Argentina Stocks Fall 3.0% as Peso Slides | Argentina Market Report, Oct 26
Key Facts
- Argentina’s Merval stock index fell 3.0% to 99,227 points, as banks led the retreat.
- The wholesale peso weakened 0.75% to ARS1,541 per US dollar (about US$0.00065 per peso), a record low for the currency.
- In New York, Argentine ADRs (US-listed share certificates) fell sharply: Mercado Libre lost 7.81%, Banco Macro 6.30% and Grupo Galicia 6.75%.
- Argentina’s country-risk gauge rose above 760 points, the extra yield investors demand over US Treasuries.
- Brazil’s Ibovespa fell 13.88% after President Lula’s re-election, and the US-listed Brazil ETF EWZ lost 19.82%.
- Prediction markets: Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market, puts Milei at 50.0% to win Argentina’s next presidential election, as of 26 October, 8:48 pm ET.
Today’s Focus
Argentina’s stock market fell sharply on Monday as the sell-off in Brazil spread across Latin American assets. The Merval, Argentina’s main share index, closed down 3.0% at 99,227 points.
The peso also weakened, to ARS1,541 per US dollar on the wholesale market (up 0.75%). Argentina’s country-risk gauge, which measures the extra yield investors demand to hold Argentine bonds, rose above 760 points.
The pain was sharper in New York, where Argentine companies’ American depositary receipts (ADRs, shares listed in the US) fell harder. Mercado Libre, the e-commerce group, dropped 7.81%, and Grupo Supervielle, a bank, lost 9.43%.
What matters today. A Brazilian political shock cooled enthusiasm for Argentine assets, even without a domestic catalyst, and US investors in Argentine ADRs felt it most.
01 The session in one read
Argentina’s stock market slid on Monday as the shock from Brazil’s election rippled through Latin American trading desks. The Merval closed down 3.0% at 99,227 points, after sliding by more than 6% at one point.
The peso made an unwelcome move too. The wholesale rate ended at ARS1,541 per US dollar, a 0.75% decline and a record low for the currency.
The pressure was most visible among banks. Grupo Galicia and Banco Macro, two large lenders, both fell by about 5% in Buenos Aires.
The trigger came from outside Argentina. Brazil’s election result set off a sharp sell-off in Brazilian assets, and investors demanded more compensation for holding risk anywhere in the region.
The evidence points to a classic risk-off move triggered by Brazil’s election outcome, not by fresh Argentine economic news. The falls in New York-listed Argentine shares and the jump in the country-risk gauge both fit that pattern. The variable to watch is whether the country-risk gauge stabilises in the next session or keeps climbing alongside the dollar.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merval (Argentina stocks) | 99,227 | −3.0% | Risk-off after Brazil shock |
| USD/ARS (wholesale peso) | 1,541 | +0.75% | Record low for the peso |
| ARGT (US-listed Argentina ETF) | US$82.77 | −4.95% | US investors sell Argentine shares |
| S&P 500 (US stocks) | 7,677 | +0.70% | Calmer backdrop abroad |
| USD/BRL (Brazilian real) | 5.4154 | +8.79% | Real plunges, spreads to Argentina |
The Merval’s decline was modest compared with the chaos in Brazil, but the direction was clear. While US shares rose, Argentina’s local market could not escape the regional gloom.
The peso’s record close is a reminder of the slow pressure on the currency. Retail dollar quotes in Argentina were higher still, around ARS1,560, because they carry a spread over the wholesale rate. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Argentina — Live Market Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
MERVAL
3,017,221
—
+30.51%
3,022,485
3,042,365
2,991,150
—
USD/ARS
1,493
+0.10%
+12.96%
1,491
1,494
1,480
—
YPF
7,810
+0.26%
+72.84%
7,790
7,850
7,600
1,763,858
GGAL
6,980
-0.78%
+1.82%
7,035
7,115
6,920
1,564,062
PAMPA
5,115
+0.69%
+26.70%
5,080
5,140
5,000
721,190
TXAR
747.50
-2.35%
+18.67%
765.50
770.00
742.50
771,892
ALUAR
938.00
-1.21%
+29.83%
949.50
951.00
932.50
135,426
TGS
8,870
-0.17%
+15.05%
8,885
9,075
8,720
143,546
CEPU
2,156
+1.84%
+28.36%
2,117
2,165
2,086
404,146
MIRGOR
1,650
-1.20%
-92.90%
1,670
1,670
1,635
20,877
COME
40.93
-0.73%
-30.47%
41.23
41.60
40.50
4,258,884
LOMA NEGRA
3,130
+0.08%
+5.80%
3,128
3,205
3,090
182,992
BYMA
275.00
-1.70%
+35.14%
279.75
282.50
272.00
1,409,575
TELECOM ARG
4,233
-0.70%
+55.19%
4,263
4,335
4,160
31,896
GLOBANT
38.10
-2.26%
-49.65%
38.98
38.70
36.77
793,552
MERCADOLIBRE
1,870
-3.59%
-20.71%
1,940
1,927
1,870
329,640
03 Why it moved — Brazil’s election shock hits regional risk
The session’s main driver was the sell-off in Brazilian markets after Lula’s re-election. When Brazil’s real dropped sharply, investors across Latin America pulled back from local stocks and bonds.
Argentina felt the pressure through financial shares, which are most sensitive to changes in regional confidence. In New York, the Brazil ETF EWZ fell 19.82%, while the Argentina ETF ARGT lost 4.95%.
The drop mainly reflects the Brazilian real’s collapse, not a change in Argentine fundamentals. Still, it set a nervous tone.
Argentine lenders are especially vulnerable when the peso weakens, so Grupo Galicia and Banco Macro sold off.
04 The day’s movers
| Driver | Level / Move | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supervielle (SUPV) | US$7.01 | −9.43% | Bank; steepest ADR fall on the board |
| Mercado Libre (MELI) | US$1,668.72 | −7.81% | E-commerce group with big Brazil business |
| BBVA Argentina (BBAR) | US$12.12 | −7.97% | Bank |
| Telecom Argentina (TEO) | US$11.94 | −7.44% | Telecom operator |
| Grupo Galicia (GGAL) | US$35.35 | −6.75% | Bank, large lender |
| Banco Macro (BMA) | US$61.88 | −6.30% | Bank |
| YPF | US$49.24 | −2.84% | State-controlled oil company |
These are the prices of Argentine companies’ shares listed in New York (ADRs), which carry the clearest market signal for US investors.
Banks and telecoms fell most. YPF, the state-controlled oil company, fell only 2.84%, helped by oil prices that stayed high.
The selling was broad, not selective: every Argentine ADR we checked closed lower.
05 The regional scoreboard
| Index | Country | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | Brazil | −13.88% |
| Merval | Argentina | −3.0% |
| COLCAP | Colombia | −1.38% |
| IPSA | Chile | −1.59% |
| IPC | Mexico | −0.58% |
Brazil’s Ibovespa, the country’s main stock index, fell 13.88%. That was the anchor dragging the rest of Latin America lower.
Colombia and Chile also fell, while Mexico slipped only slightly. Argentina’s Merval was second-worst in the region, down 3.0%.
06 The technical picture
The Merval’s 3.0% fall to 99,227 points erased the previous session’s level of 102,278. The index slid by more than 6% at one point before buyers cut the loss. Since 19 October the index is run by MSCI, so its levels differ from older series.
The peso is at its weakest official level on record, which raises the cost of imports and adds inflation pressure for local companies.
The next question is whether the Merval can hold above Monday’s close. Without a stabilisation in Brazil, further tests to the downside are possible.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the United States by the CFTC (the US derivatives regulator), traders give President Javier Milei a 50.0% chance of winning Argentina’s next presidential election. Axel Kicillof, governor of Buenos Aires province, stands at 30.0%. The market has seen 51,381 contracts traded, as of 26 October 2026, 8:48 pm ET.
Prices on prediction markets are bets, not polls or forecasts by officials.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
07 What to watch
- Brazil’s market reaction: Watch whether the Brazilian real and Ibovespa stabilise, which could ease pressure on Argentine assets.
- Country risk measure: The gauge stood above 760 points; a further rise could push local stocks and dollar bonds lower again.
- Peso: Whether the wholesale rate keeps setting records after ARS1,541.
- US Federal Reserve: The upcoming Fed decision could shift global rate expectations and hit Latin American risk appetite.
Background: Argentina’s YPF Stock Beats 23.6% Inflation.
Background: Argentina Stocks Jump 4.4% as Banks Rally.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Argentine stocks fall on Monday?
The Merval fell 3.0% because of the sell-off in Brazil after its election result, which made investors cautious about all Latin American assets.
What happened to the peso?
The wholesale exchange rate weakened 0.75% to ARS1,541 per US dollar, a record low for the currency.
Which Argentine shares fell the most in New York?
Supervielle fell 9.43%, BBVA Argentina 7.97%, Mercado Libre 7.81% and Telecom Argentina 7.44%.
Was the whole region down?
Yes. Brazil’s Ibovespa fell 13.88%, the Merval 3.0%, Chile’s IPSA 1.59%, Colombia’s COLCAP 1.38% and Mexico’s IPC 0.58%.
Market data: RT; exchange figures from the Buenos Aires stock exchange (BYMA)
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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