Brazil’s Soybean Harvest Set for Record Growth Amid Planting Delays

Brazil’s soybean production for the 2024/25 season is poised for significant growth. The National Supply Company (Conab) has released its first forecast, projecting a harvest of 166 million tons.

This estimate represents a substantial 12.7% increase from the previous season, which faced challenges due to adverse weather conditions. Farmers plan to expand soybean planting areas by 2.8%, reaching 47.3 million hectares.

This growth will primarily occur in degraded pastures and areas previously used for corn cultivation. The shift reflects soybeans’ current higher profitability compared to corn.

However, the rate of area expansion has slowed. This season’s growth percentage is the third lowest recorded since the 2009/2010 cycle. Farmers are adapting their strategies to maximize returns while balancing land use.

Planting Delays and Regional Progress

Soybean planting in Brazil has experienced delays this year. Farmers, especially in Central-West states like Mato Grosso, are waiting for the rainy season to begin. Currently, the state of Paraná leads in planting progress.

Some regions have started sowing soybeans, but only in areas with central pivot irrigation. These include São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Goiás, and Bahia. Farmers in these states are taking a cautious approach to the planting season.

Conab anticipates a 9.6% increase in soybean productivity, reaching 3,508 kg per hectare. This boost in yield contributes significantly to the overall production increase.

Brazil expects its total corn production to reach 119.73 million tons. This figure represents a 3.5% growth compared to the previous cycle, which also faced weather-related challenges.

Brazil expects total grain and oilseed production for the upcoming season to reach 322.47 million tons. If realized, this volume would surpass the previous year’s harvest by 8.3%, setting a new record in the country’s agricultural history.

Export Projections

Soybean exports are projected to rise to 105.5 million tons in 2025, up from 92.43 million tons in 2024. This increase stems from higher production and growing global demand, especially from China.

Corn exports, however, are expected to decrease slightly. The forecast for 2024/25 stands at 34 million tons, down from 36 million tons in the previous season.

Despite this, domestic demand for corn remains strong, driven by robust exports of animal protein and ethanol production.