Expectations Drive Peso and COLCAP amid Data-Driven Caution

A Reuters poll showing 12 of 24 economists forecasting a pause at 12.25% guided yesterday’s session, not a fresh Banco de la República decision. Traders treated this tie as confirmation of continued monetary restraint.

The peso oscillated between COP 3 871 and COP 3 890, closing at COP 3 878.2 per dollar. U.S. durable-goods orders surprised with a 1.4% rise in August, lifting Treasury yields and the dollar index to 100.38 and capping peso gains.

Global equities advanced late in Asia and Europe, and Colombian equity ETFs attracted US $12 million of net inflows. That flow propelled the MSCI COLCAP up 0.5% to 1 880.7, erasing most of a 0.6% loss from the prior day.

Banks and industrials led, while energy and finance sectors bore the brunt of a Brent drop to US $82.50 per barrel, which trimmed oil-export revenue forecasts.

Technically, USD/COP sits below its 200-day moving average near COP 3 900. A decisive break below COP 3 875 could test COP 3 840, whereas surpassing COP 3 890 would threaten COP 3 925.

COLCAP trades above its 50-day EMA around 1 861 and within an uptrend channel since August. A push past 1 900 becomes likely if global risk appetite endures; failure there would see support at 1 850.

Market makers cite “data-driven caution” as core inflation remains stubborn even as credit growth slows. They anticipate a gradual withdrawal of liquidity operations by November should peso volatility calm.

Meanwhile, a rise in U.S. real yields may flatten Colombia’s sovereign curve, pressuring forward-rate contracts. Behind the figures lies a market attuned more to forecasts than to fresh policy moves.

The Reuters poll crystallized trader expectations, but U.S. data and oil-price swings ultimately dictated price action.

Investors balanced domestic caution with external currents: they accepted a narrow peso range yet embraced COLCAP shares on solid ETF flows.

As today unfolds, market direction will hinge on any shifts in U.S. Treasury yields and new data on Colombian inflation and credit conditions.