Who Runs Uganda’s Economy, the Key Players in 2026

UGANDA · ECONOMY

The Uganda economy runs through a few hands, led by the Finance Ministry, the central bank and the state oil company. This guide names the key players in October 2026 and shows what each controls, from oil to mobile money.

It matters to Americans because oil, gold and coffee from Uganda reach world markets and a falling shilling is testing every player.

Uganda Economy in Plain English

Uganda’s output in the year to June 2026 reached Shs 250.4 trillion (US$69.3 billion, the ministry’s conversion), after growth of 6.4%. Agriculture, industry and services all grew, the Finance Minister told Parliament on 27 October 2026.

Government calls its plan the Tenfold Growth Strategy. Stanbic Uganda Holdings describes the aim as lifting the economy from US$50 billion to US$500 billion by 2040.

Our country page on Uganda follows the daily news behind these players. The list below explains the terms used in this guide.

• Shilling (Shs): Uganda’s currency, converted in this guide at about Shs 4,289 per US dollar, the 31 October 2026 rate.
• Finance Ministry: sets the budget and borrowing, led by Minister Henry Musasizi.
• Bank of Uganda: the central bank, which sets the Central Bank Rate, its key interest rate.
• UNOC: Uganda National Oil Company, owned entirely by the state.
• EACOP: the East African Crude Oil Pipeline, which will carry Ugandan crude to the Tanzanian coast.
• USE: the Uganda Securities Exchange, the stock market in Kampala.

The Treasury, the Central Bank and the Shilling

The Finance Ministry and the Bank of Uganda hold the most power over the Uganda economy. Musasizi told Parliament on 27 October 2026 that the shilling slid from about Shs 3,604 per dollar in March to Shs 4,500.

He said that is about 25% more shillings for each dollar. He blamed dearer fuel imports, higher demand for dollars, higher returns abroad, lower coffee and cocoa prices and weaker tourism earnings.

What the Central Bank Did

The Bank of Uganda has raised its Central Bank Rate from 9.75% to 12%. The minister said it also lifted the share of deposits that commercial banks must hold in reserve from 11% to 13.5%.

Inflation was 4.6% in September 2026, with core inflation at 3.7%, below the bank’s 5% target. Energy, fuel and utilities inflation was 14.5%, which weighs on households and firms.

What the Treasury Is Doing

First-half spending releases for the 2026/27 budget are limited to 45.6% of the approved total, against a plan of 55.7%. The ministry also ruled out price controls and broad fuel subsidies, arguing they cause shortages and favour richer households.

September 2026 brought a budget gap of Shs 244.14 billion (US$57 million), against a planned Shs 33.18 billion (US$7.7 million). Total revenue, including grants, reached Shs 2,904.29 billion (US$677 million), or 91.3% of target.

Oil and the State Oil Company

Uganda’s biggest bet is crude oil from the Lake Albert region in the west. UNOC is the state partner in both big oil projects, called Tilenga and Kingfisher.

TotalEnergies, a French energy company, operates Tilenga, and CNOOC, a Chinese oil company, operates Kingfisher. The pipeline company, EACOP, says the two together should peak near 230,000 barrels a day.

EACOP announced on 2 September 2026 that President Yoweri Museveni had named the blend Pearl Sweet. The crude is waxy and must stay hot, so the pipe is insulated and buried.

How Far the Pipeline Has Come

The pipeline company said on 1 October 2026 that overall progress was about 93%. Visiting auditors-general from Uganda and Tanzania said they expect first oil in early 2027.

The project is a US$4 billion investment across both countries, according to the company. Its timing matters because oil projects are already pulling in imported goods and services, the minister said.

UNOC and the Fuel Bill

UNOC is the sole importer of bulk petroleum products for Uganda. Its management page lists Proscovia Nabbanja as chief executive as of 31 October 2026.

About 95% of the country’s fuel, nearly 2.96 billion litres a year, arrives through Kenya. In March 2026 UNOC took a 20.15% stake in the Kenya Pipeline Company, which carries that fuel.

The Bank of Uganda says energy firms’ net demand for dollars rose from US$360 million to US$620 million year on year. That extra demand in the three months to September 2026 is one reason the shilling fell.

• TotalEnergies: holds 62% of the pipeline company, the largest share.
• UNOC: holds 15%, the same as Tanzania’s state oil company, TPDC.
• CNOOC: the fourth shareholder, alongside TotalEnergies, UNOC and TPDC.
• Pipeline: more than 1,440 kilometres from Hoima in Uganda to the port of Tanga in Tanzania, with 296 kilometres inside Uganda.

Gold, Coffee and the Export Bill

Gold is now the main earner of dollars in the Uganda economy, ahead of coffee. Exports totalled US$1,492.09 million in August 2026, up 40.6% on a year earlier, and gold supplied about US$889.0 million, or 60%.

The Middle East took 53.8% of all exports, almost all of it to the United Arab Emirates, which buys Ugandan gold. Neighbouring East African Community countries took 21.4%, Asia 9.9% and the European Union 9.7%.

Coffee Under Pressure

Coffee earned US$181.65 million in August 2026, down 10.4% on a year earlier, with only 0.74 million bags of 60 kilograms shipped. Drought in Greater Masaka, Kyotera, Sembabule and Luwero cut harvests by about 10% below normal, the ministry said.

The International Coffee Organization’s price index fell 9.9% between January and February 2026 and 8.7% between August and September 2026. Other exports are small by comparison, including flowers at US$10.3 million, maize at US$13.3 million and tea at US$4.9 million.

A Widening Trade Gap

Imports jumped 66.5% to US$2,309.12 million in August 2026, with oil imports at US$244.59 million. The trade deficit widened to US$817.03 million from US$325.53 million a year earlier.

Machinery, vehicles, mineral products and petroleum drove the rise, the ministry said. That gap feeds the pressure on the shilling and the wider Uganda economy.

The Phone Companies

MTN Uganda and Airtel Uganda are two large phone companies, and both are listed on the Uganda Securities Exchange. MTN Uganda is part of the multinational MTN Group and had 25.4 million subscribers in the first half of 2026.

Revenue rose 9.7% to Shs 1,888.2 billion (US$440 million) in the first half. Profit after tax rose 37.7% to Shs 367.5 billion (US$86 million) under chief executive Sylvia Mulinge.

Airtel says the temporary internet shutdown during the January 2026 general election lowered its data earnings per customer. In the half it added 384 5G sites and 1,621 kilometres of fibre.

• MTN taxes: the company says it contributed Shs 803.8 billion (US$187 million) in direct and indirect taxes in its half-year results.
• MTN mobile money: revenue of Shs 568.0 billion (US$132 million) in the first half of 2026, up 10.8%.
• Airtel Uganda: 19.7 million customers and revenue of Shs 1,194.9 billion (US$279 million), up 10.2%.
• Airtel profit after tax: Shs 224.7 billion (US$52 million), up 13.9%, under managing director Soumendra Sahu.
• Dividends: MTN declared Shs 386.2 billion (US$90 million) and Airtel Shs 196 billion (US$46 million) for the half.

Banks, Credit and the Stock Exchange

Stanbic Uganda Holdings is a listed bank group and a major lender in the Uganda economy. It reported net profit of Shs 357 billion (US$83 million) for the first half of 2026, up 28.2%.

Total assets reached Shs 13.4 trillion (US$3.1 billion), and Mark Ocitti Ongom is chief executive in the August 2026 results. Its bank has a loan book of Shs 5.3 trillion (US$1.2 billion) and deposits of Shs 9.2 trillion (US$2.1 billion).

Credit and Interest Rates

Private-sector credit stood at Shs 28,615.43 billion (US$6.7 billion) in August 2026, up 19.0% on a year earlier. The average rate on shilling loans edged up to 17.90%, while dollar loans cost 7.46%.

Centenary Bank, which calls itself Uganda’s largest commercial microfinance bank, says it serves over 3.4 million customers. The state raised Shs 2,281.93 billion (US$532 million) at three auctions in September 2026, with bids at 2.82 times the amount offered.

Who Is Listed on the Exchange

The Uganda Securities Exchange lists 18 stock counters as of 31 October 2026. Local names include MTN Uganda, Airtel Uganda, Stanbic, dfcu, Bank of Baroda Uganda and British American Tobacco Uganda.

Kenyan cross-listings include East African Breweries, KCB, Equity Bank and Kenya Airways. Quality Chemical Industries (Qcil) warned on 29 October 2026 that its half-year profit would fall by at least 25%.

Qcil blamed a one-off entry after a capital gains tax dispute with the Uganda Revenue Authority went against it. The company said the entry is not part of its core business.

• Stanbic dividend: the board approved an interim payout of Shs 220 billion (US$51 million) on 13 August 2026.

Taxes, Pensions and Public Revenue

Tax is the state’s main income in the Uganda economy, and September 2026 showed both strength and strain. Tax revenue was Shs 2,665.29 billion (US$621 million), up 12.4% on September 2025, yet Shs 218.77 billion (US$51 million) short of target.

Weak value-added tax from cement, soft drinks and beer drove the largest shortfall, and petroleum taxes lagged because fewer fuel volumes arrived. Interest on debt took Shs 715.46 billion (US$167 million) in the month, about a quarter of all revenue.

The Pension Fund

The National Social Security Fund (NSSF) is a provident fund for all private-sector employees not covered by the government’s pension scheme. Its total assets are not stated on its home page.

Family-owned groups also shape the Uganda economy, but their accounts and ownership are not public. For that reason this guide names no individual business owners and ranks no private fortunes.

What It Means for US Readers

The slide in the shilling is partly an American story, because the Finance Minister linked it to higher US interest rates. The Federal Reserve raised its rate by a quarter point on 17 September 2026, to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%.

The minister said such returns can pull investment away from markets like Uganda. He also warned firms against borrowing in dollars unless their income is in dollars, a point for any US lender in Kampala.

Ebola-related travel restrictions and health screening have affected visitor arrivals, the ministry says. The effect on tourism income is not yet known.

Our reports on the Bank of Uganda rate rise and the shilling at a 33-year low track the currency. Our guide to Uganda’s geopolitics shows where the gold goes.

What Is Not Known

The NSSF’s total assets are not stated on its home page, so this guide does not rank it. Private business families are left out because no primary figures cover them.

Visiting auditors-general expect first oil in early 2027, but the pipeline company gives no firm date. UNOC’s planned 60,000-barrel refinery at Kabaale in Hoima district has no completion date on its project page.

The minister said he cannot responsibly promise a specific exchange rate or say when the pressure will ease. The effect of Ebola travel restrictions on third-quarter tourism income is yet to be established.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who runs the Uganda economy?

The Finance Ministry under Henry Musasizi and the Bank of Uganda set budget and interest-rate policy. UNOC controls fuel imports, while MTN, Airtel and Stanbic are the biggest private players.

What is Uganda’s main export?

Gold, which earned about US$889 million of US$1,492 million in exports in August 2026. Coffee is second at US$181.65 million.

What is the Bank of Uganda’s interest rate?

The Central Bank Rate is 12%, up from 9.75%, the finance minister told Parliament on 27 October 2026. The bank also raised the reserve share that commercial banks must hold.

Which are the biggest companies in Uganda?

Large listed names include MTN Uganda, with Shs 1,888.2 billion (US$440 million) in first-half 2026 revenue, Airtel Uganda and Stanbic Uganda Holdings. The state oil company UNOC is the sole fuel importer.

When will Uganda produce oil?

Visiting auditors-general said on 1 October 2026 that they expect first oil in early 2027. The pipeline company said the project was about 93% complete.

Why is the Ugandan shilling falling?

The Finance Minister blames dearer fuel imports, more demand for dollars, higher US interest rates and weaker coffee prices. The shilling moved from about Shs 3,604 to around Shs 4,500 per dollar between March and October 2026.

Does Uganda have a stock market?

Yes, the Uganda Securities Exchange in Kampala lists 18 stock counters as of 31 October 2026. They include MTN Uganda, Airtel Uganda and Stanbic.

Sources: Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, Statement to Parliament on the State of Uganda’s Economy, Minister Henry Musasizi, 2026-10-27; Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, Performance of the Economy Report, September 2026, 2026-10-21; MTN Uganda Limited, interim financial results for the six months ended 30 June 2026, 2026-08; Airtel Uganda Limited, interim financial results for the six months ended 30 June 2026, 2026-08; Stanbic Uganda Holdings Limited, half-year results for the period ended 30 June 2026, 2026-08-13; Quality Chemical Industries Limited, profit warning announcement, 2026-10-29; Uganda Securities Exchange, listed equities, 2026-10-31; East African Crude Oil Pipeline Ltd, Pearl Sweet naming and project progress, 2026-09-02; East African Crude Oil Pipeline Ltd, auditors-general visit and 93% progress, 2026-10-01; East African Crude Oil Pipeline Ltd, shareholders, 2026-10-31; East African Crude Oil Pipeline Ltd, home page (US$4 billion investment), 2026-10-31; TotalEnergies, TotalEnergies in Uganda, 2026-10-31; Uganda National Oil Company, management page, 2026-10-31; Uganda National Oil Company, investment in Kenya Pipeline Company and bulk fuel imports, 2026-03-02; Uganda National Oil Company, The Uganda Refinery Project, 2026-10-31; Centenary Bank Uganda, home page, 2026-10-31; National Social Security Fund of Uganda, home page, 2026-10-31; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, open market operations and target federal funds rate, 2026-09-17.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief