Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for August 13, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets open today under persistent strain from U.S. trade tensions, domestic fiscal challenges, and global economic uncertainties.
The U.S.’s 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports, effective August 6, 2025, continue to threaten export revenues, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing, with an estimated R$175 billion at risk.
Domestically, the Central Bank of Brazil’s Selic rate, steady at 15%, coupled with a 76.6% public debt-to-GDP ratio and a projected fiscal deficit, exerts pressure on retail and construction sectors.
Political tensions, exacerbated by the Supreme Court’s actions against opposition voices, further erode investor confidence.
Today’s economic agenda, including Brazil’s Retail Sales data and global indicators like U.S. Crude Oil Inventories and German CPI, will be pivotal in shaping market sentiment.
These events matter because they provide insights into consumer demand, inflation trends, and global commodity dynamics, directly impacting Brazil’s export-driven economy and currency stability.
Economic Agenda for August 13, 2025
Brazil
- 7:00 AM EST / 8:00 AM BRT – Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus 2.4%, Previous 2.1%. Tracks annual retail sales growth, reflecting consumer spending trends critical for economic recovery.
- 7:00 AM EST / 8:00 AM BRT – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.7%, Previous -0.2%. Measures monthly retail sales changes, indicating short-term consumer demand shifts.
- 10:00 AM EST / 11:00 AM BRT – Brazil Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 51.15. Gauges consumer confidence, influencing retail and investment sentiment.
- 12:30 PM EST / 1:30 PM BRT – Foreign Exchange Flows: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 2.010B. Tracks capital inflows and outflows, critical for Brazilian Real stability amid trade tensions.
United States (Key Events)
- 6:00 AM EST / 7:00 AM BRT – MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 6.77%. Reflects borrowing costs, impacting U.S. housing demand and global risk appetite.
- 6:00 AM EST / 7:00 AM BRT – MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 3.1%. Signals housing market activity, influencing economic growth expectations.
- 9:30 AM EST / 10:30 AM BRT – Crude Oil Inventories: Actual TBD, Consensus -0.900M, Previous -3.029M. Impacts global oil prices, critical for Brazil’s energy sector.
- 10:00 AM EST / 11:00 AM BRT – Cleveland CPI (MoM) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 0.3%. Provides regional inflation data, influencing U.S. monetary policy expectations.
- 7:00 AM EST / 8:00 AM BRT – FOMC Member Barkin Speaks: Monitors Federal Reserve sentiment, impacting global capital flows.
- 12:00 PM EST / 1:00 PM BRT – Fed Goolsbee Speaks: Provides insights into U.S. monetary policy, affecting dollar strength and commodity demand.
- 12:30 PM EST / 1:30 PM BRT – FOMC Member Bostic Speaks: Influences expectations for U.S. interest rates, impacting Brazil’s currency and exports.
Europe (Key Events)
- 1:00 AM EST / 2:00 AM BRT – German CPI (MoM) (Jul): Actual 0.3%, Consensus 0.3%, Previous 0.0%. Tracks monthly consumer price changes, signaling Eurozone inflation trends.
- 1:00 AM EST / 2:00 AM BRT – German CPI (YoY) (Jul): Actual 2.0%, Consensus 2.0%, Previous 2.0%. Measures annual inflation, impacting Eurozone demand for Brazilian exports.
- 1:00 AM EST / 2:00 AM BRT – German HICP (YoY) (Jul): Actual 1.8%, Consensus 1.8%, Previous 2.0%. Provides harmonized inflation data, guiding ECB policy.
- 1:00 AM EST / 2:00 AM BRT – German HICP (MoM) (Jul): Actual 0.4%, Consensus 0.4%, Previous 0.1%. Reflects short-term price changes, influencing Eurozone economic outlook.
- 1:00 AM EST / 2:00 AM BRT – German WPI (MoM) (Jul): Actual -0.1%, Consensus 0.2%, Previous 0.2%. Tracks wholesale price changes, signaling producer cost pressures.
- 1:00 AM EST / 2:00 AM BRT – German WPI (YoY) (Jul): Actual 0.5%, Consensus TBD, Previous 0.9%. Measures annual wholesale inflation, impacting export competitiveness.
- 4:30 AM EST / 5:30 AM BRT – German 10-Year Bund Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 2.620%. Gauges investor confidence in Eurozone debt, affecting global bond yields.
Other (Key Events)
- 1:00 AM EST / 2:00 AM BRT – JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (Jul): Actual 3.6%, Consensus TBD, Previous -0.5%. Signals industrial demand, impacting global commodity markets.
- 1:30 AM EST / 2:30 AM BRT – NOK Consumer Confidence (Q3): Actual -3.60, Consensus TBD, Previous -9.10. Reflects Norwegian consumer sentiment, influencing oil demand.
- 4:30 AM EST / 5:30 AM BRT – ZAR Business Confidence (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 115.8. Tracks South African business sentiment, impacting regional trade.
- 8:30 PM EST / 9:30 PM BRT – AUD Employment Change (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 25.3K, Previous 2.0K. Signals labor market strength, affecting commodity demand.
- 8:30 PM EST / 9:30 PM BRT – AUD Unemployment Rate (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 4.2%, Previous 4.3%. Influences Australian monetary policy, impacting global markets.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
Brazil’s main stock exchange, B3, rallied on August 12, 2025, following positive U.S. inflation data that boosted global market sentiment.
The Ibovespa index closed at 137,912 points, up 1.69%, reflecting optimism about potential U.S. interest rate cuts and commodity price stability.
However, U.S. tariffs of 50% on Brazilian exports, effective August 6, 2025, continue to weigh on investor confidence, particularly for agriculture and manufacturing sectors.
Brazilian officials are exploring trade diversification with Europe and Asia to mitigate tariff impacts, while the government prepares support measures for affected industries.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
On Tuesday, August 12, 2025, U.S. stock indexes hit record highs after a better-than-expected inflation report fueled hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts in September. The S&P 500 rose 72.31 points, or 1.1%, to 6,445.76.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 483.52 points, or 1.1%, to 44,458.61. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 296.50 points, or 1.4%, to 21,681.90.
The Russell 2000 surged 66.27 points, or 3%, to 2,282.78. The positive inflation data eased concerns about U.S. monetary tightening, lifting global risk assets and supporting Brazil’s commodity-driven market.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian Real strengthened to a 14-month high on August 12, 2025, with USD/BRL declining as U.S. inflation data supported global risk appetite.
Today’s Retail Sales (YoY) (7:00 AM EST / 8:00 AM BRT), Retail Sales (MoM) (7:00 AM EST / 8:00 AM BRT), Brazil Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (10:00 AM EST / 11:00 AM BRT), and Foreign Exchange Flows (12:30 PM EST / 1:30 PM BRT) will drive currency volatility.
Global data, including U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (9:30 AM EST / 10:30 AM BRT) and German CPI (1:00 AM EST / 2:00 AM BRT), will also influence the Real’s trajectory. Ongoing U.S. trade tensions and domestic fiscal concerns remain risks to stability.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin and Ethereum saw inflows into ETFs on August 12, 2025, driven by surging liquidity and positive U.S. inflation data.
Today’s U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (9:30 AM EST / 10:30 AM BRT) and FOMC speeches (7:00 AM EST / 8:00 AM BRT, 12:00 PM EST / 1:00 PM BRT, 12:30 PM EST / 1:30 PM BRT) will shape crypto sentiment, impacting Brazil’s fintech sector amid global market optimism.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s commodity-driven economy faces challenges from the 15% Selic rate, increasing borrowing costs, and a 76.6% debt-to-GDP ratio, alongside U.S. tariffs threatening export revenues, particularly in meat and coffee.
Today’s Retail Sales data, U.S. Crude Oil Inventories, German CPI, and Australian employment figures will shape demand for Brazil’s key industries, including agribusiness, energy, and manufacturing. Factories signal recovery but face headwinds from slowing growth and trade barriers in 2025.
Key Developments
Grupo Mateus’ Performance: Grupo Mateus reported stable Q2 2025 results, navigating retail sector challenges amid high interest rates.
Multilaser’s Struggles: Multilaser faced margin pressures in Q2 2025, reflecting difficulties in Brazil’s electronics sector.
Armac’s Resilience: Armac delivered solid Q2 2025 results, managing costs in Brazil’s equipment rental sector.
MRV&Co’s Losses: MRV&Co reported significant Q2 2025 losses, reflecting real estate sector struggles under high borrowing costs.
CVC’s Challenges: CVC faced tough choices in Q2 2025, navigating pressures in Brazil’s travel sector.
Americanas’ Recovery Efforts: Americanas grappled with big losses in Q2 2025, implementing restructuring plans in Brazil’s retail sector.
Simpar’s Pressures: Simpar faced tight margins in Q2 2025, reflecting challenges in Brazil’s logistics sector.
Grupo GPS’ Performance: Grupo GPS navigated Q2 2025 pressures, balancing costs in Brazil’s services sector.
Viveo’s Stability: Viveo reported stable Q2 2025 results, showing resilience in Brazil’s healthcare sector.
BTG Pactual’s Growth: BTG Pactual posted record Q2 2025 profits, expanding beyond Brazil’s borders in the financial sector.
São Martinho’s Setbacks: São Martinho faced growth challenges in Q2 2025, reflecting pressures in Brazil’s agribusiness sector.
Motiva’s Performance: Motiva reported stable Q2 2025 results, navigating tariff pressures in Brazil’s energy sector.
Banco ABC Brasil’s Challenges: Banco ABC Brasil faced setbacks in Q2 2025, reflecting difficulties in Brazil’s financial sector.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.02%
185,147.15
-0.02%
64,639.55
-0.35%
11,315.26
-1.14%
3,034,599
-0.48%
2,565.50
+0.82%
59,789.81
-0.28%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 185,147.15 | -0.02% | +21.85% | 185,188.13 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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