Dollar Retreats Against Chilean Peso as Sellers Dominate Key Resistance

The US dollar lost ground against the Chilean peso on June 19, 2025, closing near 940 after failing to hold above 950 earlier in the week.

Official exchange data confirm a clear downward move, with the dollar falling from intraday highs above 949 to a close at 940.49. This drop broke the recent pattern of range-bound trading and signaled a shift in market dynamics.

The peso’s rally followed several failed attempts by the dollar to break through the 950 resistance. Technical analysis of the four-hour chart shows a sharp rejection at the 948–950 zone, where the 200-period moving average and the upper Bollinger Band converged.

Sellers stepped in aggressively, pushing the pair lower as the MACD histogram turned down and the RSI retreated from overbought territory. The daily chart reinforces this bearish momentum, with the price closing below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages.

The MACD on the daily timeframe remains negative, and the RSI slipped to 50, reflecting a loss of bullish conviction. Volume analysis on both timeframes shows a spike in activity during the selloff, confirming that the move was driven by real flows rather than thin market conditions.

No significant ETF inflows or outflows were reported, suggesting that spot and futures traders led the action. Macroeconomic fundamentals provided a backdrop for the peso’s strength.

Chile’s central bank maintained its benchmark rate at 5%, citing steady inflation and a stable economic outlook. Official data show inflation running at 4.5% in April, with core inflation below 4%.

Copper prices, a key driver for the peso, remained stable, supporting local sentiment. Meanwhile, US data pointed to slowing growth and persistent expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, weakening the dollar’s global appeal.

Market participants focused on the technical rejection at 950, interpreting it as a signal that the dollar’s uptrend had exhausted itself for now. Traders noted that the next support lies near 938, with further downside possible if macro conditions remain favorable for the peso.

The lack of a sustained breakout above resistance and the confirmation from multiple technical indicators convinced many that the path of least resistance was lower.

The story behind the figures is clear: the dollar’s failure at a major resistance level, combined with supportive local fundamentals and technical signals, triggered a decisive move in favor of the peso.

The market now watches for confirmation of this trend in the coming sessions, with attention on both US data and Chilean economic releases. The peso’s performance underscores how quickly sentiment can shift when technical and fundamental forces align.