Brent and WTI Hold Gains Amid Mixed Supply and Demand Signals

Oil prices opened Monday, April 28, 2025, on a cautious note, reflecting a market still digesting a month of volatility and shifting fundamentals.

Data from Trading Economics and OPEC’s April market report show Brent crude trading near $67 per barrel and WTI close to $63, both rebounding from last week’s 1.6% declines.

These moves come as traders weigh OPEC+ supply plans, U.S.-China trade signals, and persistent geopolitical risks. Charts for both Brent and WTI reveal a market that sold off sharply at the start of April, then gradually recovered as technical support held.

Brent prices found a floor around $65, while WTI stabilized above $62. Bollinger Bands on hourly charts have narrowed, signaling lower volatility and a market waiting for new direction.

Both benchmarks now face resistance at $70 and $65 respectively, with volumes increasing as traders position ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on May 5. Market participants remain focused on OPEC+ supply discipline.

The group, which began unwinding its 2.2 million barrel per day voluntary cuts in April, has pledged a gradual and flexible approach. Eight core members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, plan to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day in May.

This supply return, however, remains subject to pause or reversal if market conditions deteriorate, providing a stabilizing buffer against sudden price swings.

Despite these increases, OPEC+ compliance reached 116% in March, as some members continued to overcomply with quotas. Saudi Arabia and its Gulf partners maintain significant spare capacity, estimated at around 4 million barrels per day.

This capacity acts as a ceiling on prices and a tool to counteract unexpected disruptions from countries like Libya or Nigeria. Demand signals remain mixed. The International Energy Agency projects a modest global supply surplus of 600,000 barrels per day for 2025.

Oil Market Balances Between Supply Risk

U.S. crude inventories are 3% above five-year averages, while European stocks sit 5% below, reflecting uneven recovery and logistical challenges.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects domestic production to reach 13.5 million barrels per day this year, reinforcing America’s role as a key swing producer.

Trade policy continues to inject uncertainty. While President Trump softened his rhetoric on China and Beijing exempted some U.S. imports from tariffs, formal negotiations remain elusive.

Market analysts note that any resolution could quickly boost industrial demand by up to 800,000 barrels per day. However, renewed tensions risk further demand destruction.

Geopolitical factors, including progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and Russia-Ukraine diplomacy, add further complexity. The prospect of increased Iranian exports and ongoing OPEC+ flexibility mean traders must remain alert to sudden shifts in supply.

Technical analysis suggests oil is range-bound, with Brent and WTI trading in well-defined bands. The Relative Strength Index for Brent sits at a neutral 54.

Open interest in futures contracts has grown 8% month-over-month, indicating rising trader engagement but no clear directional conviction. The story behind the numbers is one of a market in balance but lacking conviction.

OPEC+ discipline, ample spare capacity, and cautious trade optimism have prevented a deeper selloff. At the same time, persistent demand uncertainty and the risk of policy missteps keep a lid on rallies.

As April closes, the oil market stands at a crossroads, awaiting decisive signals from both producers and policymakers.

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