Colombian Firms Back Brazil Before Lula Win

BRAZIL · BUSINESS

Colombian companies are deepening their bets on Brazil in oil and power lines, but the biggest deals were signed months before Lula won a fourth term.

Colombian companies have spent 2026 expanding in Brazil, and Ecopetrol completed a major purchase there on 17 August. The Brazilian presidential runoff came later, on Sunday, 25 October 2026, when President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won re-election.

The timing matters for the story. Company filings show the main Colombian deals were agreed or completed before the vote, and no filing links them to it.

For US readers, the link is direct. Ecopetrol, Colombia’s state-controlled oil company, trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker EC, so its Brazil exposure reaches American portfolios.

What We Know

Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court, known as the TSE, says Lula received 64,256,232 votes, or 51.79% of valid votes. His rival Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party received 59,826,041 votes, or 48.21%.

Ecopetrol announced on 17 August 2026 that it had completed the purchase of about 51% of Brava Energia, a Brazilian oil and gas producer. It paid about US$1.2 billion, based on an average rate of R$5.12 per US dollar.

The stake came in two parts. A public tender offer on the B3 stock exchange in São Paulo delivered about 25%, and a share purchase agreement dated 23 April 2026 added about 26%.

Ecopetrol says Brava held proved reserves of about 459 million barrels of oil equivalent at the end of 2025. Ecopetrol also says Brava produced about 78.8 thousand barrels a day in the first half of 2026, and funded the deal through a loan from another Ecopetrol subsidiary.

Grupo Energía Bogotá, known as GEB, completed on 16 July 2026 the purchase of the remaining 49% of four Brazilian power-transmission companies. The seller was Axia Energia, a Brazilian power company, and the deal now gives GEB full ownership of lines that total 1,086 kilometres in six states.

GEB says the four companies earned an EBITDA, a measure of operating profit, of R$212 million (about US$39 million) in 2025. Brazil’s power regulator ANEEL, its competition authority CADE and the development bank BNDES gave their approvals.

On 15 May 2026, GEB and the Canadian pension investor La Caisse agreed to merge their Brazilian grid assets into a 50/50 company called Verene Energia. It would hold 26 transmission concessions, more than 9,000 kilometres of lines and operations in 17 states.

Neither partner has disclosed a price, and La Caisse says financial close is expected by the fourth quarter of 2026. We found no closing notice from either partner, so we treat the deal as agreed and its completion as unconfirmed.

ISA Energia Brasil, the Brazilian arm of Colombian grid company ISA, opened Brazil’s longest underground transmission line in São Paulo in March 2026. According to the company’s statements at the opening, the Riacho Grande project cost R$1.1 billion (about US$200 million) and was delivered ahead of its contract deadline.

Background in Plain Words

Brazil needs new power lines to carry wind and solar output to its cities. Its regulator awards transmission concessions that pay fixed, inflation-linked revenue, which is why foreign utilities like the business.

ISA is part of the Ecopetrol group, which bought the Colombian state’s majority stake in ISA in 2021. Ecopetrol’s own filings describe that purchase, so the oil company now has exposure to both Brazilian oil and Brazilian grids.

All dollar figures here use the Banco Central do Brasil rate for Friday, 6 November 2026, of R$5.5013 per US$1. Ecopetrol’s own figure uses the rate it states.

What Is Not Known

Whether Lula’s win changes any company plan has not been confirmed. We found no filing from Ecopetrol, GEB or ISA that links a new Brazilian investment to the election result.

The final price of the Verene merger is unknown. We did not find a company filing that gives it.

What It Means for US Readers

Investors holding Ecopetrol’s New York shares now own part of a business that earns reais as well as dollars. A weaker Brazilian currency lowers the dollar value of those earnings.

Colombian groups are buying in that market for the long term, and the deals above were struck at earlier prices. More coverage is on our Brazil page.

Frequently Asked Questions

Did Colombian firms invest in Brazil because Lula won?

No filing says so. Ecopetrol completed its Brava purchase on 17 August, and GEB closed its transmission purchase on 16 July, both before the 25 October runoff.

How much did Ecopetrol pay for Brava Energia?

Ecopetrol says it paid about US$1.2 billion for roughly 51% of Brava. It used an average rate of R$5.12 per US dollar.

Is the GEB and La Caisse merger finished?

We could not confirm it. The agreement was signed on 15 May 2026, and La Caisse then expected financial close by the fourth quarter of 2026.

Why should US investors care?

Ecopetrol trades on the New York Stock Exchange as EC. Its earnings now include Brazilian oil production and, through ISA, Brazilian power lines.

Sources: Superior Electoral Court of Brazil (TSE), runoff results, 25 October 2026, tse.jus.br; Ecopetrol, Form 6-K filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, 17 August 2026, sec.gov; La Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, Verene Energia release, 15 May 2026, lacaisse.com; Grupo Energía Bogotá, release on four Brazilian concessions, 16 July 2026; Banco Central do Brasil, PTAX rate, 6 November 2026, bcb.gov.br. All read 7 November 2026.