Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for July 10, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets are bracing for a highly volatile session today, driven by a critical domestic inflation report and a dense global economic calendar.
Escalating trade tensions following U.S. President Donald Trump’s imposition of 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports, effective August 1, 2025, are also adding pressure.
The tariffs, announced as a response to Brazil’s perceived undue persecution of Trump’s ally, former President Jair Bolsonaro, have heightened market uncertainty, pressuring the Brazilian real and equities.
The Central Bank of Brazil’s (BCB) Selic rate, steady at 15% since June 18, 2025, anchors market dynamics, targeting inflation at 5.32%—well above the 3% ceiling—while elevating borrowing costs.
Coupled with a 76.2% public debt-to-GDP ratio and a projected R$104 billion fiscal deficit for 2025, this policy supports the real via carry trade but strains sectors like housing and telecommunications.
Today’s economic agenda is pivotal, offering insights into domestic inflationary pressures, global demand, and trade dynamics that could steer market trends.
Key domestic events include Brazil’s CPI (YoY and MoM) and the IPCA Inflation Index SA (MoM) for June, released at 8:00 AM BRT, with consensus expectations of 5.32% annual inflation and 0.20% monthly CPI growth.
These metrics are critical for assessing inflation trends and the BCB’s policy path, especially after Central Bank President Gabriel Galípolo reaffirmed the 3% inflation target.
Higher-than-expected inflation could further weaken the real and equities, while softer data may alleviate tightening concerns.
Globally, Germany’s CPI and HICP data at 2:00 AM EST, U.S. jobless claims at 8:30 AM EST, and Federal Reserve speeches from Waller at 1:15 PM EST and Daly at 2:30 PM EST will shape commodity demand and risk sentiment.
Mexico’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 11:00 AM EST will provide regional policy insights, impacting trade dynamics. These events are crucial as the Ibovespa falls below 138,000 points, the Brazilian real weakens to R$5.5024, and commodities face headwinds from the U.S. tariffs.
Economic Agenda
Brazil and Mexico
Brazil
- 7:00 AM EST / 8:00 AM BRT – CPI (YoY) (Jun): Consensus 5.32%, previous 5.32%. Tracks annual inflation, signaling price pressures and influencing BCB policy expectations.
- 7:00 AM EST / 8:00 AM BRT – CPI (MoM) (Jun): Consensus 0.20%, previous 0.26%. Measures monthly price changes, critical for short-term inflation trends.
- 7:00 AM EST / 8:00 AM BRT – Brazilian IPCA Inflation Index SA (MoM) (Jun): Consensus TBD, previous 0.32%. Provides a seasonally adjusted inflation gauge, impacting monetary policy sentiment.
Mexico
- 11:00 AM EST / 12:00 PM BRT – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Actual TBD. Provides policy insights, impacting regional trade sentiment.
Key Events
Germany
- 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – German CPI (MoM) (Jun): Actual 0.0%, consensus 0.0%, previous 0.1%. Tracks monthly inflation, influencing ECB policy and commodity demand.
- 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – German CPI (YoY) (Jun): Actual 2.0%, consensus 2.0%, previous 2.1%. Signals annual inflation trends, impacting Eurozone demand for Brazilian exports.
- 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – German HICP (YoY) (Jun): Actual 2.0%, consensus 2.0%, previous 2.1%. Reflects harmonized inflation, critical for Brazil’s trade outlook.
- 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – German HICP (MoM) (Jun): Actual 0.1%, consensus 0.1%, previous 0.2%. Measures monthly harmonized inflation, affecting trade sentiment.
United States
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Initial Jobless Claims: Consensus 236K, previous 233K. Tracks labor market health, influencing risk sentiment.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Continuing Jobless Claims: Consensus 1,980K, previous 1,964K. Reflects ongoing unemployment trends, impacting commodity demand.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: Consensus TBD, previous 241.50K. Provides a smoothed labor market view, affecting risk appetite.
- 10:30 AM EST / 11:30 AM BRT – Natural Gas Storage: Consensus 56B, previous 55B. Signals energy inventory trends, impacting Brazil’s energy sector.
- 11:30 AM EST / 12:30 PM BRT – 4-Week Bill Auction: Consensus TBD, previous 4.240%. Reflects short-term debt demand, influencing capital flows.
- 11:30 AM EST / 12:30 PM BRT – 8-Week Bill Auction: Consensus TBD, previous 4.300%. Signals investor confidence, impacting emerging markets.
- 1:00 PM EST / 2:00 PM BRT – 30-Year Bond Auction: Consensus TBD, previous 4.844%. Gauges long-term debt demand, affecting global risk sentiment.
- 1:15 PM EST / 2:15 PM BRT – Fed Waller Speaks: Actual TBD. Shapes U.S. monetary policy expectations, critical for commodity prices.
- 2:30 PM EST / 3:30 PM BRT – FOMC Member Daly Speaks: Actual TBD. Influences Fed policy outlook, impacting Brazil’s export markets.
- 4:30 PM EST / 5:30 PM BRT – Fed’s Balance Sheet: Consensus TBD, previous 6,660B. Tracks monetary policy trends, affecting currency flows.
- 4:30 PM EST / 5:30 PM BRT – Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks: Consensus TBD, previous 3.257T. Signals liquidity trends, influencing risk sentiment.
Second-Tier Events
Norway
- 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – Core CPI YTD (Jun): Actual 3.1%, consensus 3.0%, previous 2.8%. Gauges underlying inflation, influencing commodity demand.
- 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – Core Inflation (MoM) (Jun): Actual 0.5%, consensus 0.4%, previous 0.2%. Tracks monthly core price changes, impacting trade flows.
- 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – CPI (YoY) (Jun): Actual 3.0%, consensus 3.1%, previous 3.0%. Signals annual inflation, affecting export demand.
- 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – CPI (MoM) (Jun): Actual 0.2%, consensus TBD, previous 0.4%. Reflects monthly price trends, influencing risk sentiment.
France
- 2:45 AM EST / 3:45 AM BRT – French Current Account (May): Actual -3.10B, consensus TBD, previous -6.60B. Reflects economic stability, influencing trade dynamics.
Italy
- 3:52 AM EST / 4:52 AM BRT – Italian Industrial Production (YoY) (May): Consensus 0.2%, previous 0.3%. Tracks annual industrial activity, impacting commodity demand.
- 3:52 AM EST / 4:52 AM BRT – Italian Industrial Production (MoM) (May): Consensus -0.2%, previous 1.0%. Measures monthly industrial trends, affecting Brazil’s exports.
- 5:10 AM EST / 6:10 AM BRT – Italian 12-Month BOT Auction: Consensus TBD, previous 1.983%. Signals investor confidence, impacting capital flows to emerging markets.
United Kingdom
- 6:00 AM EST / 7:00 AM BRT – Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Jul): Consensus TBD, previous 52.1. Gauges consumer sentiment, influencing demand for Brazilian goods.
- 11:00 AM EST / 12:00 PM BRT – BoE Breeden Speaks: Actual TBD. Shapes monetary policy expectations, impacting commodity markets.
Germany
- 6:00 AM EST / 7:00 AM BRT – Germany Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Jul): Consensus TBD, previous 47.16. Reflects consumer confidence, affecting export demand.
France
- 6:00 AM EST / 7:00 AM BRT – France Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Jul): Consensus TBD, previous 42.00. Tracks consumer trends, influencing trade sentiment.
Italy
- 6:00 AM EST / 7:00 AM BRT – Italy Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Jul): Consensus TBD, previous 47.01. Signals consumer spending, impacting Brazil’s exports.
Europe
- 6:00 AM EST / 7:00 AM BRT – Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (MoM) (Jul): Consensus TBD, previous 49.99. Gauges regional consumer sentiment, affecting commodity demand.
South Africa
- 6:00 AM EST / 7:00 AM BRT – Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (MoM) (Jul): Consensus TBD, previous 45.96. Reflects consumer confidence, influencing trade flows.
- 7:00 AM EST / 8:00 AM BRT – Manufacturing Production (YoY) (May): Consensus TBD, previous -6.3%. Tracks industrial activity, impacting commodity markets.
- 7:00 AM EST / 8:00 AM BRT – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (May): Consensus TBD, previous 1.9%. Signals monthly industrial trends, affecting Brazil’s exports.
India
- 9:30 AM EST / 10:30 AM BRT – M3 Money Supply: Consensus TBD, previous 9.8%. Reflects monetary trends, influencing export demand.
- 10:00 PM EST / 11:00 PM BRT – Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (MoM) (Jul): Consensus TBD, previous 59.04. Reflects consumer confidence, influencing commodity demand.
New Zealand
- 6:30 PM EST / 7:30 PM BRT – Business NZ PMI (Jun): Consensus TBD, previous 47.5. Tracks manufacturing activity, impacting commodity demand.
South Korea
- 10:00 PM EST / 11:00 PM BRT – Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (MoM) (Jul): Consensus TBD, previous 41.48. Gauges consumer sentiment, affecting trade flows.
Australia
- 10:00 PM EST / 11:00 PM BRT – Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (MoM) (Jul): Consensus TBD, previous 50.43. Signals consumer spending, impacting Brazil’s exports.
Japan
- 10:00 PM EST / 11:00 PM BRT – Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Jul): Consensus TBD, previous 37.06. Tracks consumer trends, affecting export demand.
China
- 10:00 PM EST / 11:00 PM BRT – China Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Jul): Consensus TBD, previous 69.52. Gauges consumer sentiment, critical for Brazil’s commodity exports.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
On July 9, 2025, Brazil’s B3 stock market faced a sharp decline, with the Ibovespa dropping 1.31% to 137,480.79 points, its lowest close since May.
Official exchange data show the U.S. dollar rose 1.04% to R$5.5024, driven by U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports, effective August 1, 2025, citing Brazil’s trade practices and its perceived persecution of Jair Bolsonaro.
Brazil summoned the U.S. chargé d’affaires and warned of reciprocal measures, triggering a selloff in stocks with U.S. exposure and amplifying volatility.
Central Bank President Gabriel Galípolo’s reaffirmation of the 15% Selic rate and 3% inflation target failed to restore confidence amid elevated inflation expectations.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. stocks rose on July 9, 2025, as the Trump administration pursued trade deals with global partners. The S&P 500 gained 0.6% to 6,263.26, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.5% to 44,458.30, and the Nasdaq composite climbed 0.9% to 20,611.34.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 1.1% to 2,252.49. Nvidia became the first public company to surpass $4 trillion in market cap.
Merck’s acquisition of Verona Pharma lifted its shares, while copper prices eased after a tariff-driven spike. The U.S. market’s strength contrasted with Brazil’s struggles, as tariff fears weighed on emerging markets.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian real weakened on July 9, 2025, with the USD/BRL rising 1.04% to R$5.5024, driven by the U.S.’s 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods, effective August 1, 2025, and related market volatility.
The tariffs, tied to Brazil’s perceived actions against Bolsonaro, eroded confidence. Today’s CPI data and U.S. jobless claims will shape currency expectations.
Oil Prices
Oil markets faced pressure on July 9, 2025, amid supply concerns and demand uncertainties, impacting Petrobras’ revenues.
Brent crude weakened as tariff fears outweighed supply constraints. Today’s U.S. Natural Gas Storage and Fed speeches will provide critical demand signals for Brazil’s energy sector.
Gold Prices
Gold prices held firm on July 9, 2025, supported by trade tensions and central bank activity, benefiting Brazil’s mining sector, including Vale.
Geopolitical risks, including U.S.-Brazil tariff disputes, bolstered safe-haven demand. Today’s German CPI and U.S. jobless claims will influence safe-haven flows.
Silver Prices
Silver prices stalled on July 9, 2025, as traders awaited clearer signals amid tight supply, supporting Brazil’s mining exports.
Tariff-related uncertainties limited upside. Today’s U.S. jobless claims and Italian industrial production data will guide industrial and safe-haven demand trends.
Copper Prices
Copper prices eased on July 9, 2025, after a tariff-driven spike, as U.S. 50% tariffs on imports, including Brazilian goods, reshaped market dynamics, pressuring Vale’s revenues. Today’s German CPI and Italian industrial production will clarify industrial demand trends.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin surged to new highs above $108,000 on July 9, 2025, driven by strong market momentum and ETF inflows, supporting Brazil’s fintech sector, including Mercado Livre and XP Inc.
Tariff fears tempered risk appetite. Today’s U.S. jobless claims and Fed speeches will influence crypto sentiment.
Iron Ore Prices
Iron ore prices rallied on July 9, 2025, marking their strongest gain since May, driven by robust Chinese demand, supporting Vale’s outlook despite tariff risks. Today’s German CPI and China’s consumer sentiment data will signal commodity demand trends.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s commodity-driven economy, a major GDP contributor, faces challenges from the 15% Selic rate, which raises borrowing costs for exporters and domestic firms.
Fiscal pressures, with a R$104 billion deficit and 76.2% debt-to-GDP ratio, are intensified by U.S. 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods, citing Brazil’s actions against Bolsonaro.
These tariffs threaten export revenues and economic stability. Today’s CPI, U.S. jobless claims, and German CPI will shape export demand and market sentiment for Brazil’s key industries. Below are key developments impacting the market:
Political Developments in São Paulo
Tarcísio de Freitas widened his lead in the São Paulo governor race, signaling political stability that could support infrastructure and commodity sectors.
U.S. Lawsuit Against Brazilian Judge
A U.S. lawsuit targeting a Brazilian judge highlights tensions over digital speech, impacting investor confidence in Brazil’s judicial stability and tech sector.
Petroreconcavo’s Production Dip
Petroreconcavo navigated a production decline but expanded gas infrastructure, supporting energy sector resilience amid tariff pressures.
Tenda’s Housing Market Growth
Tenda grew in Brazil’s housing market but faced rising buyer struggles due to high interest rates, reflecting challenges in the construction sector.
Rumo’s Railway Expansion
Rumo’s railways boosted Brazil’s farm exports, strengthening the agribusiness sector despite tariff threats.
Latam’s Growth in Brazil
Latam’s strategic focus on Brazil delivered solid growth, supporting the aviation sector amid economic headwinds.
Helbor’s Accounting Issues
Helbor faced scrutiny over accounting practices, raising investor concerns in the real estate sector.
Cyrela’s Record Launches
Cyrela’s record project launches signaled a shift in Brazil’s housing market, boosting construction sector optimism.
SLC Agrícola’s Expansion
SLC Agrícola grew as farmland values surged, strengthening Brazil’s agribusiness sector.
Oi’s Debt Battle
Oi turned to U.S. courts to resolve its debt crisis, highlighting challenges in Brazil’s telecom sector.
Hypera’s Shareholder Strategy
Hypera’s founder rallied shareholders to block a rival takeover, impacting pharmaceutical sector dynamics.
Cury’s Sales Growth
Cury boosted sales value by 28% in Q2 2025, despite fewer launches, reflecting resilience in Brazil’s housing sector.
Explanation of EST
Eastern Standard Time (EST) is the time zone used in the eastern United States, including New York, Washington, D.C., and Miami, set at UTC-5, five hours behind Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).
EST is applied here for consistency, as requested, and is the standard for U.S. financial markets, influencing global trading schedules.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+2.44%
177,547.57
+2.44%
67,298.78
+0.88%
11,009.22
+0.50%
3,379,771
+2.98%
2,297.00
-0.19%
57,575.02
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 177,547.57 | +2.44% | +32.46% | 173,325.65 | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.06 | +0.05% | -9.11% | 5.05 | 5.06 | 5.04 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.77 | -0.48% | -11.55% | 5.80 | 5.78 | 5.76 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 92.89 | -1.25% | +35.59% | 94.07 | 86.64 | 85.01 | 16,251 |
| WTI | 90.11 | +3.78% | +38.10% | 86.83 | 90.35 | 87.32 | 86,316 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +64.76% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,094 | -1.27% | +20.63% | 4,147 | 4,144 | 4,075 | 44,411 |
| SILVER | 59.13 | -1.49% | +50.53% | 60.02 | 60.36 | 58.91 | 8,694 |
| LITHIUM | 69.00 | -0.12% | +58.73% | 69.08 | 69.65 | 68.95 | 261,058 |
| SOY | 1,241 | +0.63% | +23.37% | 1,233 | 1,245 | 1,236 | 20,002 |
| CORN | 486.75 | +5.36% | +22.15% | 462.00 | 487.50 | 483.00 | 35,083 |
| WHEAT | 704.25 | -0.21% | +30.30% | 705.75 | 710.00 | 698.25 | 14,234 |
| COFFEE | 313.60 | -0.96% | +4.07% | 316.65 | 321.30 | 312.95 | 1,113 |
| SUGAR | 14.82 | +0.54% | -8.74% | 14.74 | 14.86 | 14.73 | 6,878 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 147.50 | +2.57% | -56.17% | 143.80 | 150.50 | 140.55 | — |
| COTTON | 81.64 | +2.22% | +22.55% | 79.87 | 81.75 | 79.75 | 3,651 |
| BEEF | 219.20 | -3.30% | -3.45% | 226.68 | 222.55 | 218.83 | 22,518 |
| CATTLE | 336.15 | -3.83% | +1.40% | 349.55 | 344.00 | 335.00 | 11,864 |
| COCOA | 5,334 | +0.11% | -36.80% | 5,328 | 5,540 | 5,333 | 1,745 |
| PETR4 | 42.58 | +2.21% | +35.82% | 41.66 | 42.74 | 41.97 | 38,183,300 |
| VALE3 | 75.10 | +3.96% | +30.61% | 72.24 | 75.25 | 73.34 | 17,699,600 |
| SUZB3 | 42.66 | +2.47% | -16.78% | 41.63 | 42.69 | 41.65 | 4,974,100 |
| KLABIN | 17.93 | +1.93% | -2.74% | 17.59 | 18.00 | 17.64 | 4,305,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.96 | +1.53% | -12.41% | 13.75 | 14.01 | 13.71 | 4,319,100 |
| ABEV3 | 16.13 | +2.09% | +20.37% | 15.80 | 16.14 | 15.74 | 28,786,900 |
| ITUB4 | 42.90 | +0.87% | +26.25% | 42.53 | 42.98 | 42.27 | 21,968,600 |
| BBDC4 | 18.97 | +2.26% | +21.37% | 18.55 | 18.97 | 18.50 | 36,435,800 |
| BBAS3 | 21.09 | +1.01% | +6.03% | 20.88 | 21.13 | 20.72 | 19,245,300 |
| B3SA3 | 15.90 | +4.81% | +21.65% | 15.17 | 15.92 | 15.21 | 46,018,300 |
| WEGE3 | 46.74 | +10.05% | +13.12% | 42.47 | 47.06 | 44.80 | 34,056,700 |
| PRIO3 | 59.77 | +2.73% | +40.37% | 58.18 | 59.99 | 58.66 | 5,034,400 |
| RENT3 | 37.14 | +1.61% | +3.74% | 36.55 | 37.57 | 36.42 | 16,101,400 |
| AZZA3 | 17.81 | +1.89% | -50.51% | 17.48 | 17.81 | 17.06 | 1,753,800 |
| CSNA3 | 5.38 | +6.32% | -37.15% | 5.06 | 5.43 | 5.09 | 13,057,800 |
| GGBR4 | 24.06 | +2.43% | +42.28% | 23.49 | 24.09 | 23.46 | 7,453,900 |
| ENEV3 | 25.97 | +2.16% | +88.19% | 25.42 | 26.08 | 25.32 | 5,925,700 |
| LREN3 | 13.54 | +2.03% | -22.27% | 13.27 | 13.59 | 13.29 | 8,223,100 |
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