 6.4% forecast in the RT economic calendar. Prices rose 0.20% on the month, against a forecast of 0.3% and 0.37% in September.
05 The regional scoreboard
| Index | Country | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | Brazil | +2.22% |
| IPC | Mexico | +1.00% |
| IPSA | Chile | +0.50% |
Brazil, Mexico and Chile all closed higher. Argentina’s stock market was shut for a national holiday, the visit of Pope Leo XIV. The Colombian COLCAP is not listed because we could not verify its close.
Currencies were mixed. The Mexican peso gained, with USD/MXN down 0.40%, and the Chilean peso gained, with USD/CLP down 0.96%. Brazil’s real was nearly flat, with USD/BRL up 0.10%, while Colombia’s peso weakened.
For a reader in São Paulo, Mexico City or Santiago, the lesson is that Colombia’s currency followed its own oil-linked story while its neighbours followed Wall Street.
06 The technical picture
Charts are maps of where buyers and sellers have previously changed their minds. For the dollar against the peso, Monday’s close of 3,269.21 pesos sits above the official rate of 3,237.83.
The round number of 3,300 pesos is the next ceiling traders will watch, and 3,200 is the nearest round-number floor.
The move would end if the dollar closed back under 3,240 pesos, which would say Monday’s weakness was a one-day wobble. A close above 3,300 pesos would confirm that the peso slide is gaining pace.
We do not quote levels for the COLCAP because its close is not verified.
07 What to watch
- The central bank: inflation of 6.30% is more than double the bank’s 3% target, so interest-rate decisions will stay in focus for the peso.
- US inflation data: US consumer prices for October are due on Tuesday 10 November at 13:30 UTC, with a forecast of 3.9% year on year against 3.7% before; a hot number could revive the strong dollar.
- Oil: Oil is the main driver for the peso; further falls would test the 3,300 level.
- The VIX: A return of the fear gauge above 19.92 would likely add pressure on emerging-market currencies.
Background: Colombia Stocks Flat as Peso Slips.
Background: Colombia Stocks Slip 0.9% as Peso Gains.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, where users bet real money, lists a market on the Bank of the Republic of Colombia’s December decision, with US$39,656 traded as of 8:21 p.m. ET, 9 November 2026. It prices no change at 65.0%, a 0.25-point rise at 32.4%, a 0.5-point or larger cut at 3.5%, a 0.5-point or larger rise at 2.6% and a 0.25-point cut at 2.5%.
These prices are bets, not polls. With inflation at 6.30%, traders see a rise as far likelier than a cut.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the Colombian peso do on 9 November?
The peso weakened. The dollar closed at 3,269.21 pesos (about US$1 per 3,269 pesos), 31.38 pesos above the official TRM of 3,237.83.
Why did the peso fall when Wall Street rallied?
Oil prices fell, and Colombia relies on crude for much of its export income. That outweighed a calmer global mood, with the S&P 500 up 2.35% and the VIX down 22.31%.
What happened to the COLCAP index?
We could not verify the COLCAP close for Monday 9 November, so we do not quote it. The level will appear in a later report once the exchange figure is confirmed.
What does it mean for travellers?
A weaker peso means a US dollar buys more pesos, so visitors paying in dollars get slightly more for their money than a week ago.
Market data: The Rio Times; exchange figures from BVC
In depth
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
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