BRAZIL · PETROBRAS
Key Facts
- The country Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy, and Petrobras is its state-controlled oil giant, listed on the São Paulo exchange and in New York.
- What happened Brazil’s Ibovespa stock index fell to 204,141.75 points, down about 1.1%, but Petrobras shares turned higher by mid-afternoon on 22 October.
- Oil Brent crude traded near US$112 a barrel, up about 3%, on US-Iran tensions.
- The October run Petrobras preferred shares are up about 16% in October and close to 100% in 2026.
- The vote Brazil’s presidential runoff between Flávio Bolsonaro and President Lula is on Sunday 25 October, three days after this market session.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- What it means for you Holders of Petrobras’ New York shares (ticker PBR) are riding oil prices and election risk at the same time.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
Read our Brazil election 2026 runoff guide →
Brazil runoff polls · Polymarket and Kalshi odds · When results come · Brazil election poll data (CSV)
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 78% · Lula 22.5% (US$192 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 22%
As of 22 October, 3:20 pm ET (20:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Petrobras shares turned higher in afternoon trading on 22 October while Brazil’s Ibovespa index fell about 1.1%, InfoMoney reported. The state oil company was a rare exception, because only 5 of the index’s 76 stocks were rising at midday.
Petrobras shares matter to US readers because the company is listed in New York and tracks oil and the Brazil election 2026 vote. Brent crude traded near US$112 a barrel, which kept the preferred shares (PETR4) afloat.
What Happened to Petrobras Shares on 22 October
The Ibovespa, Brazil’s main stock index, was down 1.14% at 204,141.75 points at 2:43 p.m. in Brasília, according to InfoMoney. Wednesday’s close was 206,495.23 points, down 0.86%, Exame reported.
Petrobras shares opened higher, with the preferred class (PETR4) up 1.04%, then fell 1.12% at 11:23 a.m., the same report showed. By 2:56 p.m. PETR4 was up 0.40% and the common class (PETR3) was up 0.19%.
Exame’s midday market wrap, published at 11:09 a.m., put PETR4 down 0.29% and PETR3 down 1.08%, with the Ibovespa at 205,001 points. The headline said Petrobras, Vale and banks were leading losses, but by mid-afternoon the state oil company had recovered.
Vale, the iron-ore miner, was down 3.40% at 2:28 p.m. and steelmaker CSN was down 6.48% at 2:41 p.m., InfoMoney reported. Bradesco, one of Brazil’s largest banks, was down 2.03% at 2:40 p.m. ahead of its third-quarter results due after the close.
Why Petrobras Shares Resisted the Slide
Oil did the work. Brent crude was up 3.03% at US$112.12 a barrel, after touching US$112.68, as US-Iran tensions raised the risk premium, InfoMoney reported.
Other Brazilian stocks faced a different mix: weaker iron ore, falls in US tech names after earnings, and caution before the runoff. Only 5 of the index’s 76 stocks were rising at 11:42 a.m., so Petrobras stood out against the tape.
The company’s news service, Agência Petrobras, had no newer item than 20 October when this article was written. The move therefore came from oil and sentiment, not from a new filing.
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The October Rally in Numbers
Petrobras shares are up about 16% (preferred) and 18% (common) in October, InfoMoney reported on 22 October, with a gain near 100% for 2026. The stock trades near R$58 (about US$11.54), and consensus price targets sit around R$69 (about US$13.73).
Petrobras shares gained 22.45% in October through 20 October, the best of 19 oil companies worth over US$50 billion in a consultancy survey, InfoMoney reported. Its market value of US$159.49 billion ranks fifth, behind ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell and ConocoPhillips.
October also brought an oil discovery off Amapá and 21 exploration blocks won at an auction, for which Petrobras paid R$3.2 billion (about US$637 million). Partners owe it about US$859 million for two shared fields by November, and it has received R$16 billion (about US$3.18 billion) in federal fuel subsidies.
Eight of the nine brokerages covering the stock rate it a buy, according to a Reuters compilation cited by InfoMoney. The Rio Times has followed the production record and the latest Petrobras news.
Diesel Prices and the Goldman Sachs View
A Goldman Sachs report, cited by InfoMoney at 2:38 p.m., called a diesel rise of up to 50% clearly positive for the company. The bank said the effect on the rest of the fuel chain would be mixed.
Abicom, the association of fuel importers, put Petrobras’ diesel price R$3.24 (about US$0.64) a litre below the international price on Thursday morning, InfoMoney reported. Petrobras last raised diesel 144 days ago and gasoline 43 days ago.
That gap explains why the market watches Brasília as closely as Brent. A price rise would lift Petrobras’ margins but would also feed fuel inflation, and the federal government controls the company.
Election Risk in the Options Market
Implied volatility on PETR4 options that expire after the runoff was 46.76% for calls and 48.22% for puts on 21 October, InfoMoney reported. It was about 47% before the first round and fell to roughly 34% to 36% on the first session after it.
Analyst Matheus Medeiros of Nomos told InfoMoney the market is charging an extra premium to anyone who holds positions through the election. The runoff on Sunday 25 October pits Flávio Bolsonaro against Lula, and the Rio Times tracks the latest Brazil election polls.
InfoMoney said a new Datafolha poll was due at 7 p.m. in Brasília. The Rio Times covered the previous session in its Brazil market report.
What It Means for US Readers
Petrobras shares trade in New York as American depositary receipts under the ticker PBR, so US holders feel the same swings. Its company profile lists the shareholders and the state’s control.
Higher Brent helps earnings, while a weaker real or a political shock could cut the dollar value of the stock. Investors in Brazil-focused funds hold Petrobras as one of the biggest weights alongside Vale and the large banks.
The sessions before and after the Sunday vote are the ones to watch. Options pricing suggests traders expect big swings.
What Is Not Known
The 22 October closing levels were not yet available, so these are intraday readings with the times shown. The size of any diesel rise, and whether the government would allow one before the vote, is unknown.
The dates of the third-quarter results and the new strategic plan have not been announced. It is also unclear how the Datafolha poll will move the market on Friday.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Petrobras shares hold up when the Ibovespa fell?
Brent crude rose about 3% to near US$112 a barrel, which supports the oil company’s earnings. Most other stocks fell on caution before the runoff and weak iron ore.
How much have Petrobras shares risen in 2026?
InfoMoney put the gain at close to 100% for the year and about 16% for the preferred shares in October. The stock trades near R$58 (about US$11.54).
Is there new Petrobras company news on 22 October?
No new filing was reported on 22 October. The move came from oil prices, diesel-price talk and the election.
What is the Goldman Sachs view on diesel?
Goldman said a diesel price rise of up to 50% would be clearly positive for Petrobras. It added that the effect on the rest of the fuel chain would be mixed.
How can US investors own Petrobras?
Petrobras trades in New York as an American depositary receipt under the ticker PBR. Brazil-focused funds also hold the stock.
Sources: Exame, 22 October 2026; Exame, 21 October 2026; InfoMoney, 22 October 2026; InfoMoney, 22 October 2026; InfoMoney, 22 October 2026; InfoMoney, 21 October 2026; InfoMoney, 21 October 2026; Agência Petrobras, 22 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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