Argentina Stocks Fall 1.30% as Banks Slip | Argentina Market Report, Oct 28
Key Facts
- Argentina’s main stock index, the Merval, fell 1.30% to 95,438.89 on Wednesday, the third lower close this week.
- Country risk, the extra yield investors demand on Argentine dollar bonds, stood at 763 basis points, near its highest level of the year.
- Banks led the losses in New York: Grupo Galicia −3.7%, Supervielle −4.2% and BBVA Argentina −3.1%, all large private lenders, while YPF, the state-controlled oil company, gained 1.8%.
- The official peso stayed at ARS 1,560 per US dollar at Banco Nación unchanged on the day.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket, a prediction market, puts 75.6% on Argentine annual inflation for 2026 landing between 30.0% and 34.9%, as of 28 October 2026, 8:47 pm ET.
Today’s Focus
Argentine investors started the week worried about Brazil, and on Wednesday the worry spread to their banks. The Merval, the index of Buenos Aires’s most traded companies, fell 1.30% to 95,438.89 points.
Argentine bank shares listed in New York dropped 3% to 4%, and the country-risk gauge, which tracks how nervous bond investors are, stood at 763 basis points, near its yearly high. The dollar, however, stayed calm: the official rate at Banco Nación ended unchanged at ARS 1,560.
Oil producers YPF and Vista went the other way, gaining 1.8% and 1.0% in New York as crude prices rose.
What matters today. For a country that depends on foreign credit, a higher risk gauge raises borrowing costs and makes it harder to keep rebuilding reserves.
01 The session in one read
The Merval closed at 95,438.89 on Wednesday 28 October, down 1.30% from 96,681 on Tuesday. It was the third lower close in a row.
Banks led the decline. In New York, Grupo Galicia lost 3.7%, Supervielle 4.2%, BBVA Argentina 3.1% and Banco Macro 2.5%, while Telecom Argentina dropped 4.0%.
Argentina’s dollar bonds also fell, and country risk stood at 763 basis points, near its highest level of the year.
The sell-off coincided with Brazil’s: the Brazil ETF EWZ fell 1.98%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 5.02%, both of which can weigh on emerging-market credit.
What has not changed is the exchange-rate picture, which stayed calm. The variable to watch is country risk: another rise toward 800 basis points would raise the cost of financing the state.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merval | 95,438.89 | −1.30% | Below Tuesday’s 96,681 |
| Official dollar (Banco Nación) | ARS 1,560 | unchanged | Unchanged on the day |
| Wholesale dollar | ARS 1,556.90 | — | Reference for trade |
| MEP dollar | ARS 1,571.98 | — | Market-based rate |
| Country risk | 763 bps | — | Near the year’s high |
The Merval’s loss was smaller than Brazil’s 2.68%. The index traded between 94,795 and 97,074 during the session.
The central bank did not buy dollars for a third straight day. The blue dollar, the informal market rate, slipped about 0.7% to ARS 1,565 for sale. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Argentina — Live Market Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
MERVAL
2,848,945
—
+12.65%
2,859,051
—
—
—
USD/ARS
1,537
-0.28%
+3.77%
1,541
1,541
1,537
—
YPF
8,140
-1.45%
+67.04%
8,260
8,400
8,130
1,057,856
GGAL
5,825
-2.27%
-17.84%
5,960
6,090
5,820
1,091,278
PAMPA
5,035
-2.04%
+11.33%
5,140
5,225
5,025
226,261
TXAR
761.00
-3.00%
+29.77%
784.50
798.50
757.00
1,172,882
ALUAR
855.00
-1.50%
+5.30%
868.00
910.00
854.00
265,896
TGS
8,400
-4.00%
-6.25%
8,750
8,920
8,400
71,435
CEPU
1,920
-1.39%
-1.35%
1,947
1,999
1,909
165,948
MIRGOR
1,775
-0.56%
-90.15%
1,785
1,805
1,735
6,214
COME
35.15
-1.90%
-14.82%
35.83
35.90
35.01
2,274,189
LOMA NEGRA
3,085
-2.14%
+2.32%
3,153
3,200
3,085
110,621
BYMA
237.00
-1.46%
+5.80%
240.50
246.00
236.50
687,747
TELECOM ARG
3,870
-3.31%
+22.00%
4,003
4,108
3,870
11,330
GLOBANT
42.42
-5.73%
-31.91%
45.00
45.00
42.35
257,828
MERCADOLIBRE
1,700
+1.89%
-26.07%
1,669
1,728
1,672
504,596
03 Why it moved: Brazil and US yields
The fall coincided with Brazil’s sell-off, and Brazil is Argentina’s biggest trading partner. On Wednesday the Ibovespa lost 2.68% and the Brazil ETF EWZ fell 1.98%.
US yields also matter. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.02% on the day the US Federal Reserve held rates at 3¾% to 4%, with two voters preferring a hike.
Banks fell hardest in New York. We could not confirm a bank-specific trigger.
One supportive note was the Treasury’s debt auction, which rolled over its maturing debt.
04 The day’s movers
| Driver | Level / Move | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supervielle (SUPV) | Bank | −4.2% | Weakest bank ADR |
| Telecom Argentina (TEO) | Telecom group | −4.0% | Telecom sell-off |
| Grupo Galicia (GGAL) | Largest private bank | −3.7% | Bank sell-off |
| BBVA Argentina (BBAR) | Bank | −3.1% | Bank sell-off |
| Banco Macro (BMA) | Bank | −2.5% | Bank sell-off |
| Vista Energy (VIST) | Oil and gas producer | +1.0% | Vaca Muerta producer |
| YPF (YPF) | State-controlled oil firm | +1.8% | Oil rally |
These moves are for the New York-listed receipts (ADRs) of Argentine companies, which trade in US dollars and are the main way American investors own Argentine stocks. They fell more sharply than the local Merval.
YPF and Vista, both tied to the Vaca Muerta shale field, rose as crude oil prices climbed. The US Oil Fund, a WTI proxy, gained 1.64%.
05 The regional scoreboard
| Index | Country | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Merval | Argentina | −1.30% |
| Ibovespa | Brazil | −2.68% |
| IPC | Mexico | −0.76% |
| IPSA | Chile | −0.82% |
| COLCAP | Colombia | −0.03% |
Argentina’s loss ranked second-worst in Latin America after Brazil. Mexico and Chile lost less than 1%, and Colombia was flat.
The Merval has now closed lower on three straight sessions.
06 The technical picture
The Merval’s close of 95,438.89 is just above the session low of 94,795, so sellers kept the upper hand through the day. A move back above 97,000 would be the first sign of recovery.
Country risk at 763 basis points is the other line to watch. A sustained move under 700 would signal that investors are regaining confidence.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a prediction market, traders put the chance that Argentina’s annual inflation for 2026 lands between 30.0% and 34.9% at 75.6%. They see a 16.5% chance of 25.0% to 29.9% and 2.5% for 35.0% to 39.9%. About US$88,000 has been traded on this market, as of 28 October 2026, 8:47 pm ET.
Prices on prediction markets are bets, not polls or forecasts by officials.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
07 What to watch
- Country risk: A move back below 700 basis points would signal calmer credit markets.
- Brazil’s market: Argentina’s banks and exporters follow the Ibovespa and the real.
- US yields: A 10-year Treasury yield above 5% keeps pressure on Argentine bonds.
- The central bank: Whether it resumes dollar purchases after a pause in intervention.
Background: Argentina Stocks Fall 2.6% on Brazil Risk.
Background: Argentina Stocks Fall 3.0% as Peso Slides.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did the Merval fall on Wednesday?
It fell 1.30% as bank shares dropped and country risk stood at 763 basis points, while Brazil’s market slumped 2.68%.
What is the Merval?
It is Argentina’s main stock index, tracking the most liquid companies listed in Buenos Aires.
What is country risk?
It is the extra yield investors demand to hold Argentine dollar bonds instead of US Treasuries, measured in basis points.
Did the Argentine peso weaken?
The official rate at Banco Nación was unchanged at ARS 1,560 per dollar, while the blue dollar slipped about 0.7% to 1,565.
Market data: RT; exchange figures from BYMA
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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