Chilean Peso Strengthens as Technicals and Fundamentals Align

The Chilean peso strengthened against the US dollar over the past 24 hours, with official sources showing the USD/CLP closing at 930.10 on June 12, 2025. This marks a 0.76% drop from the previous session, underscoring a modest appreciation for the peso.

The move follows a period of sideways trading, as the market digested both local and global developments. Central bank data and official trade figures reveal that Chile’s economy continues to benefit from a solid trade surplus.

In April 2025, the surplus reached $1.92 billion, driven by a 5.7% year-on-year rise in exports. Mining, especially gold and copper, led the gains, with gold exports surging over 80%.

Imports also rose, particularly capital goods, reflecting ongoing investment in productive sectors. These numbers support the peso’s resilience, even as agricultural exports lagged.

Inflation remains a concern, with the latest official reading at 4.5% for April and the 2025 average at 4.76%. The Central Bank of Chile recently raised its inflation forecast for the year, which has tempered expectations for aggressive monetary easing.

The bank’s steady policy rate at 5% signals a cautious approach, balancing inflation risks against the need to support growth. Technical analysis of the USD/CLP daily and 4-hour charts, using widely recognized indicators, confirms the peso’s recent strength.

Both charts show the pair trading below key moving averages, with the 50-day and 200-day lines acting as resistance. The daily chart’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 41.9, while the 4-hour RSI is lower at 37.9, both below the neutral 50 level.

This suggests bearish momentum and hints at oversold conditions, though not yet extreme. The MACD on both timeframes remains negative, with the signal line above the MACD line, reinforcing the bearish tone.

Chilean Peso Shows Stability Amid Reduced Volatility

Bollinger Bands have narrowed, indicating reduced volatility and a potential buildup for a larger move. Price action has respected the 927–930 support zone, while resistance remains firm around 935–940.

No significant volume spikes or ETF flows have been reported, pointing to a market driven by fundamentals rather than speculative surges. Market participants attribute the peso’s gains to a combination of strong export performance, stable monetary policy, and a lack of major external shocks.

The US dollar’s global stability and limited liquidity due to a US holiday also played a role in the day’s subdued trading. Official sources do not report any intervention or extraordinary measures by the Chilean authorities.

The story behind the numbers is one of steady fundamentals supporting the peso, with technical indicators confirming the current trend. The market awaits fresh catalysts, such as new inflation data or central bank signals, to determine the next direction.

For now, the peso’s strength reflects Chile’s export-driven recovery and prudent policy management, while technicals suggest the potential for further gains if support holds.

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