On Sunday 8 November 2026, Brazil’s team that chaired last year’s COP30 summit in Belém, a Brazilian Amazon city (the COP30 Presidency), published a non-prescriptive 78-page report on climate money. It came on the eve of the United Nations (UN) climate summit COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye.
The report says current policy yields about US$461 billion a year in outside climate finance for developing countries by 2035, against a goal of US$1.3 trillion. It says a US$1.27-1.41 trillion path exists, but it rests mainly on private money and on reforms that are only proposed.
Key Facts
- What. Brazil’s COP30 Presidency, the team that chaired last year’s UN summit in Belém, published a non-prescriptive report.
- Gap. Current policy brings about US$461 billion a year of outside finance by 2035, against US$1.3 trillion.
- Path. If all its measures are delivered, flows could reach US$1.27-1.41 trillion a year, mostly private money.
- Status. The report is a non-prescriptive contribution, not a negotiated deal, and gives no split by region.
- Next. COP31, the next UN climate summit, opens Monday 9 November 2026 in Antalya, Türkiye (Turkey).
In plain English
COP (Conference of the Parties) is the yearly UN climate summit, and climate finance is money sent to developing countries to cut emissions and cope with floods and drought. The COP30 Presidency is Brazil’s team that chaired the 2025 summit in Belém; “non-prescriptive” means it offers evidence and options, not rules.
The Gap Between US$461 Billion and US$1.3 Trillion
At the 2025 Belém summit, governments decided to urgently advance actions to scale up climate finance for developing countries to at least US$1.3 trillion a year by 2035, from all public and private sources. That goal sits in the main Belém decision, called the Global Mutirão (a Brazilian word for collective effort).
On current policy the report counts about US$461 billion a year by 2035, which leaves a gap of about US$840 billion. It says the goal “is achievable, but business as usual will not deliver it”.
Where the Money Would Come From
The report sorts the money into six areas and warns that they are not six equivalent pillars. It says they differ in scale and are linked, so they should not simply be added together.
Grants, concessional (below-market) and low-cost finance could rise from about US$155 billion today to as much as US$342 billion a year in the report’s high case, called the enhanced pathway. Private investment could rise from about US$94 billion today to as much as US$882 billion.
A smaller line is cooperation between developing countries, about US$3 billion a year today, which the report’s high case lifts to as much as US$39.5 billion. Special Drawing Rights, reserve assets issued by the International Monetary Fund, could add up to US$20 billion a year in that pathway.
New levies, for example on billionaires, financial transactions, aviation or fossil fuels, are another piece. The report says that raising at least US$68 billion in capital (US$90 billion in its high case) could fully account for the extra US$152 billion (US$185 billion) a year of public flows.
Why Private Money Is the Big Bet
Private investment is the biggest swing factor, rising from US$94 billion today to as much as US$882 billion a year in the high case. That compares with about US$229 billion on current policy, and US$740 billion of the high case is energy and US$142 billion nature and adaptation.
Official aid is shrinking at the same time, which in our reading makes the private bet larger. The OECD, a club of wealthy economies, put preliminary 2025 aid from its donor countries at US$174 billion, a fall of 23% in real terms from 2024.
The report points to eroding trust and cites “reduced engagement of some major contributors”, without naming a country. It does not say which donors it means.
The report says multilateral development banks, lenders owned by many governments such as the World Bank and the African Development Bank, have over US$650 billion of additional lending headroom. It adds that they could unlock a further US$300-500 billion through changes to how they use their balance sheets.
What It Means for Africa and Latin America
The report gives no split by region, so nobody can say how much would reach Africa or Latin America. The report also updates the Climate Finance Action Compass, a monitoring tool built with Climate Policy Initiative, a research group, that tracks the scale, speed, reach and impact of climate money.
Cabo Verde, an Atlantic island nation exposed to drought and storms, is not mentioned in the report. Our own reading is that small island states are among the countries this money is meant to reach, but the report makes no such promise.
What It Means for US Readers
In our reading, the private path is the part that touches US investors and banks, since it would need far more capital in clean power, nature and adaptation projects abroad. The report puts the energy share at about US$740 billion a year in developing countries outside China, but it names no investors or markets.
Development lenders matter too, because the World Bank Group has raised US$1.2 billion of hybrid capital, a funding type between debt and equity, from shareholders and private investors. The report’s baseline also assumes agreed rounds of donor money run their course, including IDA21, the World Bank’s fund for the poorest countries.
What Is Not Known
Several basics remain open, and the report calls itself a non-prescriptive contribution, not a negotiated deal. It does not commit any government to a figure.
- Which governments, banks or investors will act on the report’s measures is not stated.
- No split by region or country exists, so Africa’s and Latin America’s shares are unknown.
- The report does not say who pays for falling public aid, or name the donors expected to give more.
- The baseline uses constant 2025 prices (inflation removed), while parts of the pathway are in nominal terms (inflation included).
What Comes Next at COP31
COP31 opens Monday 9 November 2026 in Antalya and runs to 20 November, with Türkiye as host and Chris Bowen, Australia’s climate minister, leading the negotiations as President of Negotiations. The report says the second Global Stocktake starts there, the periodic review of progress under the 2015 Paris climate treaty.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Baku to Belém Roadmap to US$1.3 Trillion?
It is a roadmap presented in November 2025 by the presidencies of COP29, held in Baku, Azerbaijan, and COP30 to lift climate finance for developing countries to US$1.3 trillion a year by 2035. The 2026 report adds estimates of how much most sources could contribute.
Is the report a binding agreement?
No. The report is a non-prescriptive contribution from the COP30 Presidency, not a negotiated deal, and it does not commit any government.
How much would Africa or Latin America receive?
The report gives no split by region or country. It does not say how much would go to Africa or Latin America.
Connected Coverage: Our reports on how UN climate talks open Monday in Turkey and what to watch at the summit set the scene. Earlier, we covered how Brazil sold big climate finance at COP30 and why Lesotho asked the UN for climate money.
Sources: COP30 Presidency report “Implementing the Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T” (report page); the Presidency’s 2026 priorities page; the Global Mutirão decision of COP30; the Presidency’s press release of 8 November 2026; OECD preliminary aid data, April 2026. Read 9 November 2026.
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