Gombe Governor Says Boko Haram Weakened, Not Defeated

Boko Haram weakened but not defeated: that is the assessment from Gombe Governor Inuwa Yahaya, who says attacks continue and are delaying the return of displaced people across northern Nigeria.

Gombe Governor Inuwa Yahaya has warned that Boko Haram remains a serious threat despite years of military pressure. Speaking at the Northern States Governors’ Forum meeting in Maiduguri, Borno State, on 4 October 2026, he said the group is weakened but not defeated.

A blunt warning from Maiduguri

Governor Yahaya, who chairs the Northern States Governors’ Forum, delivered his assessment at the forum’s 13th meeting. He said attacks continued and that banditry and communal conflict were compounding insecurity.

The governor said these overlapping threats were delaying the return of displaced people. His remarks came in Maiduguri, the capital of Borno State, which has been the epicentre of the insurgency for more than a decade.

The warning is consistent with evidence of a fragmented but resilient insurgency. Two distinct factions remain active: Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad, commonly called Boko Haram, and Islamic State West Africa Province, known as ISWAP.

The money behind Boko Haram weakened

The conflict has a substantial financial dimension that is often overlooked. SBM Intelligence recorded 7,825 kidnappings across Nigeria between July 2025 and June 2026.

At least 7.78 billion naira was paid in ransom during that period. The research firm attributed more than 90 percent of the proceeds, about 7 billion naira, to JAS (Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad), which is one faction of Boko Haram, in eight incidents.

SBM Intelligence also noted that ransom payments had more than tripled from a year earlier. This suggests the group is using kidnapping as a major revenue source to fund its operations.

A resurgence documented by Human Rights Watch

Human Rights Watch reported a Boko Haram resurgence in 2025. The group killed at least 57 people and caused the disappearance of about 70 in Borno’s Kukawa area in May.

A September attack in Bama reportedly killed at least 60 people, including soldiers. Human Rights Watch said insecurity remained widespread in 2025 and documented abuses, including lethal military airstrikes.

The rights group’s findings challenge any narrative that the insurgency is winding down. Instead, they point to a conflict that is mutating rather than ending.

The regional and international stakes

The insurgency spans the Lake Chad basin, requiring cooperation among Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon. ISWAP’s Islamic State affiliation gives the conflict a transnational jihadist dimension.

Nigeria’s military campaign therefore competes with governance failures, displacement, poverty and rival armed economies. These factors create fertile ground for recruitment and make a purely military solution unlikely.

For investors and professionals watching the region, the security picture matters beyond humanitarian concerns. Northern Nigeria’s instability affects trade routes, agricultural output and cross-border commerce across the Sahel.

What to watch next

The Northern States Governors’ Forum has not announced specific new measures following the Maiduguri meeting. However, the governor’s public warning suggests pressure is building for a more coordinated regional response.

The financial data from SBM Intelligence will likely sharpen scrutiny of ransom payments. Tracking how money flows to armed groups could become a focus for security agencies and international partners.

The broader contest for influence in the Sahel and Lake Chad basin connects directly to the shifting geopolitics covered in Africa: The New Scramble. Nigeria’s ability to contain the insurgency will shape its standing as a regional power.

Why the distinction matters

Governor Yahaya’s choice of words is significant. Saying Boko Haram is weakened acknowledges military progress, but saying it is not defeated rejects any premature declaration of victory.

That distinction carries weight for displaced communities waiting to return home. It also signals to federal authorities and international partners that northern governors see the job as unfinished.

The coming months will test whether the warning translates into new resources or strategy. For now, the evidence from Human Rights Watch and SBM Intelligence supports the governor’s caution.

Related reading: Cameroon Neighbours Explained, Central Africa in 2026; Eritrea Explained 2026, a Red Sea Country Guide; DR Congo Neighbours Explained, Central Africa in 2026; more from Africa.

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