COLOMBIA · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- The country Colombia, one of South America’s largest economies, is led by conservative President Abelardo de la Espriella.
- What happened Factory managers’ confidence rose to 8.3% in September 2026 from 5.8% in August, a gain of 2.5 points.
- The comparison The reading is still 0.7 points below September 2025, when the same index stood at 9.0%.
- Shops too Retail confidence, a separate index, jumped 5.3 points to 28.6% in the same monthly survey.
- Power Index Colombia ranks 6th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 51.9 points (October 2026 edition).
Colombian factory bosses grew more confident in September 2026, according to the monthly business survey of Fedesarrollo, a leading Bogotá economic think tank. Its Industrial Confidence Index rose to 8.3% from 5.8% in August, and the survey was released on Wednesday 28 October 2026.
For US readers, the number is an early read on whether Colombia’s manufacturers, which sell food and chemicals at home and abroad, are starting to recover. It also lands as the government of conservative President Abelardo de la Espriella has announced a spending-cut plan to reduce the deficit, which we explain in our guide to Colombia’s key players.
What Happened
Fedesarrollo asks factory and shop managers every month how business looks, then turns the answers into an index. The industrial index combines three questions: how big current orders are, how large unsold stock is, and how much managers expect to produce in the next three months.
The September reading of 8.3% is 2.5 points higher than August’s 5.8%. Averaged over the last three months, the index stands at 6.7%, which is 2.8 points above where the average stood in August.
What Moved the Index
Two of the three questions improved. Managers reported less unsold stock, with that balance falling by 6 points, and current orders improved by 2.9 points, though they are still negative at minus 19.7% against minus 22.6% in August.
The third question went the other way. Expectations for production in the next quarter eased from 40.1% to 38.5%, which suggests managers are pleased with September but still cautious about the months ahead.
Hiring plans were modest. A balance of 7.7% of manufacturers expect to add jobs next quarter, with 18.7% expecting more staff, 70.4% expecting no change and 10.9% expecting cuts.
Shops Are Even More Upbeat
Fedesarrollo’s retail index, known as the ICCO, rose 5.3 points to 28.6% in September from 23.3% in August. It is 8.2 points above September 2025, when it stood at 20.4%.
Retailers rated the current situation much higher, with that balance rising from 33.2% to 41.8%. Their outlook for the next six months also improved, from 38.2% to 41.4%.
How It Fits the Wider Economy
Other recent Colombian data is mixed rather than clearly better. The central bank held its main rate in a split vote, as we reported in Colombia’s central bank holds rate at 12.25%, and the jobless rate and cement output were covered in Colombia jobless rate falls to 8%, cement up.
Taken together, the surveys describe an economy that is recovering slowly rather than booming. A single month of confidence is a sentiment reading, not a measure of how much factories actually produced.
What It Means for You
If you own Colombian stocks or bonds through US funds, a firmer industrial mood supports the story of a slow recovery. It does not change the larger drivers, which are the government’s budget plan, interest rates and the peso.
If you export to Colombia or run a business there, rising orders and falling stocks suggest buyers are starting to restock. Hiring plans stay cautious, so do not expect a rush in wages or staffing yet.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether September is the start of a trend, because a single month of survey answers can reverse. The survey asks managers for opinions and does not count output, so official industrial production figures for September remain the check.
We could not confirm the exact figure analysts expected before the release, and we do not show one here. No prediction market on Colombian business confidence trades with meaningful volume that we could find.
More: Colombia news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What Is Colombia’s Industrial Confidence Index?
It is a monthly index from Fedesarrollo, a Bogotá think tank, built from manufacturers’ answers on orders, unsold stock and expected production. It stood at 8.3% in September 2026.
Did Colombian Factory Confidence Rise in September 2026?
Yes. The index rose 2.5 points from 5.8% in August to 8.3%, though it is still 0.7 points below September 2025.
How Did Colombian Retailers Feel in September?
Better than factories. The retail confidence index jumped 5.3 points to 28.6%, which is 8.2 points above a year earlier.
Does Business Confidence Predict Growth?
Not exactly. It shows how managers feel, but it does not measure actual output or sales.
Sources: Fedesarrollo, Encuesta de Opinión Empresarial (business opinion survey), September 2026, released 28 October 2026; Bank of the Republic of Colombia, policy rate decision, October 2026.
In depth
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