Global Data Point to End of Pandemic in One Month, Except for Countries Like Brazil

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The websites of leading institutions such as Johns Hopkins University and Worldometers clearly show the global trend: cases of covid-19 related pneumonia and deaths from the virus are decreasing in absolute numbers. Experts believe that unless there is a sharp rise, the pandemic could be over in a month.

Contrary to this trend, on Wednesday, May 20th, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that infections had exceeded five million cases worldwide. This increase is due to a record number of new cases in four countries: Brazil, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the United States.

But there is evidence of a light at the end of the tunnel, as evidenced by data on daily case increases, such as only 1.2 percent in the United States, 0.3 percent in Germany, 0.25 percent in France, Italy and Spain. The Les Echos economic newspaper’s website shows that in Switzerland, cases have increased by only 0.05 percent per day since the start of May. The exceptions in Europe are Belgium (0.6 percent) and the United Kingdom (1.2 percent).

Virus spread decreased by 95 percent

Jean-François Toussaint, professor of physiology at the University of Paris, is optimistic about an end to the pandemic. In an interview with France Info on Friday, May 22nd, he recalled that the spread of the virus in France had dropped 95 percent compared to the peak of the crisis between late March and early April. “The risk is not gone, but it’s much lower,” the doctor said.

Toussaint criticized the French government’s decision to ban access to beaches during the social isolation stage. “These are places where there is less chance of contamination,” he said, pointing out that “in open spaces, air can flow and renew itself more easily.”

The expert also mentioned several indicators that support the argument for the end of the pandemic. “The diseases currently caused by Covid-19 are rarely serious. In Europe and the world, mortality has decreased by 50 percent compared to the April 16th peak. The disease has receded and even disappeared in 50 regions of the world”.

“There are examples such as New Zealand, where no cases of infection or deaths have been recorded in three weeks. If France follows this trend, the epidemic will end,” he says.

Second wave may have already occurred

However, he says that the probability of a second wave of infections cannot be ruled out. But the expert is reluctant regarding the effectiveness of a lockdown, claiming that there is no hard data on it. “Countries that did not enforce a lockdown had fewer fatal cases than expected,” he notes.

Toussaint told France Info that the second wave might have already occurred. “These are two different stages to the disease,” he explains. “There is one stage undetected, and it probably happened last fall [in the Northern Hemisphere] all over the world, with the street movement, tourism, and exchanges with China.”

He recalls that as of January, the number of cases exploded, first in Asia and then in Iran. “In February it was in Italy, in March in France, Spain and throughout Europe. These repeated outbreaks suggest that contamination had already been occurring earlier,” he said.

Source: rfi