Key Facts
- Campaign: The official race for president of Cabo Verde, a West African island nation, opened on Thursday, 29 October.
- Vote: Cabo Verde votes on Sunday, 15 November; a runoff follows on Sunday, 29 November if nobody wins a majority.
- Field: The Constitutional Court admitted six candidates, led by incumbent President José Maria Neves.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket priced Neves at 85% and Rosa at 4% on Friday, 30 October, 3:20 p.m. ET.
This story is part of our coverage of the Cape Verde presidential election 2026. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide.
Cabo Verde’s presidential campaign began on Thursday, 29 October, with the sitting president the clear favourite in the betting markets. Our Cabo Verde election coverage tracks every step to the vote.
Voters choose a head of state on Sunday, 15 November. If no candidate wins more than half of the valid votes, the top two meet in a runoff on Sunday, 29 November.
Who Is on the Ballot
The Constitutional Court, the country’s top court, has admitted six candidates. They are José Maria Neves, Joana Rosa, Casimiro de Pina, Gilson Alves, Antero Tavares and Loisito Tavares de Sousa.
Neves, the incumbent, is backed by the governing African Party for the Independence of Cabo Verde (PAICV) and is seeking a second term. Rosa, a former justice minister, is backed by the opposition Movement for Democracy (MpD).
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, traders priced Neves at 85% and Rosa at 4% on Friday, 30 October, with about US$34,500 had been traded on the race. On Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the price for a first-round winner stood at 67% on about 3,390 contracts.
These prices are bets, not vote-intention polls. The Kalshi price suggests traders see a real chance of a runoff, even with Neves far ahead.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Live Market IntelligenceCrypto — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Crypto — Live Market Board
+0.67%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 80,543 | +0.67% | -29.41% | 80,007 | 80,550 | 79,380 | 21,816,416,256 |
| ETH | 2,348 | +1.18% | -43.00% | 2,320 | 2,349 | 2,295 | 8,316,267,520 |
| SOL | 100.98 | +0.22% | -49.19% | 100.75 | 101.04 | 99.17 | 2,110,777,984 |
| XRP | 1.32 | +1.04% | -49.89% | 1.31 | 1.32 | 1.29 | 1,574,615,552 |
| BNB | 750.98 | +1.29% | -34.10% | 741.42 | 751.10 | 733.56 | 1,470,316,160 |
| ADA | 0.21 | -0.30% | -69.21% | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 190,120,672 |
| DOGE | 0.08 | +0.78% | -60.98% | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 441,746,112 |
| AVAX | 8.84 | -1.36% | -56.54% | 8.96 | 8.96 | 8.67 | 289,961,824 |
| LINK | 11.47 | +0.80% | -37.04% | 11.38 | 11.47 | 11.23 | 248,509,440 |
| DOT | 0.99 | -2.05% | -68.52% | 1.01 | 1.01 | 0.98 | 109,918,912 |
| LTC | 56.59 | -0.13% | -43.06% | 56.66 | 56.87 | 55.70 | 169,852,160 |
| BCH | 290.36 | +3.57% | -47.81% | 280.36 | 292.52 | 277.47 | 195,939,216 |
| TRX | 0.33 | -0.51% | +9.69% | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 371,519,040 |
| XLM | 0.17 | +0.21% | -47.60% | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 107,134,680 |
| HBAR | 0.08 | -1.56% | -58.82% | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 55,674,584 |
| NEAR | 4.62 | +2.60% | +97.50% | 4.50 | 4.64 | 4.39 | 630,712,192 |
| ATOM | 1.61 | -1.48% | -49.28% | 1.64 | 1.64 | 1.60 | 30,012,314 |
| AAVE | 132.37 | -2.36% | -43.78% | 135.57 | 135.87 | 129.56 | 246,790,448 |
Neves’s Record in 2021
Neves won the previous presidential election, held on Sunday, 17 October 2021, in the first round. The national elections commission proclaimed him the winner with about 51.7% of valid votes.
That narrow majority is why the runoff threshold is the number to watch this time.
What It Means for US Readers
For US investors and analysts who track political risk in small frontier economies, Cabo Verde is a stable test of incumbent strength. A first-round win for Neves would signal continuity, while a runoff would open a two-week contest.
What Is Not Known
No opinion poll from a named polling institute has been published that we could find, so the market prices are the only public gauge. We could not confirm the exact polling hours from the official electoral commission.
No withdrawal, court challenge or change to the six-name field has been reported since the campaign opened.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is Cabo Verde’s presidential election?
Voting is on Sunday, 15 November 2026. A runoff, if needed, is on Sunday, 29 November.
Who is favoured to win?
Incumbent José Maria Neves, priced at 85% on Polymarket on 30 October. These are market prices, not polls.
Sources: Constitutional Court of Cabo Verde ruling admitting six candidacies; national elections commission (CNE) results of 2021; Polymarket and Kalshi market data read on 30 October. Published Friday, 30 October, 3:30 p.m. ET.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief