Ibovespa Rises as Vale and Commodities Defy Global Trade Tensions

The Brazilian stock market, Ibovespa, closed on a positive note on February 10, 2025, recovering losses from the previous session. The index rose 0.76% to reach 125,571.81 points, supported by gains in cyclical stocks and metal commodities.

This performance came despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, a move that has sparked global trade concerns.

Shares of Vale (VALE3), a key player in the commodities sector, helped drive the Ibovespa higher. Petrobras (PETR4; PETR3) also posted gains, benefiting from strong commodity prices.

Steelmaker Gerdau (GGBR4) saw its stock rise over 4.5%, as analysts predicted its U.S.-based operations could gain from reduced competition due to the tariffs.

Meanwhile, Cogna (COGN3) advanced after Santander upgraded its recommendation to “buy,” reflecting optimism in the education sector. However, not all sectors shared in the gains.

Airline Azul (AZUL4) faced the sharpest decline of the day, pressured by rising oil prices and a stronger dollar abroad, which increased operational costs. Domestically, investor sentiment improved after Brazil’s government denied rumors of changes to the Bolsa Família welfare program.

Yet inflation concerns lingered as the Central Bank‘s Focus Report revealed economists raised their inflation forecast for the 17th consecutive week, now expecting a rate of 5.58% for 2025.

Global Trade Uncertainty

Globally, Trump’s tariff announcement dominated headlines. The U.S., Brazil’s largest buyer of iron and steel, imported $3.49 billion worth of these materials from Brazil in 2024 alone.

The tariffs threaten to disrupt this trade flow, potentially impacting Brazil’s $6 billion metal export industry. While Gerdau may benefit from its U.S. operations, other Brazilian exporters face challenges adapting to this policy shift.

In the U.S., major indices like the Dow Jones (+0.38%), S&P 500 (+0.67%), and Nasdaq (+0.98%) shrugged off trade tensions to close higher. Investors focused on upcoming economic data and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony for clues on future monetary policy.

The Ibovespa’s recovery highlights its resilience amid global uncertainties. However, it also underscores the risks posed by protectionist policies and domestic inflationary pressures. Markets now await further developments as global trade dynamics shift under Trump’s renewed tariff agenda.

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