Technical Signals Point to Cautious Outlook for Copper After Sharp Drop

Copper markets entered April 28, 2025, under pressure, with prices drifting below $4.82 per pound on the COMEX and $9,364 per metric ton on the LME.

These figures, sourced from the latest official exchange data, reflect a market still reeling from the sharpest correction in recent copper history. The month began with copper near record highs, but by April 8, prices had dropped 20%, officially entering bear market territory.

The selloff erased over a year of gains in just days, as trading volumes surged and volatility spiked. The core story behind this downturn centers on trade policy and supply chain disruptions.

The United States’ announcement of potential tariffs on copper imports triggered a wave of physical deliveries, with an estimated 400,000 to 500,000 tons shipped ahead of possible restrictions.

This rush tightened global supply, as mining output struggled to keep up with demand from sectors like renewable energy and electric vehicles. LME copper inventories dropped from over 260,000 tons in February to just above 203,000 tons last week.

China, the world’s largest copper consumer, has maintained its 5% growth target but has refrained from immediate stimulus. Instead, Chinese authorities plan to assess the impact of global trade shocks before acting.

This cautious approach has left traders uncertain about the strength of future demand. Meanwhile, the US signaled some openness to easing tariffs, while Beijing exempted certain US goods from its own 125% levies.

Copper Market Volatility Deepens Amid Trade Uncertainty

The market remains on edge over whether copper will become a direct target in future trade barriers. ETF flows highlight the shifting sentiment. The United States Copper Index Fund is up 30% year-to-date, drawing $18.5 million in inflows in March.

Yet, the recent price collapse triggered heavy selling, with trading volumes on the LME reaching nearly triple their usual levels. Open interest in copper futures expanded by 18%, indicating new short positions as investors hedged against further declines.

Technical analysis from the attached chart shows copper trading above its 200-period moving average, but with narrowing Bollinger Bands and key support near $4.84 per pound. If prices break below this level, further selling could follow.

The market’s recent moves have been amplified by algorithmic trading, with the put/call ratio reaching the highest level since 2020, signaling extreme pessimism. Fundamentals remain mixed.

While supply constraints persist-Chile’s output fell 2.7% year-on-year and ore grades continue to deteriorate-exchange inventories remain well stocked for now.

The International Copper Study Group projects a surplus for 2025, though narrower than last year. Demand forecasts remain robust, with global GDP expected to grow 2.6% and refined copper demand by 2.9% this year.

The copper market’s current volatility reflects a tug-of-war between short-term trade risks and long-term supply challenges. Market participants continue to watch policy signals from Washington and Beijing, knowing that any shift could quickly change the outlook.

Until clarity emerges, traders and manufacturers will operate in a market defined by uncertainty, rapid moves, and a persistent sense of unease.

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