Ukraine and U.S. Forge Rare Earths Pact to Counter China’s Supply Chain Grip

Ukraine and the United States are close to finalizing a minerals agreement that could reshape the global rare earths market, according to Ukrainian officials and public statements from both governments.

The deal, which has taken months to negotiate, would give the US preferential access to Ukraine’s untapped rare earths and other critical mineral resources in exchange for future investment and military support.

Ukraine holds deposits of 22 out of 34 minerals the European Union classifies as critical, including rare earth elements, lithium, titanium, and graphite.

Government and industry sources estimate Ukraine’s reserves could exceed one million tons of rare earths, but about half of these deposits lie in regions currently under Russian occupation.

This occupation limits immediate access and complicates extraction, but the remaining reserves still offer significant potential for development. The US has pushed for this agreement as part of a broader strategy to reduce dependence on China.

China supplies over 60% of the world’s rare earths and controls 90% of global refining capacity. Recent Chinese export controls on several rare earth elements have intensified US efforts to secure alternative sources.

Diversifying Supply for Economic and National Security

The US Geological Survey and industry analysts agree that diversifying supply is now a matter of economic and national security. The draft agreement, reviewed by officials, would establish a joint US-Ukrainian fund.

Ukraine would channel profits from new mineral projects into this fund, with the US holding first claim on returns. Existing contracts with other companies remain unaffected.

The deal covers a range of resources, from rare earths to energy assets like oil and gas. Ukrainian officials emphasize that only future US military aid will count toward the fund, not the tens of billions already provided.

Negotiations have not been smooth. Earlier this year, a planned signing collapsed after a dispute between US and Ukrainian leaders. Since then, Ukraine has pushed for improved terms, including stronger security guarantees and more balanced profit-sharing.

The Ukrainian government insists that the agreement will not conflict with its ambitions to join the European Union, which also seeks access to Ukraine’s minerals.

Ukraine’s rare earth potential is significant but faces hurdles. Most data on reserves come from Soviet-era surveys, and experts warn that many sites may not be profitable to extract with current technology.

Developing these resources will require substantial investment, modernization, and improved security in mining regions. Some industry experts remain cautious, noting that no economically viable rare earth projects have yet reached commercial production in Ukraine.

For the US, the deal is about securing a stable supply of critical minerals for defense, electronics, and renewable energy industries. For Ukraine, it is a chance to attract investment and strengthen ties with Western allies as the war with Russia continues.

The agreement’s final terms await approval by Ukraine’s parliament, but both sides see the deal as a step toward greater economic and strategic cooperation in a rapidly changing global market.