Poll: Approval of Bolsonaro Rises Again in August – Highest Since March 2019

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – President Jair Bolsonaro’s popularity increased in August and reached 37 percent, from 30 percent in July, according to the XP/IPESPE survey released on Monday, August 17th. This is the highest share of people rating the government as excellent or good since March 2019.

Over the same period, the group of people who rate the Bolsonaro government as bad or terrible dropped from 45 to 37 percent, the lowest since August 2019. The share of those rating the government as average dropped from 24 to 23 percent, within the survey’s 3.2 percentage point error margin.

According to the survey, the improvement in the President’s rating was driven by the population having monthly incomes of up to five minimum wages (R$5,225 or US$1,000). This group is the main beneficiary of the federal emergency aid benefit payments. “Among the poorest, with incomes of up to two minimum wages, approval rose from 28 to 34 percent and among those with incomes of two to five minimum wages, it climbed from 32 to 44 percent,” the XP report says.

According to the survey, 70 percent of the population is in favor of extending the benefit at its current amount of R$600 per month until the end of 2020. The share is 79 percent among respondents who either receive or expect to receive the aid, but it is also high among those who do not expect to receive it, at 64 percent.

In the general population, another 14 percent are in favor of continuing the program until the end of the year, but with lower installments, and 11 percent believe that the aid should not be extended.

In line with the approval data, expectations for the remainder of Bolsonaro’s term have also improved. In this category, the excellent or good rating rose from 33 to 37 percent between July and August. The proportion of respondents with bad or terrible expectations dropped from 43 to 36 percent, and those who perceived the remainder of Bolsonaro’s term as average rose from 20 to 22 percent.

The survey also found improvement in the population’s assessment of the economy. The rate of respondents who considered the economy to be on the right track rose from 33 to 38 percent between July and August, while the ratio of those who viewed the economy on the wrong track plummeted from 52 to 36 percent.

The assessment of the prospects of retaining employment for the next six months has also improved. Those who consider their chances high or very high increased from 46 to 52 percent. Those who consider their prospects low or very low dropped from 46 to 40 percent.

Moreover, the ratio of people who believe their debts will either decrease or greatly decrease within the next six months has also increased, from 23 to 27 percent. Those who consider their debts will increase dropped from 32 to 24 percent and those who think their debts will remain as they are climbed from 35 to 37 percent.

The survey conducted 1,000 telephone interviews between August 13th and 15th. The sample considers respondents’ sex, type of city, region, age, municipality size, religion, occupation, income and schooling.