Chile’s Escondida Copper Output Falls 27.6% in August
CHILE · MINING
Key Facts
- —The country Chile is the world’s largest copper miner, with an estimated 5.3 million tonnes in 2025, according to the US Geological Survey.
- —What happened Escondida copper output at BHP’s mine in the Atacama Desert fell 27.6% in August to 76,100 tonnes, Cochilco data show.
- —The national figure Chile mined 366,300 tonnes of copper in August, down 12.7%, and 3.25 million tonnes from January to August, down 7.7%.
- —Why it matters in the US Chile supplied 68% of US refined copper imports in 2021–24, and copper closed at US$6.66 a pound on Friday 9 October.
- —Prediction markets Kalshi bets give copper a 58% chance of closing above US$6.63 a pound on 30 October (10 October, 1:03 a.m. ET).
- —Still open Why Escondida fell so sharply, how long the strike at the Centinela mine lasts, and whether Washington taxes refined copper from 2027.
Escondida copper output fell 27.6% in August from a year earlier, Chile’s state copper commission, Cochilco, reported in its latest monthly bulletin. The BHP-run mine in the Atacama Desert produced 76,100 tonnes, its weakest month this year.
The drop matters far beyond Chile, the world’s largest copper miner and the main foreign supplier of refined copper to the United States. National mine output fell 12.7% to 366,300 tonnes, and copper closed the week at US$6.66 a pound, Cochilco said.
How Far Escondida Fell in August
BHP, the Australian mining group whose shares also trade in New York, owns 57.5% of Escondida and runs it. Rio Tinto holds 30% and Japan’s JECO Corp holds 12.5%.
BHP calls Escondida the world’s largest producer of copper concentrates and cathodes. The mine lies about 170 kilometres southeast of the port city of Antofagasta.
Escondida copper output reached 76,100 tonnes in August, down from 105,100 tonnes a year earlier. It had already slipped to 89,400 tonnes in July, after running above 100,000 tonnes a month from January to June.
In August alone, Escondida’s loss of 29,000 tonnes made up more than half of Chile’s national decline. From January to August, Escondida copper production reached 797,500 tonnes, down 11.4%.
That eight-month shortfall of 102,500 tonnes explains about 38% of the country’s lost output. Spence, BHP’s second big Chilean copper mine, fell 25.5% to 131,200 tonnes over the same months.
Escondida also faces a pay dispute. On Monday 5 October BHP asked Chile’s labour inspectorate to mediate in talks with the mine’s supervisors’ and staff union, the daily Emol reported.
Chile’s National Copper Output Drops 12.7%
Chile mined 366,300 tonnes of copper in August, 12.7% less than the 419,800 tonnes of August 2025. It was the lowest monthly total since at least January 2023, Cochilco’s tables show.
From January to August, output reached 3,248,000 tonnes, down 7.7%, or 270,300 tonnes, from a year earlier. Cochilco marks all 2026 figures as provisional.
The loss came from copper concentrates, the upgraded ore powder that miners ship to smelters, which fell 17.2% in August. Cathodes made at the mines by leaching and electrolysis, which turn ore into pure copper plates, rose 4.8%.
Outside the state miner Codelco, only three named operations grew over the eight months: Quebrada Blanca rose 14.1%, Anglo American Sur 9.3% and Zaldívar 0.6%. Antofagasta Minerals’ Centinela fell 17.6% to 128,400 tonnes.
The new breakdown adds detail to the August mining slump already seen in Chile’s official data. It shows how much of the fall comes from a handful of large mines.
Codelco and the El Teniente Mine
Codelco, Chile’s state-owned copper company, produced 761,400 tonnes from its own divisions from January to August, down 8.1%. Counting its stakes in other mines, its total was 833,400 tonnes, down 7.5%.
The biggest drag was El Teniente, the underground mine where an accident killed six workers on 31 July 2025, according to Codelco. Its output fell 20.3% to 170,600 tonnes over the eight months.
In August, El Teniente produced 21,700 tonnes, nearly double the 11,500 tonnes of August 2025, the month after the accident. That rebound lifted Codelco’s own output 9.2% in August.
Even so, El Teniente mined only 18,100 to 23,800 tonnes a month in 2026. In the first seven months of 2025, before the accident, it mined 25,700 to 31,100 tonnes a month.
What It Means for You
Chile supplied 68% of US refined copper imports in 2021–24, the US Geological Survey says. The agency estimates the United States relied on imports for 57% of its copper use in 2025.
Copper goes into wiring, power grids, motors, plumbing and electronics, so tighter supply can raise costs for American builders and manufacturers. Cochilco said copper closed at US$6.66 a pound on Friday 9 October, up 2.3% on the week.
The 2026 average so far is US$6.11 a pound, 40.4% above the same point in 2025, according to Cochilco. It linked the week’s gain to falling London stocks, Chinese buyers returning after a holiday and the strike at Centinela.
Washington already taxes many copper goods. Under Proclamation 10962, a 50% tariff has applied since 1 August 2025 to semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive goods.
Since 6 April 2026, Proclamation 11021 has applied the duty to the goods’ full value. Most listed copper products pay 50%, and some pay 25%.
Refined copper, including the cathodes Chile sells, was left for a later decision. The 2025 proclamation set out a possible duty of 15% from 1 January 2027 and 30% from 1 January 2028.
For investors, BHP’s shares also trade in New York, so weaker Escondida copper volumes reach US portfolios too. Rio Tinto, the mine’s second-largest owner, is also listed in New York.
What Prediction Markets Say
Kalshi, a US exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), runs bets on where copper will close on 30 October. At 1:03 a.m. ET on 10 October, they gave copper a 58% chance of closing above US$6.63 a pound.
The bet on a close above US$6.69 a pound stood at about 50%. About 13,400 contracts have traded on the 30 October series, each paying US$1 if it proves right.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
Cochilco’s tables do not say why Escondida copper output fell so sharply in August. BHP reports production every three months, and its account of July to September is still to come.
Nobody knows yet how long the Centinela strike will last, or how BHP’s talks with Escondida’s supervisors will end. It is also unclear whether Washington will impose the refined copper duty that the 2025 proclamation set out for 2027.
The August figures are provisional and may change in later bulletins. September data will show whether the slide in Escondida copper output continued.
More: Chile news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Cochilco?
Cochilco, the Chilean Copper Commission, is a state agency that advises the government on mining and publishes official copper statistics. Its monthly bulletin lists output by company, based on figures the companies report.
Who owns the Escondida mine?
BHP owns 57.5% and runs the mine, Rio Tinto holds 30% and Japan’s JECO Corp 12.5%, according to BHP. Escondida lies in the Atacama Desert, about 170 kilometres southeast of Antofagasta.
How much did Escondida copper output fall?
Escondida copper output was 76,100 tonnes in August, 27.6% less than a year earlier, according to Cochilco. From January to August it mined 797,500 tonnes, down 11.4%.
Does the US tariff cover Chilean copper?
A 50% US tariff has applied since 1 August 2025 to semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive goods. A duty on refined copper of 15% from 2027 and 30% from 2028 was left for a later presidential decision.
Sources: Cochilco, Monthly Bulletin September 2026, Table 17: Chilean Copper Mine Production by Company, September 2026 edition; Cochilco, Monthly Bulletin September 2026, Table 16: Chilean Copper Production by Product Type, September 2026 edition; Cochilco, International Copper Market Report, week of 5 to 9 October 2026, 9 October 2026; Emol, report on BHP’s mediation request at Escondida (in Spanish), 5 October 2026; Federal Register, Proclamation 10962: Adjusting Imports of Copper Into the United States, 5 August 2025; Federal Register, Proclamation 11021: Strengthening Actions Taken To Adjust Imports of Aluminum, Steel, and Copper, 9 April 2026; US Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Copper, 2026; BHP, Escondida, accessed 10 October 2026; BHP, Pampa Norte (Spence), accessed 10 October 2026; Codelco, A un año del accidente en El Teniente, 31 July 2026.
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