USDA expects lowest Brazilian coffee crop in 4 years

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The Brazilian coffee production for the 2021/22 (July-June) crop was estimated at 56.3 million 60-kilo bags, a 19% reduction compared to last cycle’s revised record of 69.9 million bags, pointed out the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), according to a report from its São Paulo office.

Production in 2021/22 will be the lowest since the 2017/18 season, when it totaled 52.10 million bags, the USDA noted.

However, that year the production of arabica, Brazil’s main type of coffee, was 4.5 million bags higher than expected for the new cycle.

The arabica 21/22 crop was estimated at 35 million bags, a 30% reduction compared to the preceding season.

“Adverse weather conditions in arabica growing regions and the mainly in-season trees of the biennial production cycle explain the projected decline,” USDA commented.

In addition to the prolonged drought that will impact yields, the USDA also cited that producers pruned their crops, in preparation for the 2022 season, which reduces the harvest area in 2021.

The robusta/conillon crop was estimated at 21.3 million bags, up 1.1 million bags year-on-year.

“Good rainfall volumes favored the main producing states, in addition to better use of good crop management practices and clonal seedlings,” it said.

Brazilian coffee exports in 2021/22 were projected at 35.22 million bags, a sharp drop of almost 10 million bags, compared to a record 45 million bags in 2020/21, due to the expected lower availability of beans in the largest global producer and exporter.

The coffee harvest is now in its early stages in Brazil.

According to experts, rainfall expected to reach the main arabica coffee-producing regions of Brazil by the end of the week and to intensify in the following days is welcome, although it is expected to slow down the harvesting work in its initial phase.

The National Food Supply Company (CONAB) is expected to release its second estimate of Brazil’s coffee crop for 2021 next Tuesday; it points to a 30% drop in arabica production.