Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for February 13, 2025
Brazilian financial markets are poised for a dynamic trading day as key domestic and international economic indicators come into focus. Today’s spotlight will be on Brazil’s retail sales data, which serves as a barometer of consumer spending and economic vitality.
Globally, the release of U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) figures and Initial Jobless Claims will influence monetary policy expectations, while the United Kingdom’s GDP data will provide insights into European economic conditions.
These developments are critical for investors navigating a complex landscape shaped by inflationary pressures, geopolitical uncertainties, and shifting trade dynamics. Market participants will closely monitor these indicators for their potential to sway currency valuations, commodity prices, and investment flows.
Economic Agenda for February 13, 2025
Brazil
09:00 AM – Retail Sales: A key indicator of consumer demand and economic momentum in Brazil.
United States
10:30 AM – Producer Price Index (PPI): Offers insights into inflation at the wholesale level, influencing Federal Reserve policy.
10:30 AM – Initial Jobless Claims: Reflects labor market health and consumer confidence.
United Kingdom
04:00 AM – GDP (QoQ, YoY): Critical for understanding post-Brexit economic resilience.
02:00 AM – Business Investment (QoQ): A measure of private sector confidence.
02:00 AM – Trade Balance (Dec): Highlights trade dynamics amid global uncertainties.
Germany
04:00 AM – CPI (YoY): Key for assessing inflationary trends in Europe’s largest economy.
China
05:00 AM – New Loans (Jan): Indicates credit expansion and its implications for commodity markets.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Ibovespa, Brazil’s main stock index, reversed early February gains, closing Tuesday (11th) with a 1.69% drop at 124,380.21 points.
Carrefour Brasil (CRFB3) led gains on the Ibovespa after its French parent company, Carrefour S.A., proposed converting the Brazilian retailer into a wholly owned subsidiary, signaling its potential delisting from the B3 exchange.
Currency Markets
The Brazilian real ended slightly stronger at R$5.7631 against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, reflecting market reactions to higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data. The dollar index (DXY) also saw minor fluctuations, closing at 107.939. Domestically, President Lula da Silva reaffirmed his confidence in Central Bank President Gabriel Galípolo’s gradualist approach to interest rate adjustments.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. stocks fell after a report said inflation is unexpectedly worsening for Americans.
The S&P 500 dropped 0.3% Wednesday, though it had been on track for a much worse loss of 1.1% at the start of trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%, while the Nasdaq composite wound up little changed.
Stocks pared their losses through the day as oil prices eased. Treasury yields leaped to crank up the pressure on financial markets after the morning’s inflation report showed an unexpected acceleration for January. That reinforced bets the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates this year.
- The S&P 500 fell 16.53 points, or 0.3%, to 6,051.97.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 225.09 points, or 0.5%, to 44,368.56.
- The Nasdaq composite rose 6.09 points, or less than 0.1%, to 19,649.95.
Commodity Markets
Oil Prices
Oil prices dropped sharply as potential progress in Ukraine-Russia ceasefire talks gained momentum. Brent crude fell 2.36% to $75.18 per barrel, while WTI declined 2.65% to $71.37 per barrel. Rising U.S. crude inventories added downward pressure on prices.
Gold Prices
Gold stabilized after retreating from record highs earlier this week. Spot gold hovered near $2,884.51 per ounce amidst geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation concerns. Central bank purchases and ETF inflows continue to support long-term bullish sentiment.
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin traded steadily around $96,650 despite broader market volatility driven by macroeconomic pressures. AI-related tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) outperformed, reflecting growing interest in blockchain innovation.
Companies and Markets
Brava Energia reported a production surge to 68,000 barrels per day in January, driven by offshore operations. Read more…
MAPFRE posted a 9.5% profit growth in Brazil despite currency depreciation and economic headwinds. Read more…
Brazil’s Trade Surplus shrank by 25% in 2024 due to shifting regional dynamics and reduced soybean exports to China. Read more…
Embraer Commits $4 Billion: Embraer, Brazil’s leading aerospace manufacturer, plans to invest R$20 billion ($3.9 billion USD) in its domestic operations by 2030.
Brazil’s Service Sector Contracts in December: Brazil’s service sector, a cornerstone of its economy, contracted by 0.5% in December 2024 compared to November, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
Brazilian Industry Closes 2024 with Growth: The Brazilian industrial sector recorded significant growth in 2024, with production increasing in 17 of the 18 regions surveyed by the Monthly Regional Industrial Survey (PIM Regional). Read more…
Record Equity Fund Outflows Hit Brazil: Brazilian equity funds faced a record-breaking exodus in January 2025, with outflows totaling R$9.8 billion ($1.63 billion), according to a report by Bank of America (BofA). Read more…
Minerva Revises Bid to Acquire Marfrig Plants: Brazilian meatpacker Minerva Foods (BEEF3) has submitted a revised proposal to Uruguay’s antitrust authority, Comisión de Promoción y Defensa de la Competencia (Coprodec). Read more…
Outlook
The interplay between domestic retail sales data and global economic indicators will shape today’s market sentiment. The U.S. PPI figures could recalibrate expectations for Federal Reserve actions, influencing capital flows into emerging markets like Brazil.
Meanwhile, geopolitical developments and commodity price movements remain pivotal for Brazilian equities and the real.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+0.46%
183,827.59
+0.46%
65,071.30
+0.20%
11,055.91
-0.73%
2,782,561
-0.59%
2,558.92
-0.79%
60,220.45
+0.32%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 183,827.59 | +0.46% | +21.85% | 182,991.13 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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