Argentina Stocks Fall 1.5% as Risk Rises | Argentina Market Report, Oct 22
Key Facts
- Argentina’s Merval fell 1.5% to 97,993 points on Thursday as global shares sold off.
- Country risk rose above 700 basis points, up about 4%, meaning investors demand a bigger premium to hold Argentine debt.
- The official peso weakened 0.11% to 1,527.5 per US dollar on RT data; Banco Nación sold dollars at 1,550 pesos.
- Argentine shares in New York fell: YPF lost 2.38%, Banco Macro 2.15%, Grupo Galicia 1.9% and Telecom Argentina 2.91%.
- The Nasdaq fell about 2.6% and the S&P 500 1.21%, dragging emerging-market assets lower.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gives Javier Milei 47.5% to win the next presidential election, Kalshi 53% (US$1.08 million traded on Polymarket, read 8:30 pm ET, 22 October). Bets, not polls.
Today’s Focus
Argentina’s stock market fell on Thursday as a global sell-off in technology shares met rising country risk at home. The MSCI-based Merval index closed down 1.5% at 97,993 points.
The risk premium on Argentine debt, called country risk, rose above 700 basis points, up about 4% on the day. The peso weakened 0.11% to 1,527.5 per US dollar on RT data.
Argentine companies listed in New York, known as ADRs, mostly fell: the ARGT fund that tracks them lost 1.91%.
What matters today. Rising country risk and falling ADRs show that Argentine assets still trade with global risk appetite, not only with local news.
01 The session in one read
Argentina’s main stock index, the Merval, closed on Thursday at 97,993 points, down 1.5%. The index is now published on an MSCI basis, so its level is not comparable with older figures.
A sell-off in US technology shares hit Argentine ADRs, which are receipts that let US investors buy foreign companies in dollars. Nasdaq lost about 2.6% and the S&P 500 1.21%.
At home, country risk, measured by JP Morgan’s bond index, rose above 700 basis points. That level means the government pays about seven percentage points more than the US to borrow in dollars.
Weak activity data added to the mood: Argentina’s August economic activity index, published by INDEC on Wednesday, fell 1.7% from a year earlier.
The session showed that Argentine shares remain tied to global sentiment, and that the jump in country risk adds a local layer of caution. We cannot confirm a single domestic trigger. The variable to watch is whether country risk stays above 700 basis points, because that will decide how much foreign money returns to local shares.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merval (MSCI-based) | 97,993 | −1.5% | Broad fall with global shares |
| USD/ARS, official rate | 1,527.5 | +0.11% | Peso weaker; Banco Nación sells at 1,550 |
| Country risk | above 700 bps | +4% | JP Morgan gauge |
| ARGT, Argentina ADR fund | US$85.74 | −1.91% | Argentine shares in New York |
Country risk matters because it shows how nervous international investors are about Argentina repaying its debt. A reading above 700 basis points means the market is asking a large premium.
The peso’s slide was small next to the fall in shares and ADRs. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Argentina — Live Market Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
MERVAL
3,017,221
—
+30.51%
3,022,485
3,042,365
2,991,150
—
USD/ARS
1,493
+0.10%
+12.96%
1,491
1,494
1,480
—
YPF
7,810
+0.26%
+72.84%
7,790
7,850
7,600
1,763,858
GGAL
6,980
-0.78%
+1.82%
7,035
7,115
6,920
1,564,062
PAMPA
5,115
+0.69%
+26.70%
5,080
5,140
5,000
721,190
TXAR
747.50
-2.35%
+18.67%
765.50
770.00
742.50
771,892
ALUAR
938.00
-1.21%
+29.83%
949.50
951.00
932.50
135,426
TGS
8,870
-0.17%
+15.05%
8,885
9,075
8,720
143,546
CEPU
2,156
+1.84%
+28.36%
2,117
2,165
2,086
404,146
MIRGOR
1,650
-1.20%
-92.90%
1,670
1,670
1,635
20,877
COME
40.93
-0.73%
-30.47%
41.23
41.60
40.50
4,258,884
LOMA NEGRA
3,130
+0.08%
+5.80%
3,128
3,205
3,090
182,992
BYMA
275.00
-1.70%
+35.14%
279.75
282.50
272.00
1,409,575
TELECOM ARG
4,233
-0.70%
+55.19%
4,263
4,335
4,160
31,896
GLOBANT
38.10
-2.26%
-49.65%
38.98
38.70
36.77
793,552
MERCADOLIBRE
1,870
-3.59%
-20.71%
1,940
1,927
1,870
329,640
03 Why it moved: global tech sell-off and country risk
The main trigger was external: US technology shares fell sharply, the Nasdaq by about 2.6%, and that hit Argentine ADRs listed in New York.
Country risk rose above 700 basis points, which suggests some investors are cutting exposure to Argentine debt and equities. US data did not help: initial jobless claims fell to 194,000 against a forecast of 200,000 (RT economic calendar), a firm labour-market reading that kept US interest-rate bets high.
The session did not show a broad reinforcement of the reform trade built around President Javier Milei’s market-oriented policies. Global caution and currency pressure dominated.
04 The day’s movers
| Driver | Level / Move | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Puerto | US$11.77 | −3.29% | Power generator, New York |
| Telecom Argentina | US$12.66 | −2.91% | Telecoms, New York |
| YPF | US$49.17 | −2.38% | State-controlled oil producer, New York |
| Banco Macro | US$62.95 | −2.15% | Bank, New York |
| Grupo Galicia | US$36.12 | −1.90% | Bank, New York |
| Pampa Energía | US$77.90 | −0.03% | Power and gas, New York |
Banks and energy names led the losses among the ADRs. YPF fell 2.38% even though crude oil rose on Thursday, a sign that the sell-off was about risk appetite, not about oil.
Pampa Energía, a power and gas producer, was the only large ADR that held its level.
05 The regional scoreboard
| Index | Country | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Merval | Argentina | −1.5% |
| Ibovespa | Brazil | −1.15% |
| IPC | Mexico | −1.25% |
| IPSA | Chile | −1.88% |
| COLCAP | Colombia | −1.25% |
All five main Latin American markets lost ground, making Thursday a uniformly risk-off day. Chile’s IPSA fell the most, 1.88%.
06 The technical picture
Because the Merval is now published on an MSCI basis, charts built on older data are not comparable. The new index closed at 97,993 on Thursday after losing 1.5%.
The official peso moved from 1,524.75 on Tuesday to 1,525.75 on Wednesday and 1,527.5 on Thursday, a slow steady weakening rather than a jump.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a prediction market, priced Javier Milei at 47.5% to win the next presidential election, with US$1.08 million traded (read at 8:30 pm ET on 22 October). Kalshi, a US exchange regulated by the CFTC, priced Milei at 53%.
These prices are bets, not polls. They can move quickly with each new economic reading.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
07 What to watch
- Country risk: Whether it stays above 700 basis points or retreats will set the tone for bonds and equities.
- Peso: Faster weakening of the official rate would add to the pressure on shares.
- US technology shares: More falls in the Nasdaq could keep pressure on Argentine ADRs.
- Retail sales and consumer confidence: The RT economic calendar listed both releases for Thursday (forecasts 27 and 41.5) but showed no result; a weak reading would add to worries about the economy.
Background: Argentina Stocks Rise as Banks Jump.
Background: Argentina Stocks Dip 0.3% as Risk Eases.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Merval?
It is Argentina’s main stock index, tracking the largest and most-traded companies on the Buenos Aires exchange; it is now published on an MSCI basis.
Why does country risk matter?
Country risk measures how much extra interest Argentina must pay versus US debt. A higher number means investors see more danger and demand more return.
What are ADRs?
ADRs are receipts that let US investors buy shares of foreign companies in dollars on American exchanges, such as YPF or Grupo Galicia.
Why did Argentine stocks fall on Thursday?
The Merval fell 1.5% as US technology shares dropped and country risk rose above 700 basis points.
Market data: RT; exchange figures from BYMA
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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