Serbia Turnout Tops 56% With Four Hours Left
Key Facts
- Turnout: 56.38% of registered voters had voted by 16:00 Central European Time, CET (11:00 a.m. ET).
- Pace: Turnout was 46.53% at 14:00 CET, against about 32% at the same hour in December 2023.
- Polling stations: Close at 20:00 CET (3:00 p.m. ET) for 250 parliamentary seats, with 6,450,523 voters registered.
- Incidents: Serbian media reported attacks on people heading to vote near a polling station in central Belgrade.
- Prediction markets: Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market, prices President Vučić’s ruling list at 55% and the student-led list at 46% (12:43 p.m. ET).
Published Sunday, 25 October, 12:43 p.m. ET · Source: Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia, the state body that runs the vote
More than half of Serbia’s registered voters had cast a ballot by 16:00 CET (11:00 a.m. ET) in Sunday’s snap parliamentary election. The Republic Electoral Commission (RIK) put turnout at 56.38%.
Polling stations stay open until 20:00 CET (3:00 p.m. ET). We covered the build-up in our Saturday preview, the campaign ban before the vote, the 6.45 million voter register and the final opinion polls.
Turnout Runs Well Above 2023
RIK reported 46.53% of registered voters at 14:00 CET, so turnout rose by about 9.9 points in two hours. At 16:00 CET in December 2023, turnout was 42.36%, according to N1, a Serbian news channel, and Vreme, a Belgrade weekly.
That puts this vote about 14 points ahead of the last parliamentary election at the same hour. A final figure will come only after polling stations close at 20:00 CET.
Incidents Reported on Voting Day
Mašina.rs, an independent Serbian news site, reported at 15:00 CET that a group of men first verbally and then physically attacked people heading to vote near a polling station in central Belgrade. 021.rs, a news portal in Novi Sad, led its live coverage with the report that a woman was attacked in the city centre.
Danas, a Belgrade daily, also headlined incidents across the country. We have not been able to confirm the number of incidents, and no official response was available at the time of writing.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Kalshi, the ruling list led by the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), President Aleksandar Vučić’s party, was priced at 55% to win, and the Student List, a list backed by the student protest movement, at 46%, at 12:43 p.m. ET. The two contracts are priced separately, so they need not add to 100%, and 86,940 contracts had traded.
At 4:27 a.m. ET, in our earlier report, Kalshi priced the ruling list at 75% and the Student List at 26%. Kalshi also priced at least 46% of the vote for the Student List at 51%, and at least 50% at 29%.
On Polymarket, a global prediction market, a turnout contract with US$121,123 traded priced a final turnout of 70% or more at 69.5% and 66% to 70% at 26.0%, at 12:40 p.m. ET. Kalshi is regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and all of these prices are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
For readers in the United States, high turnout makes this vote harder to call, and traders have narrowed the gap between the two lists since the morning. The result will show whether a long-dominant leader can hold off a student-led protest movement in a Balkan country.
If you travel to Serbia, check your government’s travel advice, because incidents were reported in Belgrade today. Final official results can take days after polling stations close.
What Is Not Known
No result or projection is available, and the winner and the size of any majority are unknown. We could not independently check how turnout will move before the count ends.
The scale of the reported incidents is unclear. The final turnout is not yet known.
Sources
Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia · Danas · 021.rs · Nova.rs · Kalshi · Polymarket
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
Frequently Asked Questions
What was Serbia’s turnout at 4 p.m. CET?
The Republic Electoral Commission reported 56.38% of registered voters by 16:00 CET (11:00 a.m. ET). At 14:00 CET it was 46.53%.
How does turnout compare with 2023?
At 16:00 CET in December 2023 it was 42.36%, so this vote is about 14 points ahead at the same hour.
When do polling stations close in Serbia?
Polling stations close at 20:00 CET on Sunday 25 October 2026, which is 3:00 p.m. ET. Final official results can take days.
What incidents were reported on election day?
Serbian media reported that a group of men attacked people heading to vote near a polling station in central Belgrade. The scale of incidents is unconfirmed.
What do prediction markets say about the vote?
At 12:43 p.m. ET, Kalshi priced the ruling list at 55% and the Student List at 46% to win. These are bets, not polls.