Oil Fund Slips 0.59% as Petrobras Falls 1.7% | Oil, Oct 19
Key Facts
- The USO oil fund fell 0.59% to US$160.81 on Monday 19 October, while Petrobras fell 1.69% to US$25.56 and YPF fell 2.71% to US$50.69.
- Brent crude settled at US$109.55 a barrel, down about 0.3%, after the United States eased sanctions on Russian oil.
- Ecopetrol, Colombia’s state oil company, fell 0.73% to US$17.77 in New York trading.
- Reports gave different settlement prices for US crude (WTI) on Monday, so we do not quote one.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gives 83.5% to WTI touching US$100 in October and 42.0% to US$105 (US$3.1 million traded across the event, read at 9:15 pm ET on 19 October). Bets, not forecasts.
Today’s Focus
Oil edged lower on Monday 19 October after the United States eased sanctions on Russian oil. Brent crude settled at US$109.55 a barrel, down about 0.3%.
The USO fund, which tracks US crude futures, fell 0.59% to US$160.81. Oil shares in Latin America fell by more.
Petrobras lost 1.69%, Ecopetrol 0.73% and YPF 2.71% in New York. Brent had settled at US$109.86 on Friday 16 October, a five-month high.
What matters today. A sanctions waiver for Russian oil took a little heat out of crude and weighed on Latin American oil shares.
01 The session in one read
Oil eased on Monday as traders weighed the effect of a US waiver on Russian oil sanctions. Brent crude settled at US$109.55 a barrel, down about 0.3%, Reuters reported.
Reports on US crude (WTI) differed, with prices quoted between roughly US$97 and US$104. We therefore leave out a WTI settlement price.
Easier sanctions on Russia suggest more supply may reach the market, which is why prices slipped from Friday’s high. Reports of attacks on shipping continue to limit the fall. The variable to watch is whether Brent holds above US$105.
02 The board
The USO fund settled at US$160.81, down 0.59%. It holds US crude futures, so it tracks WTI and not Brent.
Petrobras closed at US$25.56, down 1.69%, Ecopetrol at US$17.77, down 0.73%, and YPF at US$50.69, down 2.71%. These New York shares are proxies for Brazilian, Colombian and Argentine oil.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crude (USO) | US$160.81 | -0.59% |
| Petrobras | US$25.56 | -1.69% |
| Ecopetrol | US$17.77 | -0.73% |
| YPF | US$50.69 | -2.71% |
Source: RT close, 2026-10-19. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 176,608.23 | -13.88% | +20.17% | 205,082.56 | — | — | — |
| IPSA | 10,575.59 | -1.59% | — | 10,746.36 | 10,642 | 10,457 | — |
| IPC MEX | 69,470.99 | -0.58% | +12.30% | 69,879.62 | — | — | — |
| MERVAL | 2,848,945 | — | +12.65% | 2,859,051 | — | — | — |
| COLCAP | 2,505.04 | -1.38% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.41 | -0.12% | +0.38% | 5.42 | 5.42 | 5.37 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 6.04 | +9.04% | -3.54% | 5.54 | 6.04 | 6.00 | — |
| USD/MXN | 18.63 | +0.33% | +1.15% | 18.57 | 18.63 | 18.54 | — |
| USD/CLP | 988.80 | -0.03% | +6.20% | 989.13 | 991.87 | 988.40 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,129 | +2.39% | -18.49% | 3,056 | 3,147 | 3,129 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.44 | -0.01% | +3.65% | 3.44 | 3.45 | 3.44 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,541 | -0.02% | +4.04% | 1,541 | 1,541 | 1,541 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.08 | +3.22% | +1.94% | 38.83 | 40.08 | 40.08 | — |
| USD/PYG | 5,735 | +2.55% | -17.53% | 5,592 | 5,735 | 5,735 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.82 | +3.62% | +75.69% | 11.41 | 11.82 | 11.82 | — |
| USD/DOP | 61.14 | +2.83% | -3.39% | 59.45 | 61.14 | 60.35 | — |
| USD/CRC | 450.04 | +1.86% | -8.05% | 441.83 | 450.04 | 450.04 | — |
| USD/GTQ | 7.64 | +3.18% | +2.13% | 7.40 | 7.64 | 7.64 | — |
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03 What moved it
The trigger was an executive order signed on Friday 16 October that waived some US sanctions on Russian oil, according to Reuters. Traders took it as a sign that more Russian oil could reach buyers.
Brent still ended close to Friday’s five-month high. Market reports also pointed to continued attacks on shipping, which kept a floor under prices.
04 The Latin American read
Brazil, Colombia and Argentina all earn dollars from oil, so lower prices reduce export income. Petrobras, Ecopetrol and YPF are the state-linked champions in the three countries.
YPF’s drop of 2.71% was the largest of the three. Argentine shares also react to local market mood.
05 The names to watch
Petrobras, Ecopetrol and YPF all trade in New York in dollars. They give US investors a direct way to follow Latin American oil.
The USO fund is the simplest way to follow US crude futures. It does not track Brent, which is the benchmark for most Latin American oil.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a prediction market, priced a touch of US$100 for US crude (WTI) in October at 83.5%, US$105 at 42.0% and US$110 at 17.0%, with US$3.1 million traded across the event (read at 9:15 pm ET on 19 October). The same market priced a fall to US$95 at 61.5%.
These prices are bets, not forecasts. They can move quickly on sanctions news and shipping reports.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
06 The outlook
The next test is whether Brent holds above US$105 now that sanctions are easing. A new round of attacks on shipping would push it back toward Friday’s high.
Latin American oil shares usually follow Brent with a delay and add their own local news. Brazilian election news matters for Petrobras in particular.
07 What to watch
- Brent at US$105: A drop below this level would show the sanctions waiver is changing supply expectations.
- Russian exports: Watch whether more Russian cargoes reach buyers after the waiver.
- Shipping attacks: New incidents would lift prices and help oil shares.
- Petrobras and YPF: Both react to Brent and to local politics.
Background: Brent Oil Rises 3.7% to US$109.86 on Supply Fears.
Background: Brazil Stocks Fall 1.06% as Real Weakens.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What happened to oil on Monday 19 October?
Brent crude settled at US$109.55 a barrel, down about 0.3%. The USO fund, which tracks US crude, fell 0.59% to US$160.81.
Why did oil slip?
The United States eased some sanctions on Russian oil, which suggests more supply may reach the market. Attacks on shipping limited the fall.
How did Latin American oil shares do?
Petrobras fell 1.69%, Ecopetrol 0.73% and YPF 2.71% in New York.
What do prediction markets say about US crude?
Polymarket gave 83.5% to a touch of US$100 in October, as of 9:15 pm ET on 19 October. These are bets, not forecasts.
Market data: RT
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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