Ukraine Ceasefire Odds Fall to 44%
Prediction Markets: Russia and Ukraine
Key Facts
—Prediction markets. Polymarket prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by 31 December 2027 at about 44%, down roughly 9 points in 24 hours (read 10:28 Eastern Time, 5 November 2026).
—Why. No single trigger was reported. The fall came days before US-brokered talks in Abu Dhabi.
—Next. Ukraine, Russia and the US are due to meet in Abu Dhabi on 10 and 11 November.
—Volume. The ceasefire event has traded about US$3.4 million in total and about US$66,000 in 24 hours.
Traders on Polymarket now put the chance of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by the end of 2027 at about 44%, down from roughly 53% a day earlier, even as new peace talks get ready to open.
A ceasefire is the question every investor in oil, wheat and defence stocks is asking. For a US reader the answer decides how long sanctions, weapons spending and the war’s pull on Washington last.
On Thursday, 5 November 2026, Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, valued a ceasefire by 31 December 2027 at about 44%. That is roughly 9 points below the 53% we recorded a day earlier. Polymarket’s own 24-hour change field shows 8.5 points.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket lets people trade contracts that pay out if an event happens. The price, in cents on the dollar, is read as the crowd’s probability. Our read at 10:28 Eastern Time on 5 November 2026:
- Ceasefire by 31 December 2027: about 44% (the last trade was lower, near 38%).
- Ceasefire by 31 March 2027: 17.5%.
- Ceasefire by 31 December 2026: 9.5%.
- Volume: about US$3.4 million for the whole event, about US$66,000 in the last 24 hours, about US$27,000 of it on the 2027 contract. We found no matching Kalshi market, the exchange regulated in the US by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission).
A separate Polymarket market on a ceasefire “agreement” by the same date trades near 70%. The two contracts use different wording, so they are not directly comparable, and we have not compared their resolution rules line by line.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why the Odds Moved
No single trigger was reported. We looked at the last 48 hours of official statements and regional coverage and found no event that explains a drop of this size.
What did happen is a build-up to talks. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, said this week that negotiations must move “at full throttle” to end the war as quickly as possible. He had held a detailed call of about 90 minutes with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s special envoys.
Negotiators from Ukraine, Russia and the United States are due to meet in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, on Tuesday, 10 November, and Wednesday, 11 November. They would be the first talks between all three sides since February.
That makes the move puzzling at first glance, since talks usually lift ceasefire odds. One reading is that traders see little chance that a first round produces a deal, but we cannot confirm that.
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 76,442 | -4.93% | -26.48% | 80,405 | 80,794 | 76,442 | 37,838,503,936 |
| ETH | 2,273 | -6.17% | -33.66% | 2,422 | 2,434 | 2,273 | 15,474,058,240 |
| SOL | 90.96 | -4.74% | -44.06% | 95.49 | 96.88 | 90.54 | 4,328,566,784 |
| XRP | 1.26 | -3.64% | -46.43% | 1.30 | 1.32 | 1.26 | 2,210,097,408 |
| BNB | 693.37 | -3.64% | -27.79% | 719.55 | 720.76 | 691.92 | 1,438,524,800 |
| ADA | 0.18 | -6.42% | -66.16% | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.18 | 302,644,640 |
| DOGE | 0.07 | -5.88% | -56.70% | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 685,349,760 |
| AVAX | 8.29 | -5.12% | -50.19% | 8.74 | 8.84 | 8.29 | 263,190,544 |
| LINK | 10.82 | -5.41% | -28.56% | 11.44 | 11.63 | 10.82 | 365,041,568 |
| DOT | 0.90 | -5.25% | -66.14% | 0.95 | 0.96 | 0.90 | 126,007,400 |
| LTC | 52.61 | -6.44% | -41.25% | 56.24 | 56.36 | 52.59 | 196,836,240 |
| BCH | 281.16 | -0.24% | -42.61% | 281.83 | 289.77 | 279.43 | 222,522,192 |
| TRX | 0.32 | -1.06% | +9.45% | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 400,406,976 |
| XLM | 0.16 | -7.41% | -44.59% | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 156,850,192 |
| HBAR | 0.07 | -6.10% | -61.11% | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 65,178,060 |
| NEAR | 3.75 | -6.39% | +92.20% | 4.01 | 4.06 | 3.74 | 640,041,280 |
| ATOM | 1.43 | -3.17% | -46.46% | 1.48 | 1.54 | 1.43 | 43,054,284 |
| AAVE | 125.48 | -4.78% | -37.86% | 131.78 | 133.66 | 125.45 | 282,654,112 |
What It Means for US Readers
The US is now a direct party. Two White House envoys are preparing the talks, so a result would be read as a verdict on Washington’s diplomacy as well as Kyiv’s and Moscow’s.
Markets that react to the war are oil, natural gas, European defence stocks and wheat. A lower ceasefire price is not a signal to trade; it shows only that bettors see the end as further away than they did yesterday. Our earlier piece on talks odds is here.
What It Means for Latin America and Africa
Both regions feel the war through food and fuel. Brazil is a heavy buyer of Russian fertiliser, and many African importers rely on wheat from the Black Sea region. A longer war keeps those costs exposed; a ceasefire would ease them, though we have no market prices to show for that.
See also our Africa odds and Latin America odds pages, and the prediction markets hub.
What Is Not Known
We do not know who will sit at the table in Abu Dhabi, what Russia will bring, or why traders cut the odds now. The talks are planned, not held, so their outcome is open.
The markets also say nothing about the terms of a ceasefire, such as lines on the map or security guarantees. Zelensky said Ukraine has presented its proposals to the US side. The odds will probably move again after 11 November.
Frequently Asked Questions
What do the prediction markets expect on a Ukraine ceasefire?
On 5 November 2026, Polymarket priced a ceasefire by 31 December 2027 at about 44%, by 31 March 2027 at 17.5% and by 31 December 2026 at 9.5%. These are bets, not forecasts by The Rio Times.
Why did the ceasefire odds fall?
No single trigger was reported. The fall came while Ukraine, Russia and the US were preparing talks in Abu Dhabi for 10 and 11 November.
What are the Abu Dhabi talks?
Negotiators from Ukraine, Russia and the United States are due to meet in Abu Dhabi on 10 and 11 November. They would be the first talks between all three sides since February.
Is a prediction market the same as a poll?
No. A poll asks people what they think; a market shows what traders will pay to bet on an outcome. Polymarket is a crypto-based platform, and the contract here does not count as an official forecast.
What does this mean for readers in Latin America and Africa?
A ceasefire would matter for grain, fertiliser and fuel prices, and for citizens recruited into the war. We report only what is documented, and the markets do not say how any of this would play out.
Sources: Polymarket public market data (Kalshi checked, no matching market; read 5 November 2026, 10:28 Eastern Time); Statements by Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky, 4 and 5 November 2026; Abu Dhabi talks schedule as announced for 10 and 11 November 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief