Iron Ore Surges in Strongest Rally Since May as Chinese Demand Holds Firm
Iron ore prices delivered to China, tracked by the SGX TSI 62% Fe CFR China Index, staged their most powerful rally since May 12, closing at $97.70 per ton on July 10, 2025, according to official exchange figures and trading charts.
Market participants attributed the surge to robust Chinese steel demand and a tightening in seaborne supply, which together sparked a decisive shift in sentiment and trading activity.
During the past 24 hours, futures on the Singapore Exchange opened with strong upward momentum and sustained those gains through the Asian session.
The Dalian Commodity Exchange reflected this strength, with its most-traded contract closing at 736.5 yuan per ton, up 0.68% on the day.
Spot prices for Pilbara Blend fines in Shandong and Tangshan rose by 2–5 yuan per ton, underscoring the intensity of physical demand. Chinese steel mills maintained high blast furnace utilization rates, near 87%.
Daily pig iron output held steady at 2.41 million metric tons, showing only a slight monthly drop. These figures highlight that mills have little incentive to scale back production, as margins remain positive and finished steel inventories have not reached problematic levels.
Seasonal maintenance at key mining operations further limited available cargoes, adding to the upward pressure on prices.
Macroeconomic factors shaped the day’s narrative. Chinese authorities reaffirmed their commitment to cutting excess steel capacity and improving product quality.
Traders read this as a supportive signal for ongoing iron ore demand. However, uncertainty persisted due to sporadic reports of steel production restrictions in regions such as Shanxi and Tangshan.
The Chinese real estate sector and export markets continued to show weakness, while global trade tensions, including U.S. tariffs on Chinese steel, contributed to a cautious market mood.
Technical analysis of the daily chart revealed that the price approached but did not breach the 200-day moving average at $101.43. The 50-day and 100-day moving averages provided support near $95.50 and $96.79, respectively.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) jumped to 61.68, signaling a clear shift toward bullish momentum but not yet indicating overbought conditions. The MACD confirmed a bullish crossover, supporting the upward move.
Bollinger Bands widened as volatility increased, and prices moved toward the upper band, often a sign of short-term overextension. The four-hour chart reinforced the short-term bullish view.
The RSI entered overbought territory at 72.60, and the MACD histogram showed rising positive momentum. Volume spiked during the rally, confirming the breakout above short-term resistance at $96.88.
Despite the surge, the price struggled to hold above key resistance, signaling that traders remain cautious about extending the rally without further confirmation.
Market participants focused on hard fundamentals and technical signals. The combination of steady Chinese demand, supply constraints, and supportive policy statements fueled the strongest single-day rally since May.
However, persistent macroeconomic risks and technical resistance may limit further upside in the near term. The market remains alert, closely monitoring steel production policy and global trade developments.
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Commodities — Live Market Board
-1.56%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | 4,095 | -1.25% | +20.65% | 4,147 | 4,144 | 4,075 | 44,897 |
| SILVER | 59.10 | -1.53% | +50.47% | 60.02 | 60.36 | 58.91 | 8,737 |
| BRENT | 92.60 | -1.56% | +35.16% | 94.07 | 86.64 | 85.01 | 16,877 |
| WTI | 89.97 | +3.62% | +37.89% | 86.83 | 90.35 | 87.32 | 88,823 |
| COPPER | 6.46 | +0.14% | +11.48% | 6.45 | 6.54 | 6.44 | 8,774 |
| LITHIUM | 69.00 | -0.12% | +58.73% | 69.08 | 69.65 | 68.95 | 261,058 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +64.76% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| SOY | 1,241 | +0.61% | +23.34% | 1,233 | 1,245 | 1,236 | 20,154 |
| CORN | 487.00 | +5.41% | +22.21% | 462.00 | 487.50 | 483.00 | 35,646 |
| WHEAT | 703.50 | -0.32% | +30.16% | 705.75 | 710.00 | 698.25 | 15,067 |
| COFFEE | 314.40 | -0.71% | +4.33% | 316.65 | 321.30 | 312.55 | 1,506 |
| SUGAR | 14.81 | +0.47% | -8.81% | 14.74 | 14.86 | 14.73 | 7,253 |
| COCOA | 5,330 | +0.04% | -36.85% | 5,328 | 5,540 | 5,333 | 1,910 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 147.50 | +2.57% | -56.17% | 143.80 | 150.50 | 140.55 | — |
| COTTON | 81.64 | +2.22% | +22.55% | 79.87 | 81.75 | 79.75 | 3,651 |
| BEEF | 219.20 | -3.30% | -3.45% | 226.68 | 222.55 | 218.83 | 22,518 |
| CATTLE | 336.15 | -3.83% | +1.40% | 349.55 | 344.00 | 335.00 | 11,864 |
| USD/BRL | 5.06 | +0.04% | -9.12% | 5.05 | 5.06 | 5.04 | — |
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