Tarcísio de Freitas Widens Lead in São Paulo Governor Race, Backed by Strong Approval
A new poll from Paraná Pesquisas, conducted from July 4 to 8, 2025, shows São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas with a clear advantage in the race for re-election.
The survey, which included 1,680 voters from 84 cities, reveals that Tarcísio holds 44.6% of voting intentions. His nearest rival, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, has 20.6%.
Other candidates, such as federal deputy Erika Hilton and Sorocaba mayor Rodrigo Manga, trail with 9.6% and 5.3% respectively. The poll’s margin of error is 2.4 percentage points. Tarcísio’s strong position in the polls matches his public approval.
Half of São Paulo’s voters rate his administration as “excellent” or “good.” Specifically, 19.9% say it is “excellent” and 30.2% call it “good.” About 29.4% consider his government “regular,” while 7.1% rate it “poor” and 12% “terrible.”
Only 1.4% did not have an opinion. São Paulo is Brazil’s economic center, responsible for about a third of the country’s GDP. The state’s political stability matters for both local and international investors.
Tarcísio’s focus on infrastructure, safety, and economic reforms has helped him win support from business leaders and the general public. His lead shows that many voters want continuity and steady management.
The poll also shows that most voters have already chosen a candidate, with only 6.4% saying they would vote blank or null, and 3.9% undecided. This suggests little room for major changes before the election.
Tarcísio’s broad support and high approval ratings highlight a preference for stability and practical leadership in Brazil’s most important state. His administration’s performance will likely continue to influence both São Paulo and the wider country in the months ahead.
Approval Ratings
Tarcísio’s commanding position in the polls is closely linked to his administration’s approval:
| Rating | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Excellent | 19.9% |
| Good | 30.2% |
| Regular | 29.4% |
| Poor | 7.1% |
| Terrible | 12.0% |
| Don’t know | 1.4% |
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This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief