Argentina Stocks Fall 2.6% on Brazil Risk | Argentina Market Report, Oct 27
Key Facts
- The Merval, Argentina’s main stock index, fell 2.6% to 96,681 points, extending Monday’s near-3% drop.
- Banks and energy shares fell: Grupo Galicia lost 2.1%, YPF, the state-controlled oil producer, 2.8%, and gas pipeline firm TGS 3.9%.
- Country risk eased to 753 basis points (7.53 percentage points of extra yield over US bonds) from Monday’s 765, the year’s high.
- The peso edged 0.16% firmer to 1,538 per US dollar in the official wholesale market.
- Brazil’s election result is still the trigger, because Brazil is a main trading partner for Argentina.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket, a prediction market, gives President Javier Milei 46.5% to win Argentina’s next presidential election, as of 27 October 2026, 9:00 pm ET.
Today’s Focus
Buenos Aires shares fell again on Tuesday even as bond prices recovered a little. The Merval, Argentina’s main stock index, lost 2.6% to close at 96,681 points, after dropping almost 3% on Monday.
Grupo Galicia, a large private bank, fell 2.1%, and Banco Macro lost 1.0%. Energy names also fell, with YPF down 2.8% and TGS down 3.9%.
The peso strengthened marginally to 1,538 per dollar, a 0.16% gain. Country risk, a measure of the extra yield investors demand on Argentine debt, eased to 753 basis points from 765.
For foreign investors, Tuesday showed that Argentine assets still react strongly to Brazil’s politics. Brazil took about 12.8% of Argentine exports between January and August.
What matters today. Argentine stocks remain sensitive to shocks from Brazil, even on a day when bonds steadied.
01 The session in one read
Argentina’s stock market had a second weak day after Brazil’s election. The Merval, the benchmark index of Buenos Aires-listed shares, lost 2.6% to end at 96,681 points.
Banks and energy companies led the fall. Grupo Galicia dropped 2.1%, Banco Macro gave up 1.0%, YPF declined 2.8% and TGS slid 3.9%.
The peso held steady. It firmed 0.16% to 1,538 per US dollar in the official wholesale market.
Behind the cautious tone sits Brazil’s election result, which pushed country risk to 765 basis points on Monday. On Tuesday it eased to 753 basis points, as sovereign bonds recovered about 1% on average.
The evidence points to a market still digesting a regional shock rather than a local one. Bonds recovered on Tuesday, but shares did not, and that gap is worth watching.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merval (Argentina) | 96,681 | −2.6% | Second fall in a row after Brazil’s election |
| USD/ARS (peso) | 1,538 | −0.16% | Peso firmed slightly against the dollar |
| Country risk | 753 bps | −12 | Down from 765 on Monday, the year’s high |
| YPF (YPFD) | ARS 8,030 | −2.8% | State-controlled oil producer |
| Globant (US-listed) | — | −4.7% | Software services firm |
The Merval fell 2.6% on Tuesday after losing almost 3% on Monday, a two-day slide that took the index to 96,681 points.
The peso’s 0.16% gain placed it at 1,538 per dollar. Country risk at 753 basis points compares with 765 on Monday. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Argentina — Live Market Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
MERVAL
2,848,945
—
+12.65%
2,859,051
—
—
—
USD/ARS
1,537
-0.28%
+3.77%
1,541
1,541
1,537
—
YPF
8,140
-1.45%
+67.04%
8,260
8,400
8,130
1,057,856
GGAL
5,825
-2.27%
-17.84%
5,960
6,090
5,820
1,091,278
PAMPA
5,035
-2.04%
+11.33%
5,140
5,225
5,025
226,261
TXAR
761.00
-3.00%
+29.77%
784.50
798.50
757.00
1,172,882
ALUAR
855.00
-1.50%
+5.30%
868.00
910.00
854.00
265,896
TGS
8,400
-4.00%
-6.25%
8,750
8,920
8,400
71,435
CEPU
1,920
-1.39%
-1.35%
1,947
1,999
1,909
165,948
MIRGOR
1,775
-0.56%
-90.15%
1,785
1,805
1,735
6,214
COME
35.15
-1.90%
-14.82%
35.83
35.90
35.01
2,274,189
LOMA NEGRA
3,085
-2.14%
+2.32%
3,153
3,200
3,085
110,621
BYMA
237.00
-1.46%
+5.80%
240.50
246.00
236.50
687,747
TELECOM ARG
3,870
-3.31%
+22.00%
4,003
4,108
3,870
11,330
GLOBANT
42.42
-5.73%
-31.91%
45.00
45.00
42.35
257,828
MERCADOLIBRE
1,700
+1.89%
-26.07%
1,669
1,728
1,672
504,596
03 Why it moved — Brazil election shock, local financing costs
The trigger for Tuesday’s weakness came from Brazil, where Lula’s re-election weakened the real on Monday and made investors reassess Latin American exposure.
Argentine banks and energy firms are the shares foreign funds trade most as a proxy for Argentina, so they fell most.
Argentina’s state-controlled oil company YPF and the gas pipeline operator TGS were among the weakest large names.
Bonds recovered on Tuesday: Argentine sovereign dollar bonds rose about 1% on average. In New York, ADRs, which are US-listed shares of Argentine companies, mostly recovered.
04 The day’s movers
| Driver | Level / Move | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ternium Argentina (TXAR) | ARS 747 | −4.8% | Steelmaker, weakest of the group |
| Grupo Galicia (GGAL) | ARS 5,835 | −2.1% | Large private bank |
| YPF (YPFD) | ARS 8,030 | −2.8% | State-controlled oil producer |
| TGS (TGSU2) | ARS 8,405 | −3.9% | Gas pipeline operator |
| Banco Macro (BMA) | ARS 10,230 | −1.0% | Bank |
| Pampa Energía (PAMP) | ARS 4,998 | −2.8% | Power and gas producer |
| Central Puerto (CEPU) | ARS 1,894 | −2.7% | Power producer |
Every large local name in the table fell. Ternium Argentina, a steelmaker, slumped 4.8% while TGS fell 3.9%.
In New York, Argentine ADRs, which are US-listed shares of Argentine companies, mostly rebounded, though Globant, a software firm, fell about 4.7%.
05 The regional scoreboard
| Index | Country | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Merval | Argentina | −2.6% |
| Ibovespa | Brazil | −0.51% |
| IPC | Mexico | +0.35% |
| IPSA | Chile | +1.81% |
| COLCAP | Colombia | +0.06% |
Brazil’s Ibovespa fell 0.51% as investors digested the election result. Chile’s IPSA bucked the trend with a 1.81% gain.
Argentina’s Merval was the weakest of the five main Latin American markets on Tuesday.
06 The technical picture
The Merval closed at 96,681 points, after Monday’s close of about 99,200. The 100,000 mark is now about 3.4% above the index.
The peso’s technical position is stable. At 1,538 per dollar it is only 0.2% from its 52-week low of 1,541.
For the Merval, the 100,000 mark is the level to watch. A close back above it would signal renewed confidence.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a prediction market, traders put the chance that Javier Milei, Argentina’s president, wins the next presidential election at 46.5%, ahead of Axel Kicillof, the governor of Buenos Aires province, at 29.5%. About US$1.1 million has been traded on this market, as of 27 October 2026, 9:00 pm ET.
Prices on prediction markets are bets, not polls or forecasts by officials.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
07 What to watch
- Brazil’s real: If the real steadies, Argentine bank and energy shares may bounce as regional risk fades.
- Country risk: A fall further below 750 basis points would support buying of Argentine bonds and shares.
- US Federal Reserve: The Fed’s decision on Wednesday could move emerging-market assets.
- Peso near 1,541: A break above its 52-week low would raise pressure on local assets.
Background: Argentina Stocks Fall 3.0% as Peso Slides.
Background: Argentina’s YPF Stock Beats 23.6% Inflation.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Merval?
It is Argentina’s main stock index, tracking the largest and most liquid shares listed on the Buenos Aires exchange.
Why did Argentine banks fall?
Banks and energy firms are the most direct plays on Argentina for foreign investors, so they fell hardest when Brazil’s election result raised regional risk.
What is country risk?
It is a measure of the extra yield investors demand to hold a country’s bonds versus US Treasuries. At 753 basis points, Argentina is seen as a high-risk borrower.
How did the peso perform?
The peso strengthened 0.16% to 1,538 per dollar in the official wholesale market, close to its weakest level of the past year.
Market data: RT; exchange figures from BYMA
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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