RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – President Jair Bolsonaro‘s statements regarding the novel coronavirus pandemic directly influenced the isolation rate in municipalities where he earned the most votes in the 2018 elections. This is the finding of a study in progress led by three economists from Getulio Vargas College and Cambridge University in the United Kingdom.
For the survey, researchers used anonymous geolocation data from 60 million mobile phones and cross-checked them with data from the presidential election results, provided by the Supreme Electoral Court.
The geolocation data, provided by the company InLoco, deem a violation of isolation when individuals distance themselves from their primary address by over 450 meters.
The methodology showed that the compliance rates with quarantine dropped, on average, by up to three percentage points in municipalities that concentrated the most Bolsonaro supporters in two specific events, which had great national and international repercussions, on March 15th and 24th. In both situations, the President downplayed the impacts of Covid-19.
The first occurred when he took part in demonstrations in Brasília in a pro-government act and against the National Congress. At the time, he touched protesters, picked up cell phones to take selfies and hugged supporters. That same day, Fábio Wajngarten, Bolsonaro’s communications secretary, had tested positive for Covid-19. The President’s stance was featured in all media outlets that day and took over social media.
Ten days later, Bolsonaro issued a nationally televised statement criticizing the quarantine imposed by governors, in addition to saying that “nothing justified the closure of schools,” since the group at risk of the disease are the elderly. He then stated that the country needed to return to “normality” as soon as possible.
The researchers found that following these two events, the difference in isolation rates in pro and anti-Bolsonaro cities, which were once minimal, began to grow and persisted for at least a week.
Some surveys show lower compliance by Bolsonaro’s constituents to confinement, as this week’s Datafolha report showed. Among those who do not agree with isolation, 67 percent are supporters of the President.
However, the main point in this study is to demonstrate that there are a direct cause and effect link in the population immediately after the President’s statements, according to Nicolás Ajzenman, one of the study’s authors.
“It’s not only a link between voting for Bolsonaro and disregarding isolation. This correlation can happen for several reasons. An important point in the survey is the “timing” of events: it shows that a drop in social isolation happens only after he speaks. And the main finding in the survey is leaders matter,” he says.
The influence of leaders
The impact of the influence of political leaders’ discourse on society is one of the areas of expertise of Brazilian Leonardo Bursztyn, Ph.D. at Harvard and assistant professor of economics at the University of Chicago, the mecca of global economic liberalism.
In a conversation with Exame magazine, Bursztyn considers that Bolsonaro’s behavior is similar to that of US President Donald Trump, who recently suggested that injecting a disinfectant could help treat the novel coronavirus. That week, New York recorded a surge in intoxications from the product.
“People look at leaders and their behaviors, and this influences them in many ways, such as identifying with the President’s behavior, an excuse to take similar stances or even a question of identity in a scenario as polarized as Brazil,” he says.
However, he considers that in a viral pandemic, where distancing is the best form of protection, the consequences of the rulers’ actions can be lethal, as it is not only the life of the voter that is being threatened, but of others.
Bursztyn is one of the authors of a study that was published in April, “Misinformation During a Pandemic,” which measured the impact of Covid-19 using two Fox News shows, one that ignored and another that alerted to the risks of the novel coronavirus.
Using a poll of the station’s viewers over 55 years old and publicly available data, they estimated that Fox viewers who watched the program most were less likely to comply with the social distancing rules. These viewers’ areas also had higher rates of infection and death.
Source: Exame
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