COLOMBIA · ENERGY
Key Facts
- —The country Hydropower supplied 57% of Colombia’s electricity on Monday, 5 October.
- —What happened IDEAM, the state weather agency, declared El Niño on Thursday, 8 October.
- —The US angle US forecasters put odds of a strong event through March above 83%.
- —The numbers Wholesale power averaged US$0.21 per kWh in September, up 126%.
- —What it means for you El Niño adds inflation risk, with prices up 6.29% in September.
- —Still open Whether Colombia avoids power rationing through the dry months.
Colombia made El Niño official as its reservoirs drain and costlier thermal plants supply a third of its electricity.
El Niño in Colombia is now official: the state weather agency IDEAM declared the climate event on Thursday, 8 October. The same day, US government forecasters said it could exceed every El Niño on record since 1950.
The warming Pacific threatens a grid that leans on hydropower dams and already pays more than twice last year’s wholesale power price. For foreign investors, companies and visitors, that means higher costs, added inflation risk and pressure to save energy.
What IDEAM Declared
IDEAM is the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies, Colombia’s official weather agency. In a communiqué, it said the technical conditions for a formal declaration had been met.
Sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific reached a record anomaly of +3.49°C, the agency said, according to El Espectador. The Oceanic Niño Index, a standard gauge of Pacific warming, rose from 0.5 to 2.2 in five months.
IDEAM put the chance that El Niño stays strong to very strong until at least March 2027 at 83%. It expects the event to last until the end of the first half of next year.
October and November are Colombia’s second rainy season, but IDEAM expects less rain than normal in the Andean, Pacific and Caribbean regions. Its forecast of Tuesday, 6 October, named December the most critical month.
Preparing only for drought while ignoring floods and landslides “would be a mistake,” said IDEAM director Andrés Herkrath, El Espectador reported.
What US Forecasters Said
The US Climate Prediction Center, part of NOAA, the federal weather and oceans agency, issued its monthly update on Thursday. It kept an El Niño Advisory and put the chance of a strong-to-very strong event through January–March 2027 above 83%.
NOAA measured the key Niño-3.4 area of the Pacific at 2.1°C above normal. It gave an 83% chance that October–December will be stronger than any El Niño since 1950, by its relative index.
How Colombia’s Hydropower Grid Is Feeling the Strain
Hydropower dams usually supply most of Colombia’s electricity, so rainfall drives the market. Data from XM, the grid and wholesale market operator, show the strain.
Reservoirs held 74.9% of their usable volume on Wednesday, 7 October, down from 81.0% a year earlier. River inflows that day were 51% of the historical average.
Thermal plants, which burn natural gas, coal or liquid fuels, are filling the gap. They produced 33.7% of power on Monday, 5 October, against 10.1% on Monday, 6 October 2025.
Hydropower’s share fell to 56.6% from 83.4% over the same comparison, XM figures show.
The wholesale spot price of power averaged about COP 688 per kWh (about US$0.21) in September. That was 126% above the COP 304 per kWh (about US$0.09) of September 2025.
On 1 and 2 October, the spot price topped the official scarcity price of COP 763 per kWh (about US$0.24). It reached COP 834 per kWh (about US$0.26) on 2 October.
Conversions use the official TRM exchange rate of 3,218.75 pesos per US dollar for Friday, 9 October.
The Government’s Plan to Avoid Blackouts
Mines and Energy Minister María Nohemi Arboleda runs a crisis plan called Plan Energía YA. Decree 1491 of Tuesday, 6 October, lets thermal plants buy liquid fuel from more than one supplier during contingencies.
The ministry says the plan includes COP 1.9 trillion (about US$590 million) to protect the power service.
On Thursday, Arboleda set out four measures, Semana magazine reported. They are energy saving, fuel and gas supply, stronger thermal dispatch and full use of existing plants.
Users who cut consumption by more than 10% against their target would receive an incentive. “The goal is not to explain the blackout, it is to avoid it,” she said.
A presidential directive of 22 September gives public bodies until 30 November to have contingency plans ready. Conservative President Abelardo De La Espriella took office in August.
What It Means for You
For investors in Colombian bonds and the peso, El Niño adds to inflation risk. Consumer prices rose 6.29% in the year to September, according to the statistics agency DANE.
Valora Analitik, a Colombian financial news outlet, says El Niño threatens harvests and raises power generation costs. It cites a Deloitte estimate that El Niño could add up to 3.26 percentage points to inflation.
The central bank, Banco de la República, raised its rate to 12.25% on 30 September. It next decides on Friday, 30 October.
For US companies operating in Colombia, power bills are the most direct exposure. Firms that cut use could benefit from the planned savings incentive.
Travelers should follow local alerts. Herkrath said wildfire alerts rose from 7 to 90 in 15 days, Portafolio reported, while heavy rain and flash floods remain possible.
What Is Not Known
How much rain October and November bring will decide whether reservoirs hold up into the dry months. No nationwide power rationing has been ordered, and the government says it aims to avoid it.
The size of El Niño’s effect on inflation and on household power tariffs is not known. Neither agency can yet say whether the event will set a record.
What Comes Next
The central bank meets on 30 October, and NOAA updates its outlook on 12 November. Contingency plans under the presidential directive are due by 30 November.
IDEAM expects El Niño to last until mid-2027. The declaration does not mean blackouts are certain.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Colombia declare on 8 October?
IDEAM, the state weather agency, officially declared El Niño after Pacific warming met its technical criteria. It sees an 83% chance the event stays strong to very strong until at least March 2027.
Why does El Niño in Colombia affect power prices?
Hydropower dams usually supply most of Colombia’s electricity, and El Niño tends to bring less rain. Wholesale prices averaged 126% more in September than a year earlier, XM data show.
Will Colombia ration electricity?
No nationwide rationing has been ordered, and the government says its goal is to avoid it. IDEAM sees December as the most critical month for rainfall.
Why should US investors care?
El Niño adds to inflation risk in a country where prices rose 6.29% in the year to September. The central bank, whose rate is 12.25%, next decides on 30 October.
What did US forecasters say?
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said on 8 October that a strong-to-very strong El Niño is likely through January–March 2027. It put the odds above 83%.
Sources: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (8 October 2026); IDEAM, climate forecast (6 October 2026); IDEAM, El Niño page; XM, grid and market data via its public API (reservoirs, inflows, spot and scarcity prices, generation); Ministry of Mines and Energy, Decree 1491 and Plan Energía YA; Banco de la República; Superintendencia Financiera, official TRM exchange rate; El Espectador; La República; Portafolio; Semana; Valora Analitik (all accessed 9 October 2026).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief