Dollar Holds Gains as Chilean Peso Struggles to Rebound

The Chilean peso faced renewed pressure against the dollar over the past 24 hours, as drawn from official market charts and data.

At the opening of July 18, 2025, the USD/CLP traded near 961, slightly below yesterday’s close but still close to recent highs. The primary driver has been persistent dollar strength, as shown by the consistently elevated Dollar Index (DXY), which remains above 98.50.

This sustained global demand for dollars comes despite the lack of new US policy signals. Chile’s macroeconomic outlook keeps improving, with steady growth in mining exports and stable consumer demand.

Official figures show inflation continues to ease, and the central bank has slowed the pace of interest rate cuts. This conservative shift has supported the peso but has not fully offset global pressures.

Copper price fluctuations still exert a strong influence, as Chile relies on commodity exports to fuel external balance and currency stability. Market participants observed brisk activity late yesterday as the dollar tested and briefly surpassed 970 pesos, an important resistance.

Volumes increased with international funds locking in recent gains. However, the peso recovered modestly overnight as global risk sentiment improved and capital briefly flowed back into emerging markets.

Some dealers pointed to speculation about new hedging activity by exporters, but no official interventions occurred. Technical analysis of the daily chart reveals that the USD/CLP broke above key resistance in the 955-960 range and has since consolidated just below 970.

Bollinger Bands widened, signaling increased volatility, while the 50-day and longer moving averages slope upward, confirming the underlying uptrend.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index now reads around 62, reflecting moderately strong momentum without entering overbought territory. The MACD indicator supports this view, with both the fast and slow lines trending higher and the histogram in positive territory.

The four-hour chart shows short-term resistance at 974, which the dollar failed to break last session. Momentum indicators—MACD and RSI—have started to roll over on this interval, suggesting a pause or minor correction could follow unless external conditions shift.

ETF flows into Chilean assets remain stable, with no major change reported in peso-linked funds. Overall, trading volumes grew as the market tested resistance but retreated toward the close. Reliable sources did not report official intervention or abnormal liquidity measures.

Fundamental drivers over the last 24 hours included the steady flow of commodity export revenue, tighter risk aversion globally, and anticipation of regional political developments.

The ongoing trend shows the peso remains sensitive to trends in the global dollar market and commodity prices. Technically, the dollar’s hold above key averages hints at ongoing upside risk, but profit-taking has surfaced near the week’s highs.

The market continues to watch for fresh macro or policy signals that could shift the peso’s fate in coming sessions.

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