BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Sunday, 25 October, 10:06 p.m. ET · Source: Brazil’s electoral court (TSE) results feed; public statement by Flávio Bolsonaro
Key Facts
- What happened Flávio Bolsonaro, a conservative senator who lost Brazil’s runoff, says he will ask courts to annul the election.
- The count Electoral court (TSE) tally: President Lula 51.79%, Flávio 48.21%, a gap of 4,429,907 votes.
- His complaint Supreme Court justice Cristiano Zanin extended voting by two hours, which Flávio calls a rule change mid-game.
- Not known Whether a petition has been filed, and how the electoral court will respond.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
Live tonight
Brazil’s runoff, live
The official TSE count for Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, updated every minute (voting closed at 7 p.m. Brasília, 6 p.m. ET).
Brazil election 2026 · Brazil election polls · Who will win: Brazil election odds · Brazil runoff date and results start · Brazil election results · Brazil election poll data (CSV) · All election stories
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro – · Lula – (US$249 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 0.4% · Lula 99.6%
As of 25 October, 11:40 pm ET (03:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Brazil had a winner on Sunday night, and then the loser said no. At about 9:45 p.m. ET, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro said he cannot recognise the result of the Brazil election 2026 runoff and will ask courts to annul it.
Flávio Bolsonaro, a conservative senator for Rio de Janeiro and member of the Liberal Party (PL), lost to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by 51.79% to 48.21% of valid votes, which exclude blank and spoiled ballots. Every polling station is counted, but the electoral court has yet to declare the winner formally, as our live count showed.
What He Said on Sunday Night
Flávio spoke at about 9:45 p.m. ET (10:45 p.m. in Brasília), once the count was settled. “It is impossible to recognise the result of this election in the context in which these things happened,” he said.
“We will ask for the annulment of these elections,” he added. He also said he would not accept that the rules of the game were changed in the middle of the game.
“I will never know,” he said, how many votes he could have won in a state where voting machines were not reopened. That is the heart of his case, and it rests on a single decision by one judge.
Why Does He Blame a Supreme Court Justice?
The target is Cristiano Zanin, a justice of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Brazil’s highest court. On Sunday he ordered voting extended by two hours, to 7 p.m. in Brasília (6 p.m. ET), after complaints about getting to polling stations.
Polling stations that had already closed did not reopen, so only those still open took late votes. Flávio says Zanin, who does not sit on the electoral court, overrode the specialised electoral justice and favoured Lula. His own campaign had also asked the electoral court to extend voting in parts of São Paulo, Paraná and Santa Catarina states, citing problems getting to polling stations after rain.
Our explainer sets out what each side says about the extension. Read it alongside this story, because the claims and the facts do not always match.
How Big Was the Gap?
Lula won 64,255,891 votes against 59,825,984 for Flávio, a margin of 4,429,907. In share terms that is 3.58 percentage points of valid votes.
That is about twice the 2.1 million-vote gap of the 2022 runoff, when Lula beat then-president Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio’s father. The size of the gap is the main reason annulment would be a very large step.
What Happens Next
The electoral court must still declare Lula the winner formally. Under Brazil’s constitution the new presidential term begins on 1 January 2027.
Flávio’s team says it will go to court, but we have not seen a filing, and the electoral court has not commented. We will update this story when either happens, and our guide to what comes next covers the calendar.
What It Means for US Readers
The count itself is not in doubt, since Lula leads by more than 4.4 million votes. What matters for investors in Brazilian stocks, bonds and US-listed Brazil funds is whether the dispute fades quickly or drags on.
Brazilians have seen this scene before. In 2022, Jair Bolsonaro delayed accepting defeat, and the electoral court later rejected a request by his party, the PL, to void votes from older voting machines.
What Is Not Known
We do not know whether the annulment petition has been filed, or which legal grounds it will cite. We also do not know how the electoral court will answer, or when it will declare the result.
Vote figures come from the electoral court’s own results feed, updated at 9:45 p.m. ET, with the count complete. The court’s formal declaration is still to come.
Context: our brazil agribusiness guide.
More: Brazil news, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did Flávio Bolsonaro concede the Brazil runoff?
No. At about 9:45 p.m. ET on Sunday 25 October he said it is impossible to recognise the result and that he will ask courts to annul the election.
Who won Brazil’s runoff?
Lula leads 51.79% to 48.21% of valid votes with every polling station counted, according to the electoral court’s feed. The court has yet to declare the result formally.
Sources: TSE results feed (Superior Electoral Court), 25 October 2026; public statement by Flávio Bolsonaro, Brasília, 25 October 2026.
This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief