Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for April 28, 2025
Brazil’s markets are primed for a pivotal day as local and global economic data shape views on trade, investor confidence, and commodity demand. These are crucial for Brazil’s export-driven economy, facing high inflation and cautious optimism.
At 07:25 AM (BRT), the BCB Focus Market Readout will reveal market forecasts for inflation, GDP, and interest rates. With inflation exceeding the Central Bank’s 3% target and the Selic rate at 14.25%, this report will steer monetary policy expectations and the Brazilian real’s path.
Hawkish signals could cement high rates, while softer forecasts may support the currency. At 07:30 AM (BRT), the Current Account (USD) for March (previous: -8.76B) will highlight Brazil’s trade and investment flows.
A narrower deficit could lift the real, while a wider one may weigh on it. The Foreign Direct Investment (USD) for March (previous: 9.30B) will reflect long-term investor trust. Robust FDI could offset inflation concerns, but a decline may spark caution.
Globally, at 09:00 AM (EST) / 10:00 AM (BRT), ECB’s De Guindos Speaks, signaling Eurozone monetary policy. Dovish comments could boost demand for Brazilian exports like agricultural goods, while hawkish ones may tighten trade.
At 10:30 AM (EST) / 11:30 AM (BRT), the U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for April (previous: -16.3) will gauge industrial activity in a key market. A stronger reading could drive Brazil’s commodity exports, while a weaker one may temper optimism.
South Africa’s Freedom Day holiday may reduce emerging market liquidity, and Canada’s Federal Election at 08:00 AM (BRT) could introduce volatility, indirectly affecting Brazil’s trade outlook.
Economic Agenda for April 28, 2025
Brazil
- 07:25 AM – BCB Focus Market Readout: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Tracks market expectations, guiding policy and sentiment.
- 07:30 AM – Current Account (USD) (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous -8.76B. Measures trade flows, impacting currency stability.
- 07:30 AM – Foreign Direct Investment (USD) (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 9.30B. Signals investor confidence, vital for economic health.
South Africa
- All Day – Holiday: Freedom Day: Markets closed, potentially thinning emerging market liquidity.
Canada
- 08:00 AM – Canadian Federal Election: Outcomes may shift policy, affecting Brazil’s commodity demand.
Eurozone
- 09:00 AM (EST) – ECB’s De Guindos Speaks: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Guides Eurozone policy, impacting Brazil’s exports.
United States
- 10:30 AM (EST) – Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous -16.3. Reflects industrial demand, influencing Brazil’s commodity trade.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
On the previous trading day, the Ibovespa edged up 0.12% to 134,739 points, capping a 4% weekly gain and a 12% year-to-date rise. Export stocks like WEG, JBS, and BRF surged 2.1% to 4.4%, fueled by global demand, but Vale slid 2.4% after a 17% profit drop due to weak iron ore prices.
April’s IPCA-15 inflation rose 0.43%, with a 5.49% annual rate, reinforcing expectations of a sustained 14.25% Selic rate, pressuring borrowing.
The Brazilian real held steady against the USD, supported by commodity exports but limited by inflation concerns.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
On the previous trading day, U.S. stocks climbed, led by tech. The S&P 500 rose 0.7% or 40.44 points to 5,525.21, driven by Nvidia. The Nasdaq gained 1.3% or 216.90 points to 17,382.94, while the Dow inched up 0.1% or 20.10 points to 40,113.50.
The Russell 2000 was flat at 1,957.62. Trade war concerns weighed on over half of S&P 500 stocks, but weekly gains were strong: S&P 500 up 4.6%, Nasdaq up 6.7%, Dow up 2.5%.
Commodities
Oil Prices
Brent and WTI prices held steady, supported by geopolitical tensions and OPEC moves, aiding Petrobras and Brazil’s oil exports. Today’s U.S. Dallas Fed Index will signal industrial demand.
Gold Prices
Global uncertainties typically support gold, bolstering Brazil’s mining sector. Today’s ECB speech and Canadian election may drive safe-haven demand.
Silver Prices
Silver remained stable, driven by supply deficits and demand in solar and electronics, supporting Brazil’s mining exports. Today’s U.S. Dallas Fed Index will guide industrial demand.
Copper Prices
Copper faced a cautious outlook after a sharp drop due to demand uncertainty and trade tensions, pressuring Vale. Today’s ECB speech and U.S. Dallas Fed Index will clarify demand.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin stayed near $94,000, backed by institutional buying and ETF inflows, supporting Brazil’s fintech sector. Today’s Eurozone and U.S. data will influence sentiment.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s construction sector faced low confidence and rising costs due to high rates and inflation. Today’s BCB Focus Market Readout and Current Account data will signal economic stability.
Petrobras
Petrobras benefited from stable oil prices, driven by geopolitical and OPEC factors. Today’s U.S. Dallas Fed Index will shape energy demand outlooks.
Vale
Vale’s Q1 profit fell 17% due to iron ore price drops, with shares down 2.4%. Today’s ECB speech and U.S. Dallas Fed Index will guide commodity demand.
Raizen
Raizen posted heavy Q1 losses amid bioenergy sector struggles, denting sentiment. Today’s BCB Focus Market Readout will assess inflation’s cost impact.
Multiplan
Multiplan’s Q1 profit dipped due to expansion and share buybacks, but strategic moves show resilience. Today’s Current Account and FDI data will drive real estate confidence.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.93%
185,629.04
-0.93%
65,025.71
-0.06%
11,370.36
-0.39%
3,110,163
+1.11%
2,584.02
+0.57%
60,246.14
+0.76%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 185,629.04 | -0.93% | +21.85% | 187,366.84 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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