Brazil Poll Puts Flavio Bolsonaro Ahead of Lula for the First Time
BRAZIL · POLITICS
Key Facts
- —The headline In a second-round scenario, Flavio Bolsonaro takes 46 percent and Lula 45 percent.
- —Who ran it Nexus, commissioned by BTG Pactual, published on 8 September 2026.
- —The method Two thousand people interviewed nationwide between 4 and 7 September, margin of error two points.
- —The catch A one-point gap with a two-point margin of error is a tie, not a lead.
- —The other scenario Against writer Augusto Cury, Lula trails 43 to 45. Also a technical tie.
- —What changed In the same series on 31 August, Lula led Flavio 46 to 45. The direction has flipped.
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A Brazil poll has Flavio Bolsonaro one point ahead of Lula. The gap is inside the margin of error, and that is the point.
A new Brazil poll has Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula. It is the first time in this series that he leads.
The numbers are 46 percent to 45 in a second-round scenario. Nexus conducted the survey for BTG Pactual.
Two thousand people were interviewed nationwide between 4 and 7 September. The margin of error is two points.
That last figure does most of the work here. A one-point gap sits comfortably inside it.
What the Brazil Poll Actually Shows
Statistically, this is a tie. Neither candidate can be said to be ahead of the other.
What has changed is the direction of the noise. In the same series on 31 August, Lula led by the same single point.
On 3 August the figures were also 46 to 45, again with Lula in front. On 27 July Lula led 47 to 43.
So the series has narrowed over six weeks. The 8 September wave is the first where Flavio’s name is on the higher number.
The Second Scenario
The same poll tested Lula against Augusto Cury, a writer running for Avante. Cury takes 45 percent to Lula’s 43.
That is a two-point gap against a two-point margin. It is another technical tie.
Cury is not a conventional candidate. He is a psychiatrist and author with a very large book readership and no governing record.
A challenger polling level with a sitting president says more about the president than the challenger.
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One Claim Worth Narrowing
A figure has circulated putting Lula 8.9 points ahead of Flavio in a large state, attributed to AtlasIntel. We could not source it.
The AtlasIntel state runoff numbers we can source point in different directions. In São Paulo, Flavio leads Lula 46.8 to 43.3.
In Bahia, Lula leads 58.1 to 29. In Pernambuco the split is 59 to 35, again for Lula.
None of those is a 8.9-point Lula lead, and one of them has the opposite sign. Treat the figure as unverified.
How to Read Brazilian Polls
Brazilian second-round polls this far out are pressure gauges rather than forecasts. The first round has not happened.
A second-round pairing assumes two specific candidates survive it. That assumption is doing a lot of unspoken work.
The useful signal is the trend across waves from a single pollster. Comparing one house against another mostly measures method.
On that basis the trend is real even if the lead is not. Lula’s margin in this series has gone from four points to below zero in six weeks.
What to Watch
The first marker is the next Nexus wave. Two consecutive readings with Flavio in front would move this out of noise.
The second is first-round vote intention, which decides who reaches a runoff at all. Second-round pairings are hypothetical until then.
The third is whether other pollsters find the same crossover. One house showing a flip is a data point, and three make a shift.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the latest Brazil poll say?
A Nexus survey for BTG Pactual published on 8 September 2026 puts Flavio Bolsonaro on 46 percent and Lula on 45 in a second-round scenario, with a two-point margin of error.
Is Flavio Bolsonaro actually ahead?
Not in statistical terms. A one-point gap with a two-point margin of error is a technical tie. What is new is that his name is on the higher number for the first time in this series.
How was the poll conducted?
Nexus interviewed 2,000 people nationwide between 4 and 7 September 2026, with a margin of error of two points at 95 percent confidence.
Sources: GP1, SBT News, Poder360, UOL, Folha de S.Paulo, Reuters, Congresso em Foco, Rio Times.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief