Argentina’s MERVAL Slides as Technical Weakness Deepens and Peers Outperform

Argentina’s S&P MERVAL Index closed at 2,050,983.25 on June 18, 2025, down 1.04% for the day, according to official exchange data and TradingView charts.

The index has now lost over 6% since the start of the month and stands nearly 29% below its January peak. This persistent downward pressure leaves the MERVAL trailing major regional peers, with Brazil and Mexico showing more resilience in recent weeks.

Technical indicators confirm the market’s fragile state. The daily chart shows the MERVAL well below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a clear sign of sustained bearish momentum.

The index also sits at the lower edge of the Ichimoku cloud and below the lower Bollinger Band, indicating oversold conditions but no strong buying interest.

The MACD histogram remains negative, with the signal line trending lower, and the RSI reads 36.88 on the 4-hour chart and 43.34 on the daily, both below the neutral 50 level. These readings suggest momentum is weak and sellers continue to dominate.

Volume analysis does not show any meaningful surge, which would typically signal a reversal or capitulation. Instead, trading activity remains steady, pointing to a lack of institutional conviction for a rebound.

Support levels now rest near 2,020,454, while resistance stands at 2,133,813 and 2,179,034. Only a sustained move above these levels would indicate a shift in sentiment.

Winners in the last 24 hours are scarce. Grimoldi led with a 9.93% gain, followed by Cresud at 3.98%, Holdsat at 1.67%, Grupo Clarin at 1.25%, and Importadora y Exportadora de la Patagonia at 0.36%.

These gains appear driven by company-specific factors rather than broad market strength. On the losing side, financials and utilities bore the brunt.

Grupo Supervielle dropped 5.53%, Trans Gas Sur fell 4.56%, BBVA Banco Frances lost 4.53%, Comercial del Plata declined over 4%, and Edenor also slid more than 4%. Sector rotation and profit-taking, particularly in rate-sensitive names, explain much of this weakness.

ETF flows remain subdued. The Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) edged up 0.31% to $86.17 but faces resistance at $86.88 and $89.12.

Despite an 11.99% gain for 2025, technical signals for ARGT remain mixed, with negative MACD and moving average readings offsetting short-term optimism.

The story behind these numbers is a market caught between reform hopes and deep-rooted risks. President Milei’s government has delivered a fiscal surplus and sharply lower inflation, but high debt and investor skepticism persist.

The MERVAL’s underperformance against Brazil’s Bovespa and Chile’s IPSA highlights how local risks continue to overshadow global trends. Until technicals stabilize and volumes confirm renewed interest, the path forward for Argentine equities remains uncertain.