Trade Tensions Cloud Mexico’s 5.5% Export Surge in January 2025

Mexico’s exports grew 5.5% year-over-year in January 2025, reaching $44.45 billion, according to data released Thursday by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).

This growth, driven by an 8.8% increase in manufacturing exports, came despite mounting trade uncertainties with the United States under President Donald Trump’s administration.

Manufacturing exports totaled $39.77 billion, with non-automotive sectors surging 14.5%. However, automotive exports dropped 17% to $12.47 billion, marking their lowest level in over two years.

Oil exports contributed $1.66 billion, including $1.2 billion from crude sales, while agricultural exports rose slightly to $2.17 billion. Imports also increased by 5.9% year-over-year to $49 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $4.56 billion—the largest since August 2024.

The deficit contrasts sharply with December’s $2.57 billion surplus and reflects seasonal trends alongside reduced automotive demand. Tensions with the U.S., Mexico’s largest trading partner, loom heavily over these figures.

Approximately 84% of Mexico’s non-oil exports were destined for the U.S. in January. President Trump has threatened a 25% tariff on all Mexican imports starting March 4, delayed from an initial February deadline.

Mexico’s Economic Struggles

Mexican officials are negotiating to prevent these tariffs, which could disrupt supply chains and reduce exports by up to 12%, according to BBVA Research. The proposed tariffs would hit Mexico’s automotive sector particularly hard, with additional levies on vehicles and parts slated for April.

Nissan and General Motors have already signaled potential production adjustments if tariffs are imposed. Oil exports faced challenges as well, with daily crude shipments averaging 573,000 barrels in January—down from December’s 864,000 barrels and significantly lower than January 2024’s levels.

Despite a higher average crude price of $67.57 per barrel compared to December, overall oil revenues declined. Mexico’s export-oriented economy has grown increasingly reliant on trade since joining NAFTA in 1994.

Recent geopolitical developments, however, highlight its vulnerability to external pressures. While non-automotive manufacturing shows promise, the looming threat of U.S. tariffs underscores the fragility of Mexico’s economic ties with its northern neighbor.