Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for February 11, 2025
Brazilian financial markets are set for a dynamic day with key economic indicators poised to shape investor sentiment and policy direction. This morning, the IPCA inflation report at 9:00 AM will be central, offering insights into Brazil’s price levels.
Simultaneously, at 10:00 AM, Fed Chair Powell’s testimony in the U.S. could send ripples through global finance, given its implications on monetary policy. The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook and WASDE Report, both scheduled for 12:00 PM, will critically affect Brazil’s commodity sectors.
Economic Agenda for February 11, 2025
Brazil
09:00 AM – IPCA (Brazil): The release of the IPCA, Brazil’s primary inflation measure, is vital as it reflects consumer price changes, influencing interest rate decisions and monetary policy adjustments by the Central Bank.
The Americas
08:30 AM – Building Permits (MoM) (Dec) (Canada): This indicator can signal future construction activity, affecting commodities markets where Brazil has significant interests.
10:00 AM – Fed Chair Powell Testifies (USA): Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony could provide insights into U.S. monetary policy, impacting global markets, including Brazil, especially concerning interest rates and currency valuation.
12:00 PM – EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (USA): This outlook provides projections on energy supply, demand, and prices, directly affecting Brazilian oil and gas sectors.
12:00 PM – WASDE Report (USA): The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report is crucial for Brazil, a major exporter of agricultural products, as it influences global commodity prices.
1:00 PM – 3-Year Note Auction (USA): This event could influence U.S. Treasury yields, which in turn can affect investment flows into emerging markets like Brazil.
3:30 PM – FOMC Member Bowman Speaks (USA): Statements from Federal Reserve officials can sway market expectations about monetary policy.
3:30 PM – FOMC Member Williams Speaks (USA): Similar to Bowman, Williams’ comments could provide further clarity or introduce new variables into market expectations.
4:30 PM – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (USA): This data impacts oil prices, relevant for Brazil given its role in global oil markets.
Europe
03:45 AM – BoE MPC Member Mann (GBP): Insights from the Bank of England could influence GBP movements, indirectly affecting Brazil’s trade with Europe.
07:15 AM – BoE Gov Bailey Speaks (GBP): Governor Bailey’s remarks on economic conditions might have broader implications for global finance.
12:00 PM – ECB’s Schnabel Speaks (EUR): As a key figure in the ECB, her statements could affect the Euro’s strength, influencing Brazilian trade dynamics with Europe.
Rest of the World
05:00 AM – New Loans (Jan) (CNY): China’s new loan figures are significant for Brazil due to its economic ties and trade in commodities like soybeans and iron ore.
07:00 AM – CPI (YoY) (Jan) (BRL): Reflecting Brazil’s inflation rate, this data is critical for understanding domestic economic health.
7:30 PM – Home Loans (MoM) (AUD): Although not directly related, Australian economic indicators can affect commodity markets, which are of interest to Brazil.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Brazilian stock market, Ibovespa, experienced a recovery, rising 0.76% to close at 125,571.81 points on February 10, 2025. This uptick was supported by gains in cyclical stocks and metal commodities, despite the global trade tensions sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements.
Vale (VALE3) and Petrobras (PETR4; PETR3) were among the companies leading the advance, with Gerdau (GGBR4) seeing significant gains due to anticipated benefits from U.S. tariffs. However, not all sectors benefited, with some like Cogna (COGN3) showing varied performance based on analyst recommendations.
The Brazilian Real strengthened against the US Dollar, closing at R$5.78, as concerns over potential tariff impacts from the US eased slightly.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. markets reacted positively to the news of tariffs with the S&P 500 up by 0.7%, the Dow Jones by 0.4%, and the Nasdaq by 1%, reflecting resilience in the face of trade war concerns. This performance was buoyed by gains in steel and aluminum sectors following Trump’s tariff announcements, alongside positive movements in companies like McDonald’s.
Commodity Markets
Oil Prices
Oil prices saw an increase amidst rising geopolitical tensions and the U.S. tariff announcements, affecting global supply dynamics.
Gold Prices
Gold reached a record high, driven by safe-haven demand amid trade war fears.
Crypto Prices
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced volatility, with Bitcoin stalling below $100k, while Solana showed notable growth in revenue.
Companies and Markets
Bradesco: Despite a significant profit increase in 2024, Q4 earnings underperformed, leading to a share drop. Bradesco aims for market confidence recovery by 2026. Read more…
BTG Pactual: Achieved record profits amidst a competitive banking environment in Brazil. Read more…
Gerdau: Finalized the acquisition of Gerdau Summit, potentially benefiting from U.S. tariffs on steel. Read more…
Trump’s 25% Tariffs Shake Brazil’s $6 Billion Steel and Aluminum Exports. Read more…
Brazil’s João Santos Group: Once a dominant player in Brazil’s cement industry, the João Santos Group is now navigating a court-approved recovery plan to address its staggering R$13 billion ($2.17 billion) in liabilities. Read more…
São Martinho: Despite a profit drop, shares rose with analysts seeing long-term potential. Read more…
Brava Energia: Sold onshore oil fields, indicating a strategic portfolio shift. Read more…
Brazilian Auto Sector: Started 2025 with growth in exports but a decline in domestic sales. Read more…
Outlook
Today’s economic indicators from both domestic and international fronts will be pivotal. Investors will be particularly watchful of how these events might adjust expectations around Brazil’s inflation rates, commodity prices, and the implications of U.S. tariff policies on Brazilian exports. The day’s developments could significantly influence market sentiment, currency strength, and investment decisions in Brazil.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+0.46%
183,827.59
+0.46%
65,071.30
+0.20%
11,055.91
-0.73%
2,782,561
-0.59%
2,558.92
-0.79%
60,220.45
+0.32%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 183,827.59 | +0.46% | +21.85% | 182,991.13 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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