Peso Steadies Near 3,860 As Colombian Stocks Edge Up; Inflation And LNG Plan Set The Tone

The Colombian peso hovered around 3,863 per dollar on Tuesday morning, holding Monday’s tight range as the Dollar Index traded near 98.3.

Traders marked 3,842–3,845 as the first support band and 3,883–3,890—then 3,912—as resistance. The COLCAP equity benchmark sat in the 1,860s, little changed after a modest rise the day before.

The headline, and the story behind it, is that Colombia is still a high-carry market facing inflation that has eased from 2023 but remains above target.

September CPI came in at 0.51% month-on-month and 5.1% year-on-year, keeping pressure on the central bank to move cautiously after holding its policy rate at 9.25% last week.

That combination—appealing local yields but sticky prices—supports the peso on dips but limits big rallies when the global dollar is firm.

Micro drivers helped the equity tone. Cementos Argos announced a share-buyback tender, drawing attention to the cement and infrastructure complex.

Ecopetrol set Oct. 14 to open binding bids for an LNG regasification project at Coveñas, a medium-term positive for domestic gas security and midstream strategy.

In flows, the most-traded lines Monday were PF Cibest (about COP 8.5 billion), Ecopetrol (around COP 7.9 billion), and Grupo Argos (roughly COP 7.6 billion).

Top movers (Monday close, BVC)

Winners:

• Grupo Nutresa (+8.62%)
• Mineros (+4.53%)
• PEI – Patrimonio Estrategias Inmobiliarias (+3.23%)
• Corficolombiana Pref (+1.48%)
• Ecopetrol (+0.85%)

Losers:

• Organización Terpel (−2.38%)
• Cementos Argos (−1.90%)
• BAC Holding International (−1.79%)
• Canacol Energy (−0.75%)
• Grupo Sura (−0.74%)

How to read today’s setup, simply: if the Dollar Index stays firm, USD/COP is more likely to chop in a 3,845–3,890 range than break decisively lower. A softer dollar would reopen the 3,84 handle.

On equities, the COLCAP remains in an up-trend on longer-dated charts but is pausing; buyers have tended to show up near 1,855, while 1,870–1,885 caps near term unless fresh news or stronger flows arrive.

In short, Colombia is balancing a credible carry story with inflation not yet at target. That makes the day’s direction more about the dollar and a handful of corporate catalysts than any single local data point.