Brazil elections 2022: União Brasil leads the race for governor in six states

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The most recent electoral polls show that União Brasil is currently the party with the most competitive candidates in the contests for state governments. The acronym resulting from the merger DEM+PSL has names in first place alone or tied within the margin of error in this position in six Federation units.

Poder360 compiled surveys from 20 states and the Federal District, those available so far and registered in the TSE (Superior Electoral Court), considering only surveys with known methodologies and from which it was possible to verify the origin of the information.

In the sequence of the ranking of competitive pre-candidates appears the PL, the party of President Jair Bolsonaro, with three names. The PT, PDT, MDB, and Republicans, each with two pre-candidates, come soon after.

The PT, with Fernando Haddad, leads in São Paulo – a Federation unit with more eligible voters (32.6 million). In 2018, the state elected João Doria of the PSDB. The former governor is a pre-candidate for president but is skating in the polls. In the last PowerData, he scored 4%.

If Haddad succeeds and is elected, the PT candidate can leverage the candidacy of Lula da Silva – who leads the national scenario – among São Paulo citizens.

In the second-largest electoral college in Brazil, Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (Novo) is first. The Minas Gerais politician seeks reelection. The former mayor of Belo Horizonte, Alexandre Kalil (PSD), is in second place.

The Poder360 survey considered the names tested in the simulated scenario with more pre-candidates. In the case of more than one simulation with the same number of names, the one listed as the main one by the research company was considered.

12 GOVERNORS AHEAD

In 11 states and the Federal District, governors seeking reelection are leading the electoral race. The chief executives of Pará, Helder Barbalho (MDB), and Paraná, Ratinho Jr., have more intentions than all the other candidates combined.

The tax collection of the Federation units hit a record in 2021 and was the highest since 1999. The increase of 21.1% was driven – mainly – by the ICMS tax. The full cashbooks should help leverage the governors in their reelection projects.

With information from Poder360