Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for February 4, 2025
Brazilian financial markets enter today’s trading session ready to digest a series of domestic economic indicators that will shape market sentiment, including the Fipe CPI, Copom Minutes, and PPI. These releases are pivotal as they will influence expectations around inflation, monetary policy, and industrial performance.
Additionally, the global economic landscape will be influenced by U.S. manufacturing and labor market data, alongside speeches from Federal Reserve members, potentially affecting commodity markets and Brazil’s export revenues. In Europe, a suite of Services PMI releases will indicate the health of service sectors, while in Asia, key service PMI data from Japan and China could sway global investor sentiment.
The interplay of these local and international events will be crucial, particularly with ongoing global trade tensions, highlighted by U.S. tariff policies, which could have ripple effects on commodity prices and market stability.
Economic Agenda for February 4, 2025
Brazil
- 5:00 AM – Fipe CPI: This consumer price index will offer insights into inflation trends, crucial for monetary policy calibration.
- 8:00 AM – Copom Minutes: These minutes will be dissected for clues on future interest rate decisions.
- 10:00 AM – PPI: Producers’ price changes will be observed to predict downstream price movements.
United States
- 10:00 AM – Factory Orders (MoM) (Dec): Indicative of manufacturing health, this could impact perceptions of global economic health.
- 11:00 AM – FOMC Member Bostic Speaks: His insights might sway expectations on U.S. monetary policy.
- 12:00 PM – JOLTS Job Openings: Important for understanding labor market tightness and wage pressures.
- 1:15 PM – FOMC Member Daly Speaks: Another opportunity for market participants to gauge Fed’s direction.
- 4:30 PM – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: Influential for oil market sentiment, directly affecting Brazil.
Canada
- 8:30 AM – Trade Balance (Dec): Relevant for trade-dependent economies like Brazil.
Europe
- 3:15 AM – Spanish Services PMI (Jan) to 4:30 AM – UK Services PMI (Jan): These will reflect service sector vitality across Europe.
- 7:40 AM – German Buba Balz Speaks: His comments could influence ECB policy expectations.
Japan
- 9:30 AM – Services PMI: Japan’s service sector performance, relevant for global economic forecasts.
China
- 10:45 PM – Caixin Services PMI: Key for understanding China’s post-Lunar New Year economic recovery.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Ibovespa edged down by 0.13% to 125,970 points, influenced by anticipation of Petrobras’ production data amidst U.S. trade policy changes. The Brazilian real continued its impressive run, with the dollar falling 0.35% to R$5.8160, marking its longest decline streak since 2005.
Petrobras’ shares saw a decline despite oil price gains, signaling investor caution. Vale ended slightly up, anticipating Chinese demand, while Natura rose sharply on a Goldman Sachs upgrade. Conversely, Azul Airlines fell due to higher fuel expenses.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
The markets reacted to Trump’s tariff announcements, with the S&P 500 losing 0.8%, the Dow Jones by 0.3%, and Nasdaq by 1.2%. However, losses were moderated after news of a temporary tariff reprieve for Mexico.
Commodity Markets
Oil Prices
The threat of reduced global demand due to tariffs weighed on oil markets, affecting Brazil’s oil sector. Read more…
Gold Prices
Investors flocked to gold, pushing prices to new heights amid trade uncertainties. Read more…
Bitcoin Prices
The cryptocurrency showed resilience despite market turbulence. Read more…
Companies and Markets
Petrobras: Despite production declines, it maintained its pre-salt dominance. Read more…
CCR Group: Committed to significant infrastructure investment. Read more…
Construction Costs: Rising costs are driving innovation in Brazil’s construction sector. Read more..
Foreign Capital: Continued to flow into Brazil, supporting the real. Read more…
EZTEC and Lindenberg: Formed a strategic alliance to strengthen their market position. Read more…
JBS: Settled for $83.5 million, highlighting the challenges in the meat industry. Read more…
Outlook
The convergence of today’s domestic data releases with international economic cues will be key. Investors will watch closely for any signs of inflation acceleration or industrial slowdown in Brazil, while global trade tensions, particularly involving the U.S., remain a significant external factor. The resilience of Brazil’s recent market performance will hinge on these dynamics, with potential volatility on the horizon should trade disputes escalate.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-1.52%
174,041.95
-1.52%
66,383.68
+0.21%
10,950.74
+0.31%
3,283,854
-1.07%
2,274.53
-0.38%
58,287.01
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 174,041.95 | -1.52% | +30.07% | 176,723.62 | 176,720 | 174,042 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.08 | -0.24% | -8.00% | 5.09 | 5.08 | 5.08 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.78 | +0.08% | -10.91% | 5.78 | 5.80 | 5.75 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 96.78 | -3.88% | +38.18% | 100.69 | 101.16 | 95.14 | 29,916 |
| WTI | 89.31 | -3.12% | +33.88% | 92.19 | 92.83 | 87.68 | 336,373 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +64.09% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,071 | +0.60% | +23.02% | 4,047 | 4,085 | 4,024 | 112,402 |
| SILVER | 58.91 | +1.92% | +54.91% | 57.80 | 59.29 | 57.36 | 26,053 |
| LITHIUM | 67.81 | -1.75% | +51.94% | 69.02 | 68.69 | 67.73 | 177,410 |
| SOY | 1,254 | +1.29% | +26.78% | 1,238 | 1,257 | 1,238 | 166,916 |
| CORN | 487.25 | +5.01% | +23.75% | 464.00 | 492.00 | 479.25 | 257,469 |
| WHEAT | 678.00 | -2.62% | +25.91% | 696.25 | 711.25 | 659.50 | 117,726 |
| COFFEE | 298.25 | -3.60% | -1.14% | 309.40 | 318.55 | 306.40 | 14,168 |
| SUGAR | 14.76 | +0.48% | -10.16% | 14.69 | 14.79 | 14.54 | 45,966 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 142.65 | -2.83% | -56.17% | 146.80 | 146.15 | 141.50 | 345 |
| COTTON | 79.89 | +0.06% | +18.53% | 79.84 | 80.76 | 78.28 | 9,674 |
| BEEF | 222.50 | -1.29% | -2.36% | 225.40 | 224.13 | 220.78 | 19,283 |
| CATTLE | 341.45 | -0.68% | +2.38% | 343.77 | 345.48 | 337.25 | 9,940 |
| COCOA | 5,467 | +3.13% | -35.82% | 5,301 | 5,438 | 5,227 | 17,604 |
| PETR4 | 42.21 | -1.72% | +32.15% | 42.95 | 42.91 | 42.15 | 29,108,700 |
| VALE3 | 75.24 | -0.58% | +33.10% | 75.68 | 75.53 | 74.84 | 8,619,900 |
| SUZB3 | 41.84 | -1.39% | -18.76% | 42.43 | 42.25 | 41.63 | 3,639,400 |
| KLABIN | 17.52 | -0.79% | -5.27% | 17.66 | 17.59 | 17.32 | 3,680,600 |
| SLCE3 | 13.64 | -0.94% | -14.51% | 13.77 | 13.80 | 13.63 | 1,432,500 |
| ABEV3 | 15.64 | -1.76% | +15.85% | 15.92 | 15.90 | 15.61 | 15,223,800 |
| ITUB4 | 42.10 | -1.08% | +23.68% | 42.56 | 42.45 | 42.04 | 10,431,800 |
| BBDC4 | 18.48 | -1.28% | +17.86% | 18.72 | 18.64 | 18.42 | 13,961,200 |
| BBAS3 | 20.35 | -2.77% | +1.40% | 20.93 | 20.82 | 20.35 | 14,376,600 |
| B3SA3 | 15.44 | -1.34% | +17.68% | 15.65 | 15.67 | 15.43 | 35,146,900 |
| WEGE3 | 45.99 | +0.70% | +26.94% | 45.67 | 46.19 | 44.94 | 7,718,600 |
| PRIO3 | 58.82 | -2.84% | +39.05% | 60.54 | 60.27 | 58.46 | 5,375,200 |
| RENT3 | 36.89 | -0.67% | +2.56% | 37.14 | 37.38 | 36.59 | 4,733,700 |
| AZZA3 | 16.65 | -2.35% | -54.40% | 17.05 | 17.17 | 16.65 | 1,511,900 |
| CSNA3 | 5.36 | +1.13% | -37.31% | 5.30 | 5.45 | 5.24 | 8,140,000 |
| GGBR4 | 24.26 | +0.83% | +40.39% | 24.06 | 24.45 | 23.82 | 5,543,500 |
| ENEV3 | 24.90 | -3.11% | +79.65% | 25.70 | 25.58 | 24.87 | 4,494,900 |
| LREN3 | 13.27 | -0.75% | -22.31% | 13.37 | 13.49 | 13.18 | 7,803,700 |
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